Saturday League One Tips: Fergie will be wary of Cambridge test

• Pompey can rally after Easter mishaps

• Warne needs a response at the Mem

• Posh and Cambridge to play out a derby draw

Can Pompey recover after a dreadful Easter?

Shrewsbury Town v Portsmouth
Saturday 15th April, kick-off 15:00

We have to keep opposing Shrewsbury in their current state, and while Portsmouth are far from banker material most weekends, we are getting 2.568/5 on the visitors against a team who have lost five of their last six.

Shrewsbury somewhat scuppered the Barnsley Handicap bet on Monday - as they earned a 90th minute consolation goal in a 2-1 loss at Oakwell. At least they scored - as previously they had gone three games without a goal.

Pompey also have the wood on them as Town have won none of their last six league matches against Portsmouth (D2 L4) since a 1-0 win in August 2019 according to Opta.

John Mousinho's side have won the same amount of games away (eight) as they have at home, although draws are creeping in with three stalemates from their last four, but they remain unbeaten in six matches and look a reasonable price at 29/20 on the Sportsbook.

Sides have been setting up to stop Portsmouth playing. That was certainly the case on Good Friday against the MK Dons - a game where Pompey mustered just one shot on target. They enjoyed plenty of possession on Monday in the 0-0 with Morecambe, but the Pompey faithful booed them off the park as they seemed to run out of ideas.

The Blues boss insisted his side were still in with a chance of making the play-offs prior to Monday and said: "We certainly need a couple of positive results now to get ourselves back into contention." It Looks unlikely now.

Connor Ogilvie was absent Monday, and Mousinho threw on a couple of attacking players to try and muster some attempts, but nothing seemed to work.

Portsmouth have kept nine clean sheets in League One in 2023, with only Ipswich Town keeping more this calendar year (10), and I am keeping the faith with the record to try and eek out a win here. I don't think there will be many goals and it's understandable the Under 2.5 Goals is at 4/7 on the Sportsbook.

The Pompey win and the BTTS 'No# pays out 5/2 on the Sportsbook for a Bet Builder,

KEY OPTA STAT: Shrewsbury Town have lost their last four league matches by an aggregate score of 13-1. The Shrews haven't lost five in a row since August 2021.

Expect one last hurrah from the Rams

Bristol Rovers v Derby County
Saturday 15th April, kick-off 15:00

Portsmouth are not alone in a play-off bid losing momentum, and Derby's sticky run is showing no sign of abating with a 1-1 draw on Easter Monday at home to the MK Dons.

It's now one victory from five for the Rams, although how the MK game finished 1-1 was a mystery. The Rams pummelled their opponent's goal with a massive 28 shots to MK's three, and the result left Paul Warne devastated.

"The lads left everything out there and I feel they didn't get what they deserved," Warne told BBC Radio Derby.

Warne now has a big job in trying to rouse and rally his side for a final push, but scoring goals has held them back, and Warne explained he felt the Monday draw was a microcosm of their season.

Bristol Rovers have lost eight at home, and their pitch has caused them problems all season - something their manager Joey Barton has been very vocal about in terms of his criticism of the surface.

After successive 0-2 home losses, the Gas bounced back with six points over Easter, but they are not a side to trust, and the market reflects that with Rovers at a huge 4.57/2 for this.

Derby have won each of their last five Football League games against Bristol Rovers, netting 13 goals during that time, four of which came in their only meeting this century in the reverse fixture in October (4-2), and I am prepared to go with the 1.910/11 price on offer for the Rams - it's just about acceptable.

The Rams beat Rovers 4-2 in the earlier match-up this season with David McGoldrick bagging a hat-trick. McGoldrick to Score Anytime on the Sportsbook is 13/8, and 4/1 for First Goalscorer - something to bear in mind if you are going with a Bet Builder.

Only three players have scored more League One goals this season than Derby's 35-year-old forward David McGoldrick (18).

Whether Warne mixes up his side we'll see, as James Chester is an injury doubt, but he should stick with the 3-5-2 using James Collins and McGoldrick up front. After all, they did play pretty well in the first-half against the MK Dons and really should have finished them off.

KEY OPTA STAT: Bristol Rovers have won their last two league matches, last winning three in a row in October, beating Cambridge, MK Dons and Cheltenham.

Posh in form but face a tough task

Cambridge United v Peterborough United
Saturday 15th April, kick-off 15:00

While others have been faltering, Peterborough have been keeping their end up in terms of a play-off shot with a brilliant run of five wins from six (the other being a draw), and they've been the one constant in the column in recent weeks.

Darren Ferguson has had to contend with the news that the Posh have incurred a suspended three-point deduction this week, although in the grand scheme of things, they are 12 behind Ipswich in third and have played a game more, so they can concentrate on securing a play-off berth - something Fergie is well-versed in.

Saturday's game at the Abbey is derby day, and Cambridge are a fairly horrible team to play against - big and physical with plenty of aerial threats.

It does worry me slightly how Posh will cope with Saturday's game, as the defence at times has looked shaky - although they did beat the U's 1-0 earlier in the season in a scrappy match of new chances.

Cambridge are seeking a first league victory over Posh since 1998, and three points could take them level with Oxford in the final safe position of 20th. It's a match that the market often gets skewed when the price is influenced by a team's "need to win".

Cambridge's recent 2-1 win against Fleetwood was a fine result, and I am thinking of the Over 2.5 Goals here for a bet. Six of Peterborough's last eight have hit that particular target, while Cambridge's need for points is hardly likely to see them sit back.

Peterborough's Jonson Clarke-Harris has scored 55 League One goals across his last two seasons in the competition (2020-21 and 2022-23), the most of any player since the start of 2020-21, despite Clarke-Harris playing last season in the Championship, he's been superb for the Blues, leading the line well and often playing through injury.

JCH as always warrants a close look for first goalscorer at 7/2, although I am still waiting for Kabongo Tshimanga to be unleashed as I think he's a serious talent.

Cambridge have failed to win any of their last seven Football League games against Peterborough (D3 L4), failing to score in any of the last three fixtures, and I am going to tap into the "draw" column and back the stalemate this weekend.

KEY OPTA STAT: After winning the reverse fixture 1-0 in October, Peterborough are aiming to do the double over Cambridge in the Football League for the first time since 1987-88.