Saturday League One Tips: Matt's Wycombe vulnerable and a Posh defeat?

• Alan landed a 1-1 Correct Score win on Tuesday

• Ipswich travel to Posh in big game of the day

• Wycombe opposable on Saturday

Tractor Boys to turn over rivals Posh

Peterborough United v Ipswich Town
Saturday 22nd April, kick-off 15:00

One of the most erratic markets of late has been the League One winner market, which has featured Sheffield Wednesday blowing their title hopes in spectacular fashion. From long odds-on, they are now 19.018/1 and it appears a two-horse race with Ipswich at 2.26/5 and Plymouth at 1.910/11.

The Tractor Boys nearly had a touch of the "Wednesdays" in midweek with a nervy 2-1 success against hapless Port Vale.

Nathan Broadhead got them out of jail with a double, and a cool penalty on 84 minutes kept alive their chances of winning the division, but Ipswich really struggled to contend with Vale's plan to sit back deep and soak up pressure. It almost paid off for the Valiants.

"It was a really big win for us, no doubt about it," said McKenna, whose team now have four games left to seal the deal.

Peterborough are not known for sitting back, neither are they a team with a good record against the top sides this season.

Joe Ward and Nathan Thompson are injury doubts for the hosts, which will no doubt alter Darren Ferguson's plans to utilise his favoured wing-back formation, and that has to be a worry facing a team that have scored 87 League One goals this season, 12 more than any other team.

Indeed, delving deeper, McKenna's team have scored 31 goals in their current unbeaten run of 11 and conceded just two. To cover the handicap this Saturday they are priced at 3.6553/20 on the Exchange in the Peterborough +1 market.

The top two scorers in League One are also in opposition tomorrow. Posh leader Jonson Clarke-Harris has 25 goals, and Conor Chaplin has 22. JCH is 5/1 for First Goalscorer - surely the biggest price for him this season? And Chaplin is chalked up at at 4/1.

However, with Ipswich at 10/11, it's manna from heaven considering they went off 1/5 in midweek, and it's fresh in the mind that Peterborough were absolutely dismal last weekend against Cambridge.

KEY OPTA STAT: Ipswich are unbeaten in their last six league games away from home (W3 D3), with the Tractor Boys last going seven such matches without defeat in January 2016 in the Championship.

Can Lincoln bag another draw?

Wycombe Wanderers v Lincoln City
Saturday 22nd April, kick-off 15:00

My first impression here when looking at the markets on Friday morning is that Wycombe are far too short at 7/10 on the Sportsbook for a home win.

Lincoln at 4/1 is a big enough price to take a look at the Double Chance market, especially as they have drawn an astonishing 20 games this season.

Something that had passed me by too, 14 of those have come at home.

Wycombe have lost just one of their last eight games at home in League One (W5 D2) - a 0-1 reverse to Barnsley in March 2023 and are four points behind Bolton with a game played more, and with Bolton occupying the final play-off spot, there's a small glimmer of making the post-season with three to play.

Wanderers gained a 1-2 win at Cambridge on Tuesday - and it's not an easy place to go at the moment as Peterborough recently found out. It was a game with plenty of chances in the first-half, but Sam Vokes and Garath McCleary have returned, just at the right time for manager Matt Bloomfield.

Lincoln defeated Plymouth in their most recent away league game and are attempting to win back-to-back such games for the first time since October, and they're in good shape too as they shut-out promotion chasing Barnsley on Tuesday with a 0-0 at Sincil Bank.

Mark Kennedy has done a fair job as Imps manager and considering they are unbeaten in five and something of draw specialists in this league, that's an angle I am going for this Saturday.

Under 2.5 Goals fans should note Lincoln's away xG of just 0.82, which leads us to the 1.865/6 bet. That bet with the draw outright on a Bet Builder pays 3/1 on the Sportsbook, with the Under 1.5 double paying nearly 9s.

KEY OPTA STAT: Lincoln are without a win in their last eight meetings with Wycombe in the Football League (D5 L3) since a 1-0 victory in March 2009 in League Two.

Morecambe still facing relegation

Charlton Athletic v Morecambe
Saturday 22nd April, kick-off 15:00

I've been far from heaping praise on Charlton this season due to their inconsistencies, and I have zero interest in backing them at 8/11 this weekend despite relegation-threatened Morecambe in town.

Morecambe still are fighting for their survival in the drop zone, and are three behind Oxford with a game played more, so this is now must-win territory. Indeed, manager Derek Adams has laid down the basics by saying: "It's obvious that we've got to win on Saturday to give ourselves an opportunity of getting above the teams who are above us."

Often with these late end-of-season markets, the betting often favours the side in need of the points most, and considering Charlton have nothing to play for, I was surprised Morecambe were 5.04/1 on the Exchange market. Although with just one victory away from home all season - perhaps it's not much of a shock.

Indeed, they are without a win in their last 16 league matches away from home (D4 L12), which is the Shrimps' longest ever winless such run in the Football League, so it hardly bodes well.

But in four of their last six games they have kept it tight, and four have hit the Under 2.5 Goals mark and they edged a 1-0 win against Wycombe on Tuesday.

It's a bit of an ambitious one here, but I never know what Charlton to expect. They've won 6-0 recently and lost 0-6, so 8/11 - no thanks.

The first of those three remaining games sees Morecambe looking to repeat last season's 3-2 win at Charlton, which proved crucial in their eventual survival, so we could play the Double Chance.

Morecambe have a shocking xG on the road at 0.82, and an equally poor 1.98 xA, but Charlton were defeated in their only previous meeting at home with Morecambe, losing 2-3 under Johnnie Jackson in April last year.

I just cannot see Morecambe playing in an open fashion, and that's not really how Adams approaches games anyway. It's a "dare not lose" match.

KEY OPTA STAT: Morecambe are unbeaten in their last two away league games against sides from London (W1 D1) since a 0-2 defeat at Leyton Orient in January 2021 in League Two.