There's a growing swell of opinion which suggests that Poland may be set for a successful Euro 2012. I'm not talking about off the field, where it's going to be difficult to hide the bare facts about a significant minority of their fans, but on it. Poland spent a while in the international footballing wilderness, before qualifying for the World Cup in 2002, and following that up with another World Cup qualification in 2006 and reaching Euro 2008. Despite all of that, they've been negligible as a force at World or European level since the early 1980s, and it takes quite a leap of faith to see that changing this year. As co-hosts, boasting a group of honest players, they have proved nothing, nothing at all.
Much of the focus in the various TV and newspaper previews that we'll be watching in the weeks building up to the tournament will be on two players: Arsenal's excellent goalkeeper Wojcech Szczesny and the Borussia Dortmund hero Robert Lewandowski. Both have had brilliant seasons, and both would have a pretty good chance at getting into many of the other teams at the tournament, but beneath them, with the admirable exception of Jakub "Kuba" Blaszczykowski, the standard rather falls away. That makes Poland an interesting team to oppose when the tournament kicks off. When the hoary old question: "who's your dark horse?" is asked, the presence of those two players in particular will push Poland to the forefront of those minds which haven't necessarily thought things through. And it will more than likely drive down their price. I might be missing another Greece in the shape of the 2012 Polish vintage, but it seems unlikely.
Our job as punters is to see the real truth of a situation, not some kind of accepted reality, and that's what many people are in danger of doing with Poland. They're 1.8910/11 to qualify from Group A, and that looks too short.
They might be better organised under Francisek Smuda, but remember that this is a team which failed to qualify from their group at both the 2002 and 2006 World Cup finals, and also at Euro 2008. There'll be much talk about the home advantage that the Poles will enjoy at the new National Stadium in Warsaw, as well as in Wroclaw, but they're up against teams who have performed notably well in hostile environments in qualifying.
Greece drew in both Croatia and Latvia, and won in Georgia and Israel. Czech Republic won 4-1 in Lithuania, and then beat Montenegro home and away in a play-off match for which they were expected to be vulnerable. And Russia won away against the Republic of Ireland, and were also victorious in both Macedonia and Slovakia. You can argue about the strength about some of those countries, but a close look at qualifying shows that Poland's three group opponents have regularly produced the kind of performance which means that they deserve to be at Euro 2012. The Poles haven't done any such thing. That's not their fault of course, but it adds a sizeable question mark.
A lazy reading of Poland's chances suggests that the success of Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga gives Smuda's team a chance, but that seriously overstates the influence of the three Dortmund players who are likely to be in the squad. I've already expressed my ambition for Lewandowski, but Lukas Piszczek has been nothing more than a solid influence at right back, and while Blaszczykowski is a good player, only Lewandowski could be described as a key performer. I've watched a lot of the Bundesliga this season, and while the quality of young German players is evident, I haven't come away from too many matches thinking: "blimey, the Poles have got some ammunition this summer."
There's no anti Polish sentiment here: I'm old enough to have enjoyed watching the latter stages of the careers of both Kazimierz Deyna and Grzegorz Lato and as a lifelong Serie A fan, the brilliance of Zbigniew Boniek lit up my teenage years. There may be a new Boniek in this squad in the shape of Lewandowski, and at a push you could make a case for Blaszczykowski being the new Lato. With another nod to history, I'd take Szczesny over Jan Tomaszewski, but I don't see much beneath. That Polish team of the 1970s and 1980s had players such as Andrej Szarmach, Wladislaw Smuda, Marek Kusto and Wlodzimierz Smolarek. The 2012 vintage, despite the presence of one of my favourite current players, Ludovic Obraniak, just doesn't match up, and Group A is a lot tougher than it looks.
Poland are currently trading at 70.069/1 to win Euro 2012, having traded at a high of 95.094/1, and while that doesn't indicate a gigantic gamble, it does indicate that there's a measure of support for the co-hosts.
I think that this opinion might grow in the weeks up to the tournament, with the names of Lewandowski and Szczesny at its forefront, and I think that it's pretty much entirely wrong. A lay of Poland at 1.8910/11 to qualify from Group A looks more and more tempting as the build up to Euro 2012 continues. They'll get shorter though, so wait a while, and then snap up a value lay which could prove happily profitable.