England v Germany
Tuesday 29 June, 17:00 BST kick-off
Live on BBC One
Defence best form of attack for England
Well, well, well after all the permutations and head-scratching about who England would face it turns out that old rivals Germany will provide their last-16 opposition at Wembley on Tuesday.
It'll obviously conjure up all the old memories of Euro 96, Italia 90 and the rest, but in truth that's all water under the bridge and most of Gareth Southgate's players won't remember or weren't even born to see that old heartbreak.
That's not to say that this game couldn't also go the distance, as although he's got some of the brightest young forwards in Europe, Southgate's pragmatism is shining through with clean sheets prioritised over all-out attack.
England have kept three opening clean sheets for the first tournament since 1966, which is actually the last time they beat Germany in a knockout game - losing three since, with two of those the penalty shootout epics.
Although home fans won't like it, defence is the best form of attack for England. Against Portugal, Germany showed just what they can do if you give their wing-backs space, with Kimmich and Gosens having a hand in all four goals, yet against France and Hungary they were kept largely quiet and the Germans struggled as a result.
Southgate could even turn to his three-at-the-back formation to match-up with Joachim Low's outfit, and if England are to progress in what is a wide-open half of the draw, then it'll be a tight and tough tussle.
The Three Lions have plenty of selection questions to answer, Jack Grealish being the main one behind the actual formation, and whether Jordan Henderson is included to add experience in that midfield engine room.
Germany angling for a shoot-out
Germany, and England for that matter, are both 9.517/2 to win on penalties and that will prove popular given the history, but Low would much prefer an open, expansive game for his side to express themselves.
Low knows Germany have struggled to break down teams and perhaps cannot match a tough-tackling power-based side, and he's almost goading the Three Lions to come out attacking to give his side a bigger chance.
"Hungary parked the bus, with everyone behind the ball, entered every duel, against England it will be a totally different match," Low said. "They are playing at home, they want to attack, it's going to be an open match."
Germany will be keen to make the most of their reprieve, having been six minutes from being dumped out by Hungary, but I doubt they'll get the open game they want against Southgate's England.
The three-times winners have made the semi-finals at least in the last three Euros, and Low has few selections issues judging on his settled teams throught the group stages.
Can Germany drag favourites England into a slugfest?
England's last four victories have been 1-0s, three of the last four meetings with Germany have produced under 1.5 goals and Germany have conceded at least once in their last eight major tournament matches.
A 1-0 home win is priced at 7.513/2 and certainly has a weight of stats behind it. It's certainly the most obvious way for the Three Lions to bag a first ever European Championship knockout victory in 90 minutes.
They're slight 2.55 favourites to win inside the distance, with Germany 2.915/8, and the teams 1.84/5 and 2.01/1 respectively to qualify. Either team to win on penalties is 5.04/1 and spot-kicks will be all the talk before this game given the history.
The first goal could be crucial, and while England have shown they can defend Germany went behind in all three group games inside 25 minutes. England either scored or hit the post inside 13 minutes of all three group games so 1.9110/11 on them to score first would be a sensible option.
Half-time and in-play pointers
England's fast starts have been a theme in the Euros as they've scored the opener inside five minutes in three of their last four knockout games in the tournament - but have gone on to lose all four of them, three of them on penalties!
That gives you the option of backing the Germans in-play should England's fast-starting trend continue.
You've got another in-play option based on the half-time result, as 10 of Germany's last 11 fixtures have finished with the same result as it was after 45 minutes.
Another surprising oddity to keep an eye on for in-play bettors is the 50th to the 70th minute of the game, when we're almost guaranteed a goal given there's been one in six of England's last eight games.
Germany have also spookily seen five of the last 10 goals scored in their games go in during that same period, with Kai Havertz bagging both his Euro 2020 goals during that magical 20-minute section.
Can Sterling star again?
Raheem Sterling came into the tournament under a cloud, but he's responded with both of England's goals to take his international form to 14 goals in his last 19 England games. All 16 of Sterling's England goals have come in competitive games.
Sterling is 3.7511/4 to score anytime and still looking like being a value option, with Kai Havertz a touch shorter at 3.613/5 to score his third goal of the tournament.
Jack Grealish gave us a winner with an assist against the Czech Republic and if he's named in the starting XI then I'll be taking the 4.57/2 on him setting up another goal. It's still a big IF though given Southgate's more defensive nature.
Both Southgate and Low have mentioned England's set pieces and the Germany boss being well aware of them could lead to some nerves defending free kicks and corners, especially as Kieran Trippier is a decent bet to be starting again.
Harry Maguire at 15.014/1 and John Stones, who has already hit the post, at 17.016/1 anytime scorers could be worth a speculative punt given how dangerous they are in the air.
This game is on a knife edge, the first goal could be all-important as both sides would be tough to beat if going a goal ahead, while if it turns into a wide-open shootout then Germany seem more at home in that case than England's more defensive attributes.
One thing there is sure to be though is plenty of nerves, if not plenty of goals.