Crystal Palace v Everton FA Cup Tips: Back 14/1 Odds Boost on Lerma and Onana

Dyche's Everton are on a three game losing streak

Everton head to Crystal Palace to kick off the FA Cup third round action on Thursday and, with both sides in poor form, our tipster Alex Boyes has found two bets at [8/1] and [14/1]...

  • Eze and Olise propel Palace back to winning ways

  • Three straight defeats a concern for Dyche

  • Everton have reached 13 FA Cup finals winning five


Everton have a much stronger association with the FA Cup than Crystal Palace. The Toffees have won the competition five times - most recently in 1995 under Joe Royle - the joint-10th most of any side.

Palace, meanwhile, have reached the final on two occasions and lost both; in 1989-90 (v Manchester United in a replay) and in 2015-16 (also v Man Utd - 2-1). If Palace meet Manchester United this season, they probably have a chance of enacting some revenge.

History lessons aside, it's hard to know exactly how to look at this game from both a viewing and betting perspective. Both sides are in poor league form, with Palace picking up just five points from their last five Premier League games (W1 D2 L2), and Everton just six (W2 D0 L3). In fact, Sean Dyche's side are on a three-game losing run and were also knocked out of the League Cup (on pens) since their last victory.

League form doesn't always indicate how a cup match will go, of course, and when you throw in expected changes for both sides, it's hard to know how to play this game.

Maybe both managers will surprise us and play strong sides - as a viewer I hope that to be the case, and certainly as a bettor I do too. I did notice Everton's side in their recent League Cup match was as strong as could be, and surely the alarming form of both sides means both men could do with a win no matter the competition.

Tale of the tape

We'll be looking predominately at player markets here as I do not want to call this one. I'm not on my own there either - the Betfair Sportsbook has Palace as slight favourites at 7/52.40, with Everton priced at 13/82.63 in the match odds 90 market. The draw by the way is 17/102.70.

I'm not surprised to see the prices somewhat close together based on recent form, but also some of the underlying figures. Only Burnley and Sheffield United - the current bottom two - have scored fewer Premier League goals than Palace (22), whilst only the aforementioned three, plus Man Utd and Luton have netted fewer than Everton (24).

In fact, of Everton's 20 league games this season, only seven have seen both teams find the net (35%) - the lowest such ratio in the top-flight, whilst only 10 of Palace's 20 have seen Over 2.5 goals (50%) - also the lowest such ratio in the Premier League. No wonder under 2.5 is trading at 8/111.73.

I wouldn't be put off by Under 1.5 9/43.25 by the way, though it might not make for exciting viewing, cheering on miss after miss.

There's also the no goals option, of course. Yes, I mean the game ending 0-0, but don't dive in on the Under 0.5 goals price of 17/29.50, when you can back the same thing at a bigger price.

Head to the first goalscorer markets and look for No Goalscorer - which is currently priced at 8/19.00. If you like the sound of the 0-0, then this is the way to play it as own goals do not count, therefore our bet will run on if someone decides to smash it into their own net.

If you simply back Under 0.5 17/29.50 or even the 0-0 correct score 8/19.00, an own goal would mean a loser. The game could end 2-2 and if four own goals were scored, our No goalscorer bet would still be a winner.

Back No Goalscorer in the First Goalscorer market @ 8/19.00

Bet now

Betfair OddsBoost the way to play

My second bet is somewhat pinned on the managers not making too many changes, but I think we should be safe. It involves Amadou Onana and Jefferson Lerma committing fouls.

Let me start by saying they managed seven between them in their last match - Onana three (v Wolves) and Lerma four (v Brentford). They also sit near the top of their sides in the most fouls per 90 category.

In Onana's case, because Idrissa Gana Gueye is off to AFCON and the injury to Doucoure, only Beto (1.8) manages more than the Senegalese-born-Belgian (1.7). For Palace, only Jordan Ayew (1.9) - another heading to the Ivory Coast for AFCON - averages more than Lerma (1.7). That shouldn't surprise us.

It's 18/54.60 that both players commit 2 or more fouls in this match. The direct running of Eze and Olise should cause all sorts of issues for Onana, while Lerma will have to deal with covering the likes of Harrison, McNeil and James Garner, who all love carrying the ball, which should lead to drawing fouls.

I won't put anyone off the above 18/54.60 poke, but the Betfair Traders have boosted both Lerma and Onana to commit 1 or more fouls in both halves up to 14/115.00 (from 11/1), and that looks more like my kind of bet.

Let us hope the game becomes a real midfield battle, and the usual suspects do what they do best - break up the play by any means necessary.


Read Lewis Jones take on Newcastle - and why you should Lay them at Sunderland!

Recommended bets

Back Lerma and Onana to commit 1 or more fouls in each half @ 14/115.00 (was 11/1)

Back No Goalscorer in the First Goalscorer market @ 8/19.00

Discover the latest articles