Sunderland v Sheffield Wednesday: Owls can secure first leg draw

Sunderland v Sheffield Wednesday
Friday 6th May, kick-off 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football

Black Cats made it under Neil, but there's a long way to go without Broadhead

Achieving a place in the play-offs would have been the absolute bare minimum for Sunderland going into the regular season last summer, and with Lee Johnson they had the man, and the right man it seemed to take them to the promised land.

Johnson's reign never convinced, the fans were were never totally onside. Alex Neil took over in February and is the fourth manager at the Stadium Of Light charged with guiding the club out of the third tier. Neil's start was less-than-glorious with a drab 1-1 against AFC Wimbledon, a performance that didn't exactly whet the appetite. But the Scot was honest with his assessment of his squad at that time, saying they looked jaded and there was too much of a disconnect between the young players and the senior men playing too many minutes.

There was also the disconnect between the fans, the club and the stadium to address. By and large he has done that, but remember, this place in the playoffs was the bare minimum.

Sunderland's home record kept them in touch throughout the season with a massive 16 wins on their own soil and a huge 49 goals - one of the best. They clinched their berth with last Saturday's 0-1 success at Morecambe, although the injury to Nathan Broadhead was a huge blow as the 24-year-old limped off.

Neil was tight-lipped on the injury soon afterwards, but he finished that match without a recognised striker on the pitch. Broadhead, on loan from Everton has added a touch of guile and class to the attack so he'll be a huge loss if he doesn't participate in any of the post-season games.

Aiden McGeady could be in line for some sort of involvement. A player that was barely used by Phil Parkinson, he dragged Sunderland into the play-offs last term, but he has suffered again with injuries this season, and with just 16 appearances, he could be used as an impact player.

Dan Neil and Spurs loanee Jack Clarke finished the Morecambe game, but Neill had this match in mind and Ross Stewart should start. A 4-2-3-1 could be a possible, although Sunderland played a back-three earlier in the season when they hammered Wednesday 5-0. Since his first league game in charge on February 12th, Sunderland lost fewer games than any other League One side (W8 D6 L1). Indeed, no Sunderland manager has lost fewer times in their first 15 league games in charge than Neil (level with Jack Ross), so he's done pretty well.

Owls hitting peak form at the right time

Darren Moore arrived at Hillsborough in the summer armed with a big budget and a large squad. Another of the sleeping giants in League One, they have ended strongly despite Moore playing players out of position and suffering one or two dips.

They only lost three since the end of January, and his expensively assembled unit were clicking into gear at the end finding their scoring boots with big wins against Cambridge (6-1), MK Dons (2-3), and Portsmouth (4-1).

Barry Bannan has been their standout man in midfield, and finished second in the League One Player Of The Year to Scott Twine, but it was close, and Bannan is a master at his craft and is similar to Twine in scoring spectacular goals from long-range - although not as many.

Moore has one of the most mobile teams in the division; a side that play aggressively and on the front foot with wing-backs in a back three. It's taken time for the blueprint, they have a defined style and they are hitting form and peaking at the right time.

Lee Gregory, Saido Berahino, Jordan Storey and George Byers all scored for the Owls last weekend, which gives an indication of their squad strength. Gregory is a Championship player and is on big money, while Berahino has a record of 9-38 this term.

Head-to-head

Both League One matches between Sunderland and Sheffield Wednesday this season were won by the home side (5-0 at the Stadium of Light and 3-0 at Hillsborough). The Black Cats and the Owls last met three times in the same campaign back in 1971-72.

With both of those hitting the Over 2.5 target, that market has a generous 2.35/4 on offer. That initially was quite surprising, with the Under 2.5 at 1.748/11 shorter than anticipated, but it seems the gameplan from the layers here is to think that Wednesday will get a result - perhaps a low-scoring draw at the Stadium Of Light and to keep it tight, and then to unleash their attack in the second-leg - as they have been excellent at Hillsborough this term.

Sunderland and Sheffield Wednesday have never before met in the month of May in any competition, with their previous latest meetings in a season coming in 1910 and 1930 (both 30th April) and won by the Owls. This game will be the 10th different calendar month to see these two sides meet.

Draw on the cards for Match Odds punt with Wednesday dreaming of return leg?

"They've got an athleticism and power that's the best in the division. Once they got the first goal and the momentum we found it difficult." were the words of Danny Cowley the Portsmouth boss in his post-assessment of the 4-1 drubbing at the hands of Wednesday last Saturday, and he described them as a top team at this level. Would we describe Sunderland as so? Maybe not.

The market for the outrights is as close as anything, with the Mackems at 2.747/4 and Wednesday at 2.8415/8. The draw could be the one to play despite those earlier season results, and the 3.211/5 on the stalemate is probably the one.

Moore's team only won eight times on the road all season, and drew eight times too. Their 16 wins at Hillsborough will be lurking in the back of the minds of Sunderland and this is 180 minutes football. Moore will be breaking the tie down into patches - very much like Unai Emery does with Villareal, and the draw is the trade too from back-to-lay angle.

If you want to back Sunderland for the win, the better bet is probably going for the Promotion market at 4.131/10, but with Broadhead possibly out and a lack of scoring options, that doesn't appeal.

The Owls are favourites in the Promotion market at 3.259/4.

Opt for No for BTTS bet

Defensively, the visitors haven't always convinced this season, but that's been due to personnel, injuries and playing out of position. Neil's record since February 12th with his team losing fewer games than any other League One side (W8 D6 L1) is revealing - especially that draw column. Delving into the BTTS 'No' bet, something I quite like for a potential low-scorer, the Evens looks a good price.

The Black Cats can occasionally throw in a goalfest, but they have drawn three blanks in 14 under Neil, and five of those were with Sunderland scoring just once. We can also use that 'No' price in a Bet Builder option with the Draw outright that pays a nice 8.2529/4.

Only promoted pair Wigan Athletic (30) and Rotherham United (30) have scored more goals via set pieces (inc. penalties) in the League One this season than Sunderland (27). No side has had more different goalscorers (exc. own goals) in League One this term than Sheffield Wednesday (20). The set-pieces stat highlights where the dangers are.

Gregory can continue hot streak with Bet Builder play

In 2021-22, no Wednesday player had a hand in more League One goals (21 - 9 goals, 12 assists), created more goalscoring chances (123), completed more passes (1921) and won possession back more often (300) than Barry Bannan. He's a special talent and a true No10. Incidentally his nine goals for the season, only two were in the first half of the campaign - with seven at the turn of the new year.

The Scotsman got a knock on Saturday against Portsmouth so team news with his involvement is crucial. Bannan Anytime Scorer on the Sportsbook is a decent 7/2, that's massive. If he starts that could be a goer.

More straightforward could be backing Lee Gregory. He wasn't quite fit at the start of the season, but he has 16 in 37 for the year and he's a big game player from his days at Millwall. A fine finisher too.

Hopefully Moore won't set-up defensively for this, or too defensively, as Gregory feeds off the service from the wide positions and Moore's wing-backs. The forward has eight in his last eight and hit a hat-trick against Fleetwood - he is bang in form. We'll go for Gregory to Score Anytime at 23/10, and playing him in the Draw Bet Builder pays nearly 11/1.

Sunderland's Ross Stewart hit a hat-trick against Wednesday in the 5-0 earlier in the season, and has 24 in 50. He's at 5/1 to score first and 23/10 anytime.