Croatia v Spain, KO 19:45, Live on BBC1
Croatia 8.415/2 Spain 1.794/5 Draw 3.052/1
There was a period, just after Spain had beaten the Republic of Ireland, when the 2-2 all between Croatia and Spain was just about backed into favouritism in the Correct Score market. That was clearly absurd, and things seem to have righted themselves now, although the 2-2 draw is still ridiculously short at 8.415/2.
The parallels which are being drawn between this match and the Sweden v Denmark game in Euro 2004 are tenuous. 2-2 was a relatively likely scoreline in that particular game anyway, and all that happened was that the teams got to that scoreline, realised that it suited them, and stopped playing, thus eliminating Italy.
I'm not suggesting that that sort of late-in-a-game collusion is fine, simply that it was easy to see how it happened. Why would you risk going out when you're already safely through? The point with Croatia against Spain is that a high scoring draw is a pretty unlikely result in the match and therefore there would have to be pre-match collusion involved.
That simply won't happen. Spain may be a little shaky at the back on occasion, but they're not going to chuck two in. And much though Croatia played refreshingly well against both Republic of Ireland and Italy, they're going a step up in class here and may well be found wanting.
This match is best kept simple. Spain are not my idea of the tournament winners, as I think that they're too easy to stop without David Villa in the team and that Vicente Del Bosque made an almighty rick by leaving out Villa's most natural replacement, Roberto Soldado. But they're a lot better than Croatia, whose problem on Monday night is going to be getting the ball.
Ireland were dreadful against them and threw the game away in the first half, while Italy scored and then sat back, forgetting that it's no longer a given that Italian teams can defend 1-0 leads. Spain will do neither of these things and, much as I'm a big admirer of the way that the Croatian forwards Nikita Jelavic and Mario Mandzukic have manouevred themselves into a series of good positions, they will be starved of service here, as they were in the first half against Italy.
Spain are 1.794/5 to win the match, and I think that the price gives Croatia too much credit.
Spain to win is the only bet that you need to have on this game, but I'm also banking on this match going against the trend of many of the others in the tournament so far, and saying "no" in the Both Teams to Score market. A price of 2.68/5 gives Croatia too much credit, and also encourages those who think that there'll be a conspiracy . I don't think that there will.
Best Bet: Spain to win @ 1.794/5
Recommended: "No" in Both Teams to Score @ 2.68/5
