Wales v Denmark
Live on BBC1
Wales hoping for Euro 2016 repeat
The group finishing positions have gone pretty much to plan in this Euros but many would have scribbled in Wales for third or even fourth in Group C.
Switzerland are 13th in the FIFA World Rankings and Turkey were considered dark horses. But, just as they did in Euro 2016, Wales have punched above their weight.
Rescuing a point against Switzerland showed their tenacity in a game where they struggled a little but then Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey came out to play and showed their class in a 2-0 (that could have been 5-0) win over the Turks.
With four points in the bag, that was basically enough and allowed Robert Page to protect some of his yellow-carded players away to Italy in Rome.
They lost 1-0 but showed they were no pushovers, especially with the handicap of having to play with 10 men for the last 35 minutes after Ethan Ampadu's red card.
Wales just seem to have a nice mix for tournament football: a confident and impressive goalkeeper in Danny Ward, defensive strength across the back four, a speedster in Daniel James to keep rivals on the back foot, the class of Bale and Ramsey and a useful target man in Kieffer Moore.
Add in the togetherness that makes them greater than the sum of these already useful parts and Wales should not be taken lightly.
Draw has opened up for Danes
This has already been an extraordinary tournament for Denmark that started early in the group stage.
Having to deal with the distressing scenes following star man Christian Eriksen's cardiac arrest after 40 minutes of their opening game against Finland meant no-one would have blamed them for bowing out with three defeats.
They did, of course, lose twice after playing out the rest of the match against Finland and coming out with a 1-0 defeat before following that with a 2-1 loss to Belgium.
But the Belgium game was a turning point. By then, the news of Eriksen was much, much better and it meant an incredible atmosphere at the Parken Stadium for match two and they simply blew the Belgians away for the first 45 minutes.
A 1-0 lead could have been much more but, inevitably, the intensity dropped after the break and Roberto Martinez's men showed their class to win 2-1.
However, many had noted that despite managing just a single goal in those two losses, Denmark were creating chances galore.
In theory, someone was in for a spanking and that team were Russia who the Danes blasted 4-1 to somehow pinch second place in the group and make it to the last 16.
Now, they see a draw which has Belgium, Italy, France, Spain and Portugal in the other half.
Is a fairy-story waiting to be written? Are the Danes now a bet at 22.021/1 to go on and lift the trophy.
After playing all three games in front of a pumped-up crowd in Copenhagen, Denmark won't have home advantage in Amsterdam for this one.
However, the Danes will still outnumber the Welsh fans among the 16,000 crowd. Wales supporters are banned from entering the country due to COVID rules but that doesn't apply to the Danes as Denmark is part of the European Union. They have a 12-hour window to enter, watch and leave.
Estimates suggest 1,400 Danes in the 16,000 crowd, with just a handful of Welsh.
In the 90 minutes betting, Denmark are 1.9110/11 to take victory while Wales are 5.49/2, a price that will appeal to plenty. The Draw at full-time is 3.412/5.
History doesn't help draw backers as there has been a positive result in all 10 previous meetings: Denmark have won six and Wales four.
Although Denmark lack an obvious scorer, Yussuf Poulsen has netted in the last two games and they found goals from elsewhere against Russia.
But after the magical atmosphere of Copenhagen, will they feel a slight dip in adrenaline and energy levels here? It's a tough game to call. Both have great stories to continue; both will feel the opposition is beatable.
If absolutely pushed I'd go with Denmark (10th in the FIFA rankings) but Wales are the value. Overall, I'll find my bets elsewhere.
Denmark's last two games witnessed three and five goals respectively so, on that basis, the hefty 2.6613/8 for Over 2.5 goals looks appealing.
By contrast, Unders landed in Wales' three group matches although Bale missed a penalty in the 2-0 win over Turkey. Under 2.5 is just 1.584/7.
It's a similar, if slightly less exaggerated, case in Both teams to Score and I'm going to play Yes at 2.3611/8.
Wales have plenty of attacking thrust and BTTS has landed in Denmark's last two games. I'd have this as more of a pick 'em.
For those going in-play, Wales scored goals after 74 minutes against Switzerland and in injury-time against Turkey. Bale missed a late sitter against Italy on 75 so the Welsh remain dangerous in the latter stages.
Gareth Bale is still a massive presence for Wales but perhaps no longer the goalscoring golden boy of old.
The shift is seen in the fact that he seems just as content or likely to use his exceptional skills to assist rather than score.
He laid on both goals against Turkey but has yet to hit the net in Euro 2020: in other words, for Bale so far it's assists 2, goals 0.
And yet, he's 7/1 for an assist against Denmark but 11/4 to score anytime. The former is the play.
He loves setting up Ramsey, could pick out Moore with a cross or even slide in the marauding James. That assist price looks generous against a Denmark side which has conceded in all three games.
On the Bet Builder, Bale to assist and Both Teams to Score is 11.70.
Denmark recorded 59 shots in the group stages, with their average of 19.7 shots-per-game their highest on record in a major tournament (Euros and World Cup). Having converted just one of their first 44 shots in this tournament (2%), Denmark scored with four of their last 15 shots against Russia last time out (27%).
For more tips and insight on Saturday's action check out the latest Daily Euros Preview podcast from the Football...Only Bettor team