Second legs where the outcome of the tie appears a foregone conclusion are always tricky proposition for bettors. Republic of Ireland's 4-0 win in Estonia in the first leg of their Euro 2012 play-off last Friday night underlined the superiority of Giovanni Trapattoni's side - but can you rely on the Irish to produce a similarly convincing performance considering they can afford to lose by three goals and still go through?
It's reasonable to assume their priority will be managing rather than extending their lead, so the 1.412/5 on a home win holds little appeal. Estonia are 11.521/2 and the draw 4.84/1, but for me this is a market to leave alone.
The fact Estonia had two men sent off played a part in the Republic of Ireland running away with the first leg but there was enough in the performance of both sides and in the final scoreline to suggest goals will be on the agenda this time as well.
Estonia have no choice but to gamble from the start in order to try to get back into the tie, which ought to leave gaps for the Irish to exploit on the counter-attack. The hosts will probably try to keep the game goalless for the opening 25 minutes or so in order to damage Estonia's morale, but I can see the game opening up eventually.
Over 2.5 goals looks a bit big at 2.0621/20 (unders is the 1.9110/11 favourite). Of the two, I'd rather be on overs.
After Estonia had two men sent off in the first leg it's perhaps no surprise the price on a red card occurring in this game is as short as 3.4549/20. Other markets that may attract interest based on how the first leg turned out include Republic of Ireland to win to nil at 1.625/8 and Republic of Ireland with a -1.5 start on the Asian handicap at 2.0621/20.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.0621/20.