England v Italy: No quarter given in tight encounter

James Eastham
24 June 2012

Wayne Rooney will be England's main danger man against the Azzurri

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After sensationally picking 14 out of 18 winners so far, James Eastham reveals the smart way to bet on Sunday night's showdown in Kiev.

Very little to pick between the teams, this looks the closest quarter-final

v draw @ 3.052/1

England v Italy, 19:45 KO, Live on BBC1, Match Odds: England 2.88, Italy 3.05, The Draw 3.05

Match Odds

Pre-tournament there were plenty of opinion-formers willing to bet on England and Italy catching early planes after embarrassing first-round exits.

This was always unlikely: Italy were effectively in a three-horse race as Ireland looked considerably weaker than the other teams in Group C before the finals began, while low expectations surrounding England were virtually worth a couple of points considering how damaging media coverage had been at recent tournaments.

Performances so far show there's little between the teams: both drew 1-1 against the other top sides in their group (Italy v Spain, England v France), both beat their group's wooden-spoon holders (Italy 2-0 v Ireland, England 3-2 v Sweden) and the standard of the football from the two sides has been similar. Italy have been a little more fluent and expansive, but England have demonstrated qualities Italy have yet to reveal - coming from behind to win, and handling a deeply partisan atmosphere (v Ukraine) well.

I make it 50-50, so the prices look about right. With the teams well-matched, the draw would be my pick.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

It's hard to argue with the common view this will be a low-scoring game. The sides will be wary of each other, and neither has shone going forward: Italy have scored in all three games but needed a last-minute Mario Balotelli goal to make it 2-0 against Ireland, while England's late burst resulting in two goals against Sweden looks anomalous compared to the other 90% of their play.

But the prices make over 2.5 goals the value pick. I'd rather be on overs at 2.8815/8 than unders at 1.538/15, because the two defences leave plenty to be desired. There are two excellent goalkeepers on view, but Italy granted Croatia and Ireland more chances than they'd be comfortable with, and England had that lucky goalline break against Ukraine while conceding in their other two games.

Corners Match Odds

Italy have a clear advantage in the corners stakes: they have won 20 to their opponents' 15 in the tournament so far, while England have won just 13 and conceded 24. Italy managed only two corner kicks against Spain, largely because Spain enjoyed 66% of the possession, but then averaged nine corners a game in their final two group matches. England's average of 4.33 corners a game is disappointing, with both France and Ukraine winning more corners in their games against Roy Hodgson's side.

The discrepancy in those figures is enough to persuade me to back Italy in a corners match bet at 1.9110/11.

Correct Score

An alternative to the 90-minute draw would be to pick a stalemate in the correct-score market. 0-0 at 7.06/1 and 1-1 at 6.86/1. are both worth considering.

Best Bet
England v Italy draw after 90 minutes @ 3.052/1
Other Recommended Bet
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.8815/8

James Eastham has picked 14 out of 18 winners on Euro 2012, making 8.89pts profit from 18pts staked. You can follow him on twitter: @james_eastham