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Blackburn Rovers should make the two-division gap in front of home support
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Wrexham know set-pieces will be important to their chances
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Back the hosts to win and both sides to score at 15/82.88
Blackburn Rovers v Wrexham - Mon, 19:30
The Wrexham story continues on Monday night as they travel to Championship side Blackburn Rovers in the fourth round of the FA Cup.
Wrexham's record has been impressive since the arrival of Phil Parkinson, reaching the final of the FA Trophy in his first campaign and the same spot in the FA Cup last season having dispatched of second tier play-off finalists Coventry City and scoring six over two games against promotion-bound Sheffield United.
They have reached the fourth round this year by dispatching of fellow League Two promotion contenders Mansfield Town, runaway National League South runaway leaders Yeovil Town and long-time rivals Shrewsbury Town and their big-match experience stands them in good stead in front of an incredible 7000-strong away following at Ewood Park.
However, there are two teams in this tie and though they are currently languishing towards the bottom end of the Championship table, Blackburn Rovers proved in round three against League One Cambridge United that they are capable of blowing teams away.
Fluent Rovers creating plenty
We shouldn't get carried away with the narrative around the visitors or recent results. Blackburn Rovers are still the superior team in this football match.
Their league form has been poor. They have lost seven of their last ten league matches while disappointing home draws against Rotherham United and Huddersfield Town have done little to quieten dissenting voices. However, the only two defeats they have suffered in their last seven at home have come against title challengers Leeds United and an improving Watford.
What they are is strong going forward. They play a brand of football that is expansive, open and leads to plenty of chances being created - they sit fourth in the xG for table in the Championship behind only the three recently-relegated outfits.
They showed their quality against League One Cambridge, putting five past Neil Harris' side. They have scored in their last five matches and their last five at home. Sammie Szmodics shows few signs of slowing down, the uber-talented Adam Wharton remains after a reported bid was knocked back and there is more depth with the returns of Sam Gallagher and Joe Rankin-Costello.
Set-pieces important for Wrexham
Despite that. And despite Wrexham not being fantastic on the road recently (two wins in six matches), the club famously owned by Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney will still fancy their chances of causing an upset.
While the hosts are excellent going forward, they leave a lot to be desired defensively. They have conceded the most goals in the Championship, have not kept a clean sheet since the end of November and, perhaps crucially, have conceded more set-piece goals than any other side.
That will be music to the ears of a team that have scored 14 goals from set-piece situations this season, possessing excellent delivery from corners and free-kicks, Ben Tozer's famously long throw and an array of players standing over six foot to attack the ball. It may cliche to suggest the lower league side will rely on set-pieces but they will absolutely play a part here.
Their away matches haven't often contained a lot of goals but with the hosts so strong going forward, Wrexham missing key men at the back (Aaron Hayden, Jacob Mendy, Jordan Tunnicliffe and Will Boyle are unavailable) and their being a clear discrepancy in how both sides attack and defend set-pieces, this has the potential to be a really fun evening of football.
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