Germany v Greece
To listen to the pundits and experts talk it is not a question as to whether Mario Gomez will score, it's how many. The German striker is expected to terrorise the Greece backline, who, say the detractors, are blinking disbelieving that they got this far.
It is becoming the cliche of the tournament but this time it really could be murder on the Gdansk floor,as they say.
Gomez is hot property. He is the 2.6813/8 favourite for the golden boot - one could debate whether this is value long and hard given 4.407/2 Cristiano Ronaldo is already in the semi-finals, in extraordinary form and on the same number of goals - precisely because of the glut which is expected.
The Bayern Munich man is as short as 2.0421/20 for a goal in this last-eight clash and that is as short as we can remember a striker being in this tournament.
He is reckoned to be so dangerous because Thomas Muller and Lukas Podolski, on the right and left respectively, have been able to get behind defences and provide the ammunition for the big man. Mesut Ozil does some decent probing, too through the middle. But it would surely be folly to reckon Greece are going to give the Germans any space to play.
This could mean Gomez is in for a frustrating night. Greece will press and harry, possibly with two narrow banks of four. Think England sitting deep and repelling. Joachim Louw, the Germany coach, knows what is coming. "It will be like colliding with a rock," he said.
With the possibility that Germany are stifled, they may have to look at set pieces as a way through. Holger Badstuber, who is 21.0020/1, should really do better in the air and he has only one goal for Germany. Muller is a threat here, too but the 3.55 is just not big enough.
As for the Greeks, well, they are not expected to trouble the German defence. They average three attempts per game on target - the lowest in the tournament - and their most 'dangerous' player would appear to be Fanis Gekas, who has had two attempts on target. Gekas is 7.206/1.
Gomes is the 4.30100/30 favourite. Ronaldo was bigger than that last night. Podolski and Muller are 7.807/1 and 9.208/1 respectively. Of the trio, Muller may appeal most.
Perhaps we are being too canny but if Greece set up the way they surely should, Germany could be forced to make changes up front. That makes Miroslav Klose, the shrewd and skilled fox in the box, value to notch. If he comes off the bench, Klose - who scored against the Greeks the last time the sides met - it is obvious that betting him for first goal or to score at any time at 8.007/1 and 4.507/2 (too short) respectively makes less appeal than this market. The 6.205/1 represents good value about a man who outscored Gomez in qualifying.
M Klose last goalscorer at 6.205/1