Buxton v Morecambe: Expect goals with Diego for BBC televised FA Cup tie

Buxton v Morecambe
Saturday 4th December, kick-off 12:45

Silverlands a fortress for Bucks this term

Buxton are looking to reach the FA Cup third round for only the second time in their history - their only previous win over Football League opponents in the competition was in the second round in 1951-52. But these days non-league teams have really bridged the gap as we saw with St Albans in round one. Bromley performed with credit against Rotherham recently, and I'll be looking forward to another visit to Hayes Lane this weekend to see the Kent club. They are going well.

It's a fine achievement, as was beating York in the first phase considering they play in the seventh tier of English football and not only have they earned a realistic crack of advancing into a potential money-spinning tie in the next phase, but for the Unibond Premier outfit, they will be playing in front of the BBC cameras for the lunchtime kick-off. Not bad for the lowest-ranked time left in the competition.

They are priced up as underdogs at 7.06/1 and could be bigger despite home advantage at the Silverlands, which is exactly how one of their experienced players Ben Turner sees it. He said: "We should be totally and absolutely the underdogs. We don't outscore them in any of those things and that is just a fact of it."

Turner is one of two with some big game experience as he enjoyed a decent league career with the likes of Cardiff, Burton and Coventry. Thirty-five year-old striker Jamie Ward is another who has played at Championship level, and whilst he is in the twilight of his career, he had a good scoring record at Derby, Chesterfield and Torquay.

The Bucks boast a fine record at home this term in the league, and they are yet to lose with six wins and a pair of draws. And with the best goal difference in the division, it's easy to see why they have done so well to get this far.

The York success was on the road 0-1, and they were taken to a replay by Kettering in two matches that threw up plenty of goals.

Robinson will be nervy off the back of a Dons drubbing

It's been a season of League One struggle for Morecambe as teams with huge budgets are still meandering around mid-table with far greater spending power than Stephen Robinson's side. They were hammered at the weekend by MK Dons at home 0-4, and the loss put them down to 20th.

Crewe are the favourites to go down at 1.21/5, and Morecambe aren't too far behind in the Relegation betting at 1.84/5. Anymore home drubbings and they'll be the same price as the Alex.

If they defend like they did against Liam Manning's side, I cannot say I would be in a mad rush to back them at 4/11 on the Sportsbook. The goals were awful, and Robinson has admitted his defence continue to make errors at the back and gift opponents the advantage.

They have conceded 37 all season (17 at the Mazuma), and missing Cole Stockton up front has limited their hold-up play. The midfield three of Alfie McCalmont, Callum Jones and Shane McLoughlin played okay on Saturday, but if you can't score and can't defend, it's a recipe for disaster.

Match Odds

According to Opta; since joining the Football League, Morecambe have played five ties against non-league opponents and been eliminated in two of those, losing to Dover Athletic in 2014-15 and FC Halifax Town in 2018-19.

That certainly gives us food for thought considering their away price to win at 1.4840/85. The golden rule I have always been taught with football betting is never back odds on away from home. And while I can bend it slightly in League One with teams at 1.910/11, the Shrimps are neither and are an appalling price. In fact, layers will probably be hovering over the pink button as I speak as I can see a few going after them on Saturday.

Buxton at 7.26/1 gives us a team that will be fighting for their lives. I'm not saying every player doesn't, but a potential game against a Manchester United or Liverpool is something that could be a possibility.

I remember watching Oxford v Wycombe in the League One play-off final three years ago and was texting a friend during it. Oxford are a lovely footballing side to watch, but on the day, we both sensed that Wanderers were just "up for it". Wycombe were running all over the pitch that day, and Buxton will no doubt sense they can get something from this game.

I have mentioned their goal difference of +22 and fine home record. Morecambe have lost six on the road and conceded 20, which is the third most in the division. Up against a team that have lost just once, albeit in the seventh tier on their own patch, this is a horrible game for Robinson.

The back on the Exchange obviously throws up the trading angle from 7.26/1 if they score early. And they could well do as they have netted in every match at Silverlands this term.

Market is expecting goals

Morecambe have only kept four clean sheets all season, although one of them did come in the previous FA Cup tie against Newport - winning 1-0.

Buxton's previous cup tie involved 33 shots in total and they were aggressive against their first round opponents the Minstermen. Bizarrely the York fixture was manager Steve Cunningham's first in charge as the club had previously sacked Gary Hayward and Mark Ward in the week building up to their biggest game. Ward had taken a holiday instead of being at the tie, so it was a rather quirky and curious reason for the the exit.

That headline doesn't mask anything with the Over 2.5 priced up on Thursday night at 1.4840/85 on the Exchange. It's too short, but we can play on the Betbuilder with a multiple and go Over 2.5 and Buxton to win that pays 8/1.

Can Diego produce something spectacular?

Bucks forward Diego De Girolamo is a man on a mission. The former Sheffield United and Italian U-18s youngster netted the winner against York with a lovely left-footed lob finish and he seems to thrive on the big occasion. "I perform better with pressure I think," the forward said. "I enjoy my friends and family watching from the stands." Indeed, the 1000 travelling Buxton fans at York went wild.

His 27 goals in 31 matches during the 2019/20 season earned him the accolade of the supporters' player of the year. The 25-year-old already has 14 this term and takes penalties. He looks a good bet on the Anytime Scorer options.

Wes McDonald replaced Morecambe's top-scorer Cole Stockton last Saturday, and Stockton was a huge miss as he has 15 goals in 22 appearances this term.

KEY OPTA STAT: Morecambe are looking to reach the FA Cup third round for only the fifth time in their history and in back-to-back seasons for the first time - after reaching that stage last season they were beaten 4-0 by Chelsea.