Euro 2012: How many goals to finish as top scorer?

Since the European Championships were extended to 16 teams in 1996, there have been five winners of the prestigious honour, with it being shared in 2000. Prior to David Villa, who topped the scoring charts with four goals in 2008, each of the previous four winners netted five times in the competition.

With that in mind, 0-4 goals at 2.486/4 and five goals at 2.829/5 are certainly a good place to start. The number of goals will obviously, to a great extent, be determined by how many games the top scorer plays.

Villa is the only one of the five winners to have played for the eventual champions, with the others all exiting the tournament at either the semi-final stage or, in the case of Savo Milosevic in 2000, the last eight. That suggest that this year's winner will very likely have a maximum of five games to make their mark. Germany's Mario Gomez at 9.89/1 and the Netherlands' Robin van Persie, 13.012/1, currently lead the way.

Elsewhere, the total number of goals in the tournament appears to have little effect on the top goalscorer's final tally. There were a total of just 64 goals and an average of 2.06 in 1996, as opposed to 77 at 2.48 four years ago, yet Alan Shearer still succeeded in outscoring Villa.

Moreover, the African Cup of Nations serves as a useful comparison, adopting an identical format with the exception of an additional third place play-off. Looking at the previous five tournaments, the winner has never exceeded a total of five goals, no matter how many goals were scored in the competition as a whole. In 2008 for example, 99 goals were scored at an average of 3.09, yet Samuel Eto'o top scored with five.

In the Cup of Nations, the top scorer's tally is typically lower than five when there is more than a single winner. In this year's tournament, seven players were tied on three goals, while in 2004, four players ended level on four goals. So in a crowded market of top marksmen at the Euros, 0-4 goals looks preferable at this stage.