A good friend of mine, Rupert Fryer, said to me upon England's exit from World Cup 2010 (that most frustrating and disappointing of campaigns for the Three Lions) that it's got to the stage now where all he looks for from England in a summer tournament is that period of time at one point, any point, where he has genuine hope in his heart that his boys, HIS England could really do something. You know, that moment or two of unbridled joy when you think 'this could actually be it. We could genuinely do something here'.
Whether it's the second penalty Gary Lineker scored to take us through against Cameroon in Naples in 1990, or that early (too early) goal against Germany at Wembley during the semi-final of Euro '96, Rupert is always just after that glimmer of hope that springs up among all the weeds of negativity for a time before being horribly pulled out at the root by a refereeing decision, a crass defensive error, or, and this one's exponentially more likely, a deeply-held inability to make the correct decision. Or quite simply: keeping hold of the ball long enough to stop the other team knocking us out. Rupert was bemoaning the fact that he didn't have that feeling once during the entire tournament in South Africa, not even for one second.
And last night in Donetsk, I had that feeling. That eight minute period before Samir Nasri equalised and we finished up grateful for the point I genuinely, in my heart of hearts, thought England were going to do something special in 'Polkraine' this summer. It was the strangest sensation; it happened almost despite myself, flying in the face of everything I've been writing and saying this past month in the build up to the tournament. And isn't that what loving football is all about?
I travel to Kiev today and I hope I have at least a few more of those moments before England go home. It would be incredible to feel that way inside the Olympic Stadium itself during the game against Sweden for example, surrounded by fellow England fans.
Elsewhere, Russia take on Poland this evening in what promises to be one of the most fiercely contested games in the group stage. There is obviously an intense rivalry between the two nations, and I can see this being a tempestuous affair. When you add Russia's lightning quick movement and attacking ability up front, I think Poland will do well to stop Dick Advocaat's men, and they may commit a few acts of indiscipline en route.
The referee for tonight's game is Wolfgang Stark, someone who by my calculations with the information available, has awarded an average of 4.3 cards per game in his last nine games officiating. He is also the man who refereed the Barcelona-Real Madrid Champions League semi-final first leg, a game in which he was all too quick to dismiss Pepe and then promptly sent off his boss, Jose Mourinho.
Stark is not a typical German referee; where other referees around the Bundesliga aren't as ready to produce cards, the man from the Bavarian city of Landshut is much more likely to flash them on a whim, and sometimes the occasion appears to get to him.
Couple this with the fact that the game in Warsaw tonight is likely to be played at a frantic pace and tensions are undoubtedly going to be running high, a price of 2.01/1 for 9 points and above (over 4.5 bookings) looks a decent bet.
We've also seen exactly 2.5 goals per game in Euro 2012 so far, and with a Russian side containing some ruthless finishers and Poland boasting one of Europe's best strikers in Robert Lewandowski, a man in superb goalscoring form, over 2.5 goals at 2.35/4 also looks excellent value.
If you'd rather look at the other side of the group and are feeling a little bit bolder, Czech Republic are a much better team than Greece and were harshly done by against Russia. That game aside, the Czechs rarely concede goals and Greece aren't exactly known for scoring them. Back Czech Republic to win to nil at 3.1511/5.
Recommended Bet:
Back 9 points and above in Poland v Russia @ 2.01/1