Euro 2012 Betting: Montenegro v England

Montenegro v England, Friday 20:00, Sky Sports 1

Montenegro 6.05/1, England 1.748/11, The Draw 3.711/4

Is this current crop of England players - a good blend of youth and experience - the one that will finally discover a way of winning a major tournament? I'm not so sure. I remain unconvinced that there are enough consistent goalscorers in this team and I have a feeling that when the big games come next summer the old guard of Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard, Gareth Barry and co will feature, and fail once again. Which is a shame because in recent times England have looked a far better and more dynamic side when only one of them has played. Fortunately, as punters, we only have to worry about this Friday's match rather than one being played next July.

Match Odds

There's no doubt England are struggling at home. Draws against Montenegro (0-0) and Switzerland (2-2) and a 2-1 reverse in a friendly against France were amongst their many recent failures. They were also lucky that one of Wales' main source of goals these days is Robert Earnshaw rather than Ian Rush, because the former Liverpool man wouldn't have missed that open goal in injury-time if he was still around. Why don't they just play at Old Trafford or Villa Park occasionally if Wembley is so intimidating to the players?

On the road it's a different story though. Andrew Atherley tells us just how good England's record on the road is under Fabio Capello in this article. In a nutshell, it's seven wins from eight in qualifiers, the one time they didn't win was a dead-rubber which they lost in the Ukraine after Rob Green was sent off early on.

That record would normally make 1.748/11 value for another win on foreign soil, were it not for the fact that England don't actually need to win the match. Will the pragmatic Capello go for a win if it's a draw and the final whistle is fast approaching? Will Wayne Rooney be busting a gut to score late on with a trip to Anfield on the cards next Saturday lunch-time? Probably not.

A Montenegro win at 6.05/1 doesn't look a good bet, either. Their results have got worse as the campaign progressed after a bright start and with all due respect to Wales, a 2-1 defeat in Cardiff in their last match isn't the sort of form that suggests you're about to beat England.

An opening bet on the draw at 3.711/4 offers two ways in which we can lay off at a shorter price in-play. The first is that the match heads towards a goalless draw and the second is that Montenegro score first. That would also make the draw price come in. Back-to-lay the draw.

Corners Match Bet

We're not normally in the business of tipping up 1.4640/85 shots here at Betting.Betfair. But this one is too good to ignore.

In the seven matches England have played so far in this campaign, they have won 34 corners and conceded just 12. More significantly, they have won more corners than their opponents in every match (7/7). Montenegro are 4/6 themselves which isn't bad but when they played at Wembley they didn't have one whilst England had three.

I'll let someone like Michael Cox explain some other time what is it about the way England play that leads to a high corner count in their favour and I'll just stick to the bare stats. England are a good price on the corners match bet market.

To be shown a card

Which England player has picked up the most bookings this campaign? The ever-edgy Wayne Rooney? The tough-tackling Scott Parker? Slowcoach John Terry? The answer is James Milner, who has picked up three in six matches (he was suspended for the 0-0 draw against Montenegro after picking up two in his first two matches). This could be a game with a few bookings as the pressure of the occasion gets to some of the players on both sides. If he starts, back Milner to be amongst them once more.

Best Bet:

Back England in the corners match bet @ 1.4640/85

Recommended Bet:

Back James Milner to be shown a card at 3.711/4 or better