Spain v France, Saturday 7:45, ITV1.
Match Odds: Spain 1.834/5, France 5.59/2, The Draw 3.613/5.
After a couple of one-sided quarter-finals, this looks like being the first genuinely fascinating tactical battle of the knockout stages. France come into the game on the back of a surprise defeat to Sweden in their final Group D match, but they should provide tough opposition for Spain, who still don't appear to be playing at 100%.
Vicente del Bosque is insisting upon playing with as many creative midfielders as possible. Having initially used a strikerless system against Italy in Spain's opening game, a formation that didn't really work because there were so few forward runs from midfield, he now seems to be using more traditional 4-3-3, with a proper central striker. That forward has been Fernando Torres, and despite a quiet display against Croatia, he'll probably start again here.
Del Bosque has hinted that he might make a change for tomorrow's match, and there's a chance that Cesc Fabregas might get a place in the side. He's scored two very fine goals in the competition so far, and I think Spain need to exploit the fact that France are playing an unfamiliar centre-back partnership, with Laurent Koscielny in for the suspended Philippe Mexes.
That might actually be an upgrade in individual terms - Koscielny had a much better 2011/12 than Mexes - but Spain need to test the French understanding at the back, and not simply play in front of the opposition defence. Fabregas provides that directness.
Laurent Blanc has constrained himself by only bringing three centre-backs to the tournament, so starting Kosicelny is barely a debate.
There's a proper choice in the midfield, however. There, Blanc played a different type of midfield against Sweden, using two holders - Yann M'Vila and Alou Diarra - with Samir Nasri ahead in a 4-2-3-1. This was primarily because Yohan Cabaye was injured, and the Newcastle midfielder will return for this game.
But will Cabaye replace either of the deeper midfielders, or will Blanc look to beef up his midfield with those two players in conjunction with Cabaye? That would mean Nasri moving to the right of the pitch - the position where he started against England in France's first game. Jeremy Menez and Hatem Ben Arfa have played there since, but would be a risk in a game of this magnitude. I think Blanc will go for the conservative option against the wealth of talents in Spain's midfield.
The most interesting individual battle will probably be on the opposite side. Alvaro Arbeloa has been Spain's weakest player so far - Xavi Hernandez spends half the game shouting instructions to him - and I think he might struggle with Franck Ribery, who has been fouled 12 times in the competition so far, the third most of any competing player.
Ribery isn't the most willing player when it comes to his defensive duties, and might let Arbeloa drift past him - but he'll look to pounce on the counter-attack, as he did successfully against Oleg Gusev in France's match against Ukraine. When Ribery's Bayern Munich met Arbeloa's Real Madrid in the Champions League semi-finals, Arbeloa fouled Ribery seven times over the two legs, and was booked at the Bernabeu. Look out for a price of around 3.55/2 for a repeat here.
Spain will also have to be wary of Karim Benzema's drifts towards the left, where he combines excellently with Ribery.
Neither of these sides play with great outright width, but both had a habit of winning lots of corners in the group stage. Spain won 26, France won 25 - between eight and nine each per match. Both are unlikely to win quite so many against stronger opposition than they encountered in the groups, but backing 13 or more at 3.02/1 would be a good price.
But I'm more interested in the Half Time/Full Time market. Spain were at 0-0 at half-time in each of their World Cup 2010 games (winning all 1-0, although the final was won in extra-time).
In this competition, they did the same against Croatia. Against Italy they were 0-0 at half-time and 1-1 at full-time, and against Ireland they were 1-0 at half-time and 4-0 at full-time. The pattern is clear - Spain focus on possession in the first half, then penetration later on. I'm surprised to see Draw / Spain around 4.94/1 in this market.
Recommended bets:
Arbeloa to be shown a card at 3.55/2
Draw/Spain in the Half Time/Full Time market at 4.94/1