Gareth's Good Thing: Pragmatic England, few goals

Euro 2012 Qualification

Montenegro V England, KO Friday 8.0pm

Match Odds: Montenegro 6.05/1, England 1.748/11; The Draw 3.711/4

There will be a white hot atmosphere in the Podgorica City Stadium and England manager Fabio Capello is warning his players of the need to stay calm. There is certainly a chance there will be a few bookings in this match and perhaps even a red card.

After a great start that saw them win their first three games 1-0 and then draw 0-0 at Wembley, things have gone south for Montenegro, including a home draw with Bulgaria and a surprise away defeat to Wales, who are 64 places below them in the world rankings.

That result cost the manager his job, but Montenegro are a talented side who have not lost a home qualification game since Italy beat them 2-0 in March 2009; this will not be at all easy for England.

Montenegro's strength is in defence - they have only conceded three times in their six qualification games. However, they have only scored five and with England needing only to draw to secure their place in the finals, this is match that could be cagey and consequently start off slowly. We can lay there being a goal in the first ten minutes at around 6.05/1 in the First Goal Odds market and that's worthy of consideration. I'm well aware that England's away qualification games have been quite high scoring of late and that they do tend to start quickly before taking their foot off the gas. However, with only a draw required to get the job done, Capello will be happy as long as it stays 0-0. I think all three results are runners in the Match Odds market and in my view the best value bet may be to lay four goals or more in the match at 4.216/5 in the Over/Under 3.5 Goal market.

Belgium V Kazakhstan

Things are getting serious for Belgium as they are only third in their group with two games to go. They may need to win both of them, starting with the home game against Kazakhstan.

But this is a young team that I rate very highly and although their most recent games have not been full of goals, I expect them to be focused and to score at least twice against a defence that's conceded 20 times in eight games. I will be getting involved in betting on their being at least two at any lay price of 6.05/1 or less in the Over/Under 1.5 Goals market.

Best Bet: Montenegro V England, lay over 3.5 goals at 4.216/5, 0.25pts

Recommended Bet: Belgium V Kazakhstan, lay under 1.51/2 goals at anything less than 6.0, 0.5pts

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