England v Montenegro Betting: Strong home record to continue

England are nailed on to beat Montenegro at Wembley on Tuesday night. A price of 1.241/4 for Fabio Capello's men to do just that tells us so and the stats back it up. Despite the World Cup fiasco the Italian's won 71 per cent of his matches which is a higher mark than any other England boss and in home qualifiers his side could not have been more ruthless, winning six out of six so far.

So the more interesting question is how well will they win? The answer, again according to the stats, is very well. In the six competitive games played under Capello at Wembley the home side's scored 25 goals and conceded three which represents an average of 4.66 goals per game. Granted the opponents - Kazakhstan, Andorra, Croatia, Ukraine, Belarus and Bulgaria - have not been from the top bracket but they have been from the same bracket as Tuesday's visitors.

The FIFA rankings tell us that Montenegro are 40th in the world, whereas Bulgaria, who were beaten 4-0 at Wembley in September are 54th and Switzerland, who England beat 3-1 away last time out are 21st . England, who are already back up to sixth after the South African debacle, should have no problem in once again accepting the role of flat track bully in which case a price of 3.02/1 for over 3.5 goals looks good.

So if England do bang in another three, four or five then who will be filling their boots with Jermain Defoe out, Wayne Rooney short of form and fitness and Kevin Davies being named in the squad for the first time? The obvious answer is Peter Crouch and given that he's netted 21 international goals in 40 appearances at a rate of 0.53 goals per game that's hardly surprising. The popular criticism of the Spurs man is that he doesn't score when it matters for his country, but that's not strictly true.

In competitive fixtures for the national team he's got 13 goals in 24 at 0.54 a game in all and at home his record makes even better reading with 11 in 17 at 0.65 a game. A starting place has sometimes been hard to come by for the much-travelled striker but at the moment he is Capello's only fit and proven performer up front and will be a tempting first scorer option. Darren Bent's chances of starting should be good after scoring his first international goal away against Switzerland and being tipped by Fabio Capello for a prominent role in the future.

It's a similar picture at the other end of the pitch with the positions of centre half and goalkeeper being problematic for the manager which may have contributed to Capello's modest record of 10 clean sheets in 31 games (32.25%) which is significantly worse than that of his much maligned predecessor Steve McClaren, whose team kept 11 in his 18 matches (61.11%).

However, in the six competitive games at Wembley that clean sheet percentage rises to 50 and with the issue of goalkeeper resolved, a price of 1.728/11 for a shut out (clean sheet) may tempt. But if you don't have confidence in England not to let in the odd goal, something they've done 18 times under Capello, on their way to a convincing win then predicting a correct score of 3-1 at 12.523/2 or any unquoted could reap a handsome reward.

Recommended Bet:
England to win 3-1 at 12.523/2