Yeovil Town v Stevenage: Make a List why visitors can win

FA Cup 2nd Round
Saturday December 4 Kick-off 17:30 BBC2
Yeovil v Stevenage

Does Paul Tisdale's appointment as Stevenage manager change everything? It certainly made me think twice on my initial assessment that Boro were there for the taking down south at Yeovil, who had a history of FA Cup giant killing before they joined the Football League (and fell out of it again 16 years later).

They are one of the most successful non-league teams in the FA Cup. Since their return to non-league, they lost in the first round two years ago and the second last year. Tisdale knows what it is like to be on the wrong end of a result as a league manager, as Exeter - his long-term employers - lost at Warrington in a Friday night televised tie in 2014.

Yeovil on a good run

The Huish Park hosts might be bang in mid-table of the National League, but they have been on a fine run of late. They are 3.185/40 in the match market, with the visitors 2.56/4 and the draw 3.711/4.

As a result of Tuesday's win at big-spending Wrexham, the Glovers have lost just once in 12 league and FA Cup matches, winning four straight games going into last Saturday's 1-1 draw with bottom club Dover.

While a home record of three wins, three draws and three defeats suggests any visiting side would have a chance, they need to unpick a tight defence. Yeovil have conceded just nine goals at home and only six away, giving them the league's second meanest defence. But I note they are one of the lowest scorers, netting 19 times in 17 games, giving them a +4 goal difference.

Contrast that with Stevenage's poor run - they are 21st in League Two with their only win of note in 10 games being the FA Cup first round win over Milton Keynes. There was much to chew on for Tisdale as he approaches this potentially tricky FA Cup tie with new charges.

Reports suggest the hosts are the "youngest team in the division". That means they could be fearless, but more reasonably reflects - with the lack of substitutes available - their lack of experience cannot be supplemented from the bench. The loan market won't help for the FA Cup (players have to be registered for seven days). On that basis, it is likely that experience - and numbers - will not give the TV cameras the upset they might be expecting. The visitors could win in 90 minutes.

Stevenage, say Opta, have won 11 of their 13 ties against non-league opposition. I expect that percentage to increase, despite not winning in their last five trips to the Glovers.

Expect a low scoring game

Given the tight Yeovil defence, the one up front in attack and the fact that two of their top scorers are injured, the best chance they have to win is to score once and "park the bus". And given that Stevenage are not in a hugely confident place either, anything above two goals from them seems unlikely. Therefore, I think the chances of under 2.5 goals at 2.111/10 are strong.

Charlie Wakefield and Adi Yussuf, who both have Football League experience, are the top scorers for the hosts on three apiece, while midfielder Sonny Blu Lo-Everton and defender Josh Staunton contributed the goals that beat Wrexham.

Stevenage do have some quality. Elliott List has eight strikes from midfield and Tisdale says he has seen much to please him - even before he took the job. He's not the type to go into a role blind, or into one that he thinks is destined to fail.

Visitors to edge tight tie

If you want to take the really low-scoring risk, there could be just one goal in it, at [5-2] for under 1.5 goals on Sportsbook. But on that basis you could also take 1-0 to Yeovil @ [7-1] and 1-0 to Stevenage @ [13-2], ignoring 0-0 of course.

With List taking charge of chances and scoring opportunities, a 2-0 win for the visitors @ [9-1] seems about right to me.

List heads the market at [5-1] to score first, while Luke Norris's experience and reputation puts him in at [11-2]. That seems fair enough. Lo-Everton has bumped himself up to [17-2] after netting on Tuesday. Aside from Yussuf at [11-2], Yeovil's options in the absence of Quigley are Wakefield and Knowles, who can hopefully return. Therefore I think List has to be the pick.