Saturday League One Tips: Posh to take derby honours and Greens to carry on

• Posh can cover the handicap for derby test against U's
• Bet Builder option for Monday night Sky clash
• Al Dudman previews all the Saturday and Monday action in the third tier with seven selections

Posh xG numbers to continue to impress ahead of derby day

Peterborough United v Cambridge United
Saturday, 29th October, kick-off 15:00

Peterborough delivered in no uncertain terms on Tuesday night with another big win, scoring three at London Road to take their total home goals to 20 for the season - and they are now the League One highest scorers. I am kicking myself for not playing the Jonson Clarke-Harris To Score Anytime and Peterborough to win Bet Builder, as JCH did score, but the final one.

Six of their last six matches have all hit the BTTS bet, and that's another option for this Saturday, as it's impossible to look away from Grant McCann's team at the moment, but on the flip side the 1/2 price for a home win is prohibitive. Opta have them onside too - as Posh have won five of their last seven league games, including each of the last two, with the Posh last winning three successive league games in the same season in February 2021 (run of six).

Once again Harrison Burrows and Jack Taylor opened up the pockets on Tuesday night against Accrington, but Posh still look a bit shaky at the back at times and that needs to shore up for Saturday. The centre-back partnership is perhaps not quite working at the moment, and they are susceptible to the odd lapse.

Joe Ward is expected to be fit for the visit of the U's following an injury in midweek however, and Ricky-Jade Jones could also be in contention.

Peterborough's home xG numbers both for an against are so impressive at 2.04 and 0.91 that we can play again on goals, but this time I think the angle to cover the -1 Handicap is probably the safer bet and we can get 2.35/4 on that. Cambridge United are winless in their last six Football League meetings with Peterborough United (D3 L3) - last beating the Posh in April 1998 in the fourth tier (1-0) so that dreadful record should tee up a few goals.

Clarke-Harris is enjoying a fine season too - especially on terra firma, and we'll play him again on the Bet Builder. He has 11 this season, and while claims that he is a flat track bully are a little unfair, his majority of goals are at home. Cambridge are inconsistent and have only collected one win from their last six, and have conceded 16 on the road, which is one of the highest in the third tier.

KEY OPTA STAT: Cambridge ended a run of five successive defeats with victory over Wycombe last time out (3-2); only once this season have they won consecutive league games, beating Burton and Lincoln in August/September.

Don't rule out Barton and his flipchart

Derby County v Bristol Rovers
Saturday, 29th October, kick-off 15:00

It's a tricky spell for new Derby boss Paul Warne, as four of his key players are currently on the sidelines with injuries. James Chester is out for two months with a calf problem, while Curtis Davies faces a month away from action for keyhole surgery for a knee problem. Tom Barkhuizen and Jason Knight also face four weeks out. Although striker James Collins returns after a three-match suspension.

It's one win from five at the moment in the league, and a massive 17 points behind leaders Plymouth is not what the ante-post market predicted.

The Rams played out a 0-0 draw against Exeter in midweek, on a night when a few of the hot-pots at home were humbled - including Charlton against shot-shy MK Dons.

Joey Barton's midweek flipchart for his Sheffield Wednesday preparation was a work of art - if you're into motivational speaking, and it seems he has been watching plenty of Mikel Arteta's marker pen action on Amazon Prime. However, Barton got it spot on against the Owls in midweek as they went toe-to-toe with one of the big sides, and are on a decent run themselves as they haven't lost a game since October 1st.

Warne's high energy and pressing game isn't quite working at the moment, although it was surreal to see the former Rotherham boss wearing a Jurgen Klopp style cap for Tuesday - as so often he's in a beanie. He wasn't happy though with Tuesday and standards are way below what he expects. He said as much in the post-match press conference: "You will have to ask the players this but whether they thought they could just turn up, pass it around freely and win comfortably I don't know. If they did then that's a problem because this league bites you all the time.

"Every team will work hard, fight hard and be good on set pieces. If you don't match that then you are not going to win enough games to have a good season," he added.

Attack is the best form of defence was the message from Barton on Wednesday night on that famous flipboard, and his young team are showing a fearless attitude at the moment. He's the sort of boss who backs his players, and clearly his players want to play for him. Twenty points for a promoted team is quite good going and they are unbeaten in four on the road including a thumping 1-4 win at Cheltenham.

I don't think they'll keep a clean sheet here as they are too open, but that's not to say they are not a bet and Barton won't be fazed as his team are very aggressive both tactically and mentally. He said ahead of Saturday: "Derby are a big club, a big side, but we've just played first and third in the division and I think anyone at those games would say we stood toe-to-toe and were more than a match for them."

At 4.84/1 they might be worth an outside bet here, but we can cover the play on BTTS on the Sportsbook which is priced at 8/11. The Gas are unbeaten in their last four Football League games on a Saturday (W2 D2), with them last enjoying a longer run in their final five such games of 2021-22 (W3 D2), and there is also the option of the Draw No Bet.

KEY OPTA STAT: Derby are winless in their last two league games (D1 L1), failing to score on both occasions; the Rams last went three league games without scoring in March 2021.

Pilgrims look a great price for Monday night Sky game

Plymouth Argyle v Exeter City
Monday 31st October, live on Sky Sports Football 20:00

Plymouth survived a bit of a mini-scare on Tuesday night with a narrow 2-1 victory against Shrewsbury, but the win cemented their strangle-hold on the League One title at the moment with a massive 38 points so far - and with Portsmouth dropping away and Sheffield Wednesday dropping points, they are in a great position at the moment in the lead up to Christmas.

Those games could be the tipping point for their title hopes.

A late Morgan Whittaker goal in midweek spared the Greens blushes, but they had nearly 70% of the ball in the game and completely dominated in terms of possession. It took their Theatre Of Greens record this term to eight wins from eight, the perfect 100%. However, that goal conceded means their tally of F15 A3 took a slight dent, and a dent for backers of the Win To Nil market.

Stephen Schumacher made a key tactical change on Tuesday - shifting to a 4-4-2, and that has worked so well against some of the big teams, I would be surprised if he doesn't start Monday in the same fashion, as it opens up their goal threats, and they have plenty of them.

In terms of an outright bet, I cannot believe the hosts are 2.111/10 here, which compared to Peterborough's 1.51/2, is ridiculous. According to Opta, Plymouth also have won eight of their last 10 home matches against Exeter City in the Football League (L2), with the Pligrims keeping a clean sheet in all eight victories. Say no more with the Greens!

Also, 1.83 for and 1.27 against on the xG means we can have confidence in playing Plymouth to win and options for a Bet Builder. The hosts to win and Niall Ennis to Score Anytime is my pick for Monday, as Ennis has seven in 18 this term with five at Home Park.

KEY OPTA STAT: Exeter have won just two of their last 10 Football League away games (D4 L4), although the Grecians have kept a clean sheet in three of their last such games.