The Big Match Tactical View: England v Switzerland

Switzerland's striker shortage should see England keep a third successive Euro 2012 qualifying clean sheet, says Michael Cox, as Fabio Capello has another opportunity to hone his new 4-3-3 formation.

It seems like a long time since England's last Euro 2012 qualifier back in March against Wales, in a contest that was over within the first 15 minutes. In theory, this should be another relatively comfortable victory for England, but with Wayne Rooney and Steven Gerrard unavailable and players mentally and physically fatigued after such a long season, Fabio Capello will have to guard against complacency.

Having favoured a 4-4-2 (sometimes 4-2-3-1) formation during his first couple of years as England manager, Capello now seems to prefer a 4-3-3 shape, having used this system against Wales and Ghana in England's last two matches.

His goalkeeper - Joe Hart - and full-backs - Ashley Cole and Glen Johnson - have started all four qualification games so far, but the centre will probably see the return of England's first-choice partnership of John Terry and Rio Ferdinand. Because of injury, it's the first time those two have started since the pre-World Cup friendly against Japan over a year ago, and since that game, there's been controversy about Terry reclaiming the captaincy from Ferdinand.

The midfield trio seems set to be unchanged from the Wales game - Scott Parker holding, with Jack Wilshere and Frank Lampard just ahead - but there will be changes upfront. Rooney and Andy Carroll have both featured in the last two starting line-ups, but both are unavailable here. Ashley Young, probably England's best performer in the last three games overall, will start on the right, with Darren Bent likely to lead the line after his good game in Cardiff.

The only real question mark seems to be the left wing position, where Stewart Downing, Adam Johnson and James Milner could all play. Downing seems to be the best bet for the role - he played excellently in the Ghana friendly, and it would keep the Aston Villa trio of Downing, Young and Bent together. Six of Bent's nine Aston Villa goals have been assisted by those two wingers.

Switzerland coach Ottmar Hitzfeld has a major selection headache upfront. For his last three qualification games, he chose a partnership of Alexander Frei (captain and all-time leading scorer for his country) and Marco Streller. After a poor performance in the 0-0 with Bulgaria last time out, however, both came in for harsh criticism, and both retired from international football.

Now Switzerland - who hadn't scored in 7 of their last 13 games anyway - have to find an entirely new shape and structure to their attack. Combined with England's good defensive record - just one goal conceded in four qualification games - an England clean sheet at 1.910/11 looks good.

The Swiss have quality in the rest of their side, however. A solid back four also has the attacking threat of Serie A duo Stephan Lichtsteiner and Reto Ziegler from full-back, whilst across the middle a potential quartet of Valon Behrami, Gokhan Inler, Pirmin Schwegler and Tranquilo Barnetta has talent and experience. Hitzfeld's main decision - especially with his lack of strikers - is whether to play a fifth midfielder, which would leave Eren Derdiyok upfront on his own.

England are likely to dominate possession, and Hitzfeld will instruct his players to sit behind the ball and defend resolutely. This Swiss side can often put in excellent defensive displays - in 2006 they didn't concede a single goal at the World Cup and at 2010 they were the only side to keep a clean sheet against eventual winners Spain, in the opening game.

I expect England to spend most of the game around the Swiss penalty area, and for Capello to play with lots of width in order to fire crosses in towards Bent. With this in mind, 1.42/5 for England in the Corners Match Bet market is a fair price, but with the tight Swiss defence I'd be wary of backing a big England win.

Recommended Bets:
Back England to keep a clean sheet @ 1.910/11
Back England in 'Corners Match Bet' @ 1.42/5