Has a team ever come from such an unlikely position to qualify for a major tournament as Armenia might do in Group B this week? The team lost and drew its first two qualifiers (to Ireland and Macedonia) but in winning its last three games (Andorra 3-0, Slovakia 4-0 and Macedonia 4-1), has jumped into third place in the group, and needs to beat Ireland on Tuesday to secure a place in the play-offs.
Armenia are (5.69/2) to win the game, with the draw, which would be enough for Ireland to secure second, (4.3100/30). When the fixture-list was announced for this group, the Irish camp must have fancied they would have already qualified, at least for the play-offs, by this stage - but they could be in for a twitchy evening in Dublin on Tuesday.
Armenia's upturn in fortunes has coincided with two major changes: the arrival of Yura Movsisyan to the side, and a change in coach Vardan Minasyan's formation. Movsisyan was born in Azerbaijan, educated in America and is now playing in Russia, for Dan Petrescu's Kuban Krasnodar, for whom he has scored six goals already. He only made his debut last August but in these qualifiers, he has scored four goals in ten matches - and set up three more in Friday's 4-1 win over Macedonia.
Movsisyan has also benefited from Minasyan switching to a 4-2-3-1 system, featuring Donetsk-based attacking trio, with Metallurg pair Gevorg Ghazarian (left) and Brazil-born Marcos Pizelli (centre) lining up next to Henrik Mkhitaryan, who has been impressing in the Champions League for Shakhtar Donetsk this season. Mkhitaryan has been playing as a holding midfielder for Shakhtar, but when Minasyan played him there, Armenia created little.
Mkhitaryan does drift into the centre but, as he proved against Macedonia with one goal and an assist, he remains the key creative threat in this team.
Behind them, Minasyan has boosted the defensive lines at the back by pairing holding duo Karlen Mkrtchyan and Artur Edigaryan, who were normally competing for the one position. That defensive stability allows the attacking quartet to focus on goals: only four teams (Holland, Germany, Spain and Sweden) have scored more, and their total of 21 is eight more than Ireland and almost twice Russia's 11.
The Armenian squad is on a €3m bonus to reach Euro 2012, and Ireland should beware that they have scored in every away game so far in this campaign. The price for Over 2.5 goals in the game is (2.111/10) and one thing is sure: it won't be a comfortable night for Ireland.
The other winner-takes-all fixture will be in Group H, where Portugal are Denmark are locked at the top on 16 points each.
Portugal beat Iceland 5-3 on Friday night, as fears about Paulo Bento's fall-out with captain Ricardo Carvalho proved justified as a makeshift defence, also missing Pepe, allowed an under-strength Iceland side three second-half goals. Rolando was at fault for two of the goals, as his partnership with Bruno Alves, so solid when they were at Porto together, looked shaky.
And yet Portugal, despite the tensions in the camp, have now won five consecutive games, and only need a draw in Denmark to stay top of the pile. Portugal are (2.526/4) to win the game, and (2.829/5) for the draw.
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