Czech Republic v Portugal, 19:45 KO, Live on ITV1, Match Odds: Czech Republic 5.8, Portugal 1.78, The Draw 3.7.
Of these two sides, Portugal have played the better football and have the greater potential. They were defensively solid for much of their opening match against Germany before conceding a late goal (1-0 defeat). Next they deservedly beat Denmark 3-2, then produced their best performance of the finals to see off Holland (3-2). You can read Betfair's Michael Cox's analysis of the Holland game here.
Czech Republic were thrashed 4-1 by Russia, the only decent team they have faced. Two early goals earned them a 2-1 win over Greece before they clinched their quarter-final place with a 1-0 victory over tame co-hosts Poland.
On performances alone it's entirely logical Portugal go into this quarter-final as favourites. They also have the capacity to improve, with Cristiano Ronaldo producing one of the individual performances of the tournament in that win over Holland and their three-man midfield finally finding its feet. In contrast, the Czechs look altogether more limited.
I hesitate slightly before backing Portugal because Euro knock-out games are often closer than the market suggests. Four years ago, three of the four quarter-finals went to extra-time, and there were two upsets (Russia beating Holland and Turkey beating Croatia).
But the 1.784/5 on Portugal is just enough to draw me in.
This stage of the competition is a relatively new phenomenon as quarter-finals were introduced only in 2004, so there is little historic data to work with. Three of four quarters in 2004 and one of four quarters in 2008 featured over 2.5 goals.
Euro 2012 has averaged 2.5 goals a game, with 10/24 games (42%) featuring three goals or more, so a price of slightly above evens on overs would be about right. And that's exactly what you get: overs is 2.285/4, unders 1.774/5.
Those odds look about right. I'd leave this market alone.
If, like me, you think Portugal will win in 90 minutes, the 'Winning Margin' market throws up a couple of worthwhile opportunities.
Czech Republic have already lost by three goals (4-1 v Russia) at these finals, but I expect this game to be a little closer. Splitting your stakes in this market across Portugal by 1 and Portugal by 2 will net you a profit should Paulo Bento's side win by one or two goals.
Portugal are worth considering in a Corners Match Bet because they've had 24 to Czech Republic's 15, but the 1.364/11 price will be too short for most bettors.
Instead, have a look at the correct-score market. Portugal have conceded in all three games to date but I'd give them a decent chance of keeping a clean sheet as the Czechs' attacking play has been unimpressive. They netted in each of their group games but there was little fluency to their play, and few prolonged periods of pressure.
If Portugal dominate possession and Pepe and Bruno Alves are at their resolute best, I can see Portugal frustrating the Czechs for most of the match. 1-0 and 2-0 Portugal wins at 7.06/1 and 8.27/1 respectively would be my picks.
Best Bet
Portugal to beat Czech Republic @ 1.784/5
Other Recommended Bet
Portugal to win by 1 and 2 goals @ 3.052/1 and 4.216/5 respectively (split your stakes)
James Eastham has picked 12 out of 16 winners on Euro 2012 so far. He's made a 7.58pts profit on 16pts staked (47.4% ROI). You can follow him on twitter: @james_eastham