Euro 2012: Five European Championship final trends

Michael Lintorn
29 June 2012

Will Spain keep it or is it heading to Italy after a 44-year wait?

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Michael Lintorn ponders what punters can learn from past European Championship finals, picking out several patterns...

"The opener in three of the last four finals came between 51-60 minutes yet a repeat is a massive 13.012/1 possibility."

Winner
This is the fourth time that group rivals have been reunited in the final and on two of the previous three occasions, the team who finished second lifted the trophy, most recently in 2004 when Greece stunned hosts Portugal. Even the exception to the rule, the Germany side who twice denied Czech Republic in 1996, required extra time, so on that evidence a lay of Spain in 90 minutes at 2.265/4 and back of Italy to be crowned champions at 2.568/5 are worth pursuing.

Over/under 2.5 goals
Seven successive European Championship finals have produced under 2.5 goals, so with two defensively savvy sides contesting the latest edition, it is no surprise to see a repeat chalked up at 1.51/2. The last two finals have been the stingiest in the competition's history, each producing just the one goal. Under 1.5 goals is rated a 2.526/4 prospect.

Win method
Of the last seven finals, five were completed in 90 minutes and each was won relatively decisively, the victorious nation keeping a clean sheet in a 1-0 or 2-0 success. Opposing both teams to score is therefore usually a shrewd move, and can be performed at 1.738/11 this time around. The two drawn finals in that period were both concluded in extra time - admittedly with the assistance of the no longer utilised golden goal - without the need for penalties.

Discipline
There hasn't been a sending off on this stage since Yvon Le Roux was booked twice during France's 2-0 triumph over Spain in 1984. There have only been three in this tournament, and two of those in the opener, so a dismissal appears unlikely on Sunday at 4.47/2. There are usually a fair few flashes of yellow in the final though, 14 players entering the referee's notebook in the three this century, so it is no surprise than nine points or more (two for yellow, five for red) is a 1.574/7 fancy.

First goal odds
Fernando Torres became the first player in four instalments to score a first-half final goal at Euro 2008, with every other since the Euros expanded to 16 teams in 1996 being goalless at the break. It is 2.3211/8 for that pattern to re-establish itself this year, and a bet on the side you fancy drawing at half-time and winning at full-time in the half-time/full-time market may appeal. The opener in three of the last four finals came between 51-60 minutes yet a repeat is a massive 13.012/1 possibility.

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