Saturday League One Tips: Derby are poor value with Pompey in town

• Can Crosby get a tune out of Vale?

• Oxford and Forest Green will struggle for goals

• Derby still in the play-off hunt

Woeful Addicks readily opposable

Charlton Athletic v Port Vale
Saturday 29th April, kick-off 15:00

Once again we've got Charlton in the column, a side with a perfectly symmetrical recent record of WLWLWL. They've been defeated enough times at the Valley this term (seven) to oppose them as 6/5 favourites for this.

The Addicks produced another substandard display last weekend with a home 2-3 loss to relegation-threatened Morecambe.

With Charlton seemingly never able to move out of mid-table, Dean Holden has a task to try and motivate his players for a final hurrah, and it hasn't been easy since he took over. Therefore their price of 6/5 does absolutely nothing for me.

I said a few weeks ago that I would never back Charlton again this season, and I won't be persuaded otherwise.

Port Vale beat Bristol Rovers 2-0 last time out, and could record successive league wins for the first time since December, beating Charlton and Plymouth. Andy Crosby was tasked with the interim manager's job after the recent sacking of Darrell Clarke, a decision that was entirely predictable.

Crosby galvanised his men in a battling performance in defeat against Ipswich, and they bagged their first win under Crosby against Bristol Rovers recently.

They are keeping their shape better under Crosby, as they were too easy to open up under Clarke, and while safety in League One is all but secure, they still have a bit to play for and prove.

The Valley has averaged more goals-per-game than any other ground in League One this season (3.2 - 70 goals in 22 games), with 16 coming in Charlton's last three home games (6-0 win vs Shrewsbury, 3-2 win v Burton Albion, 3-2 defeat vs Morecambe).

That could put us on the way for an Over 2.5 Goals bet - which is the bigger of the two on the Exchange at 2.01/1.

Port Vale have conceded 38 on the road, which isn't great, so there's some mileage in that to play with the Bet Builder.

Key Opta Stat: Port Vale won their reverse meeting with Charlton this season 1-0, last completing a league double over the Addicks in 1996-97.

Oxford are dismal, so are Forest Green

Forest Green Rovers v Oxford United
Saturday 29th April, kick-off 15:00

Having bumped into Duncan Ferguson last weekend at Euston station, I had a five minute chat with the Forest Green manager. As he's about 7'5 tall, I dared not mention the relegated club's form, although I did put it to the big Scot how tough the division is.

Oxford, so often the play-off contenders, have found that out, and they've lost the plot this season and have been poor for a long time.

Liam Manning took over from Karl Robinson, and I am far from convinced about Manning anyway.

This is a horrible match in truth, and according to Opta, Forest Green have lost 29 League One games in 2022-23 (W6 D9). Another defeat here would see them become the 12th different side to record 30+ defeats in a third tier season (since 1958-59), and just the second in the last 10 years, after Crewe last season (31).

Oxford are winless in their last nine away league games (D4 L5), failing to score in the previous three. They last went four such games without a goal in March 2014 as a League Two side, so they are hardly making a case for themselves to backed either.

At 11/20 for the away win, this is a game priced up on the need to win rather than anything they've achieved in the campaign. I wouldn't want to be taking 1/2 away from home in any game in this division - unless it was the old Lee Clark Huddersfield team.

Forest Green are 5/1 but I think they are worth taking on a chance on, or at least withg a draw or double chance. It's a home game, they are down, there's no pressure as their fate is sealed, and Oxford have only won four times on the road all season.

You'll go a long way to find a poorer set of xG numbers, as the hosts have an xG home of 0.86, with Oxford fairly dismal too at 1.23 and have only scored 17 goals in 22 games on the road.

I am keen to play the 0-0 and 1-1 Correct Score bets and I was surprised to the see the Under 2.5 Goals at 1.855/6 - admittedly in a market with not a lot of liquidity.

One wonders how an earth Forest Green beat Sheffield Wednesday.

Key Opta Stat: The only previous EFL fixture between Forest Green and Oxford United was a 1-1 draw in this season's reverse fixture.

In-form strikers to score first?

Derby County v Portsmouth
Saturday 29th April, kick-off 15:00

Portsmouth's season has petered out and, while they are unbeaten in nine, they previously had drawn five of those and converting three would have given them a chance of the play-offs.

Indeed, John Mousinho's side have collected 17 draws this season and cannot seem to score more than one goal in a game. It was the problem under Danny Cowley, and not a lot has changed under Mousinho.

While he is pondering new contracts and building for next season at Fratton Park, his opposite number Paul Warne at least is in possession of a play off spot at the moment on 75 points, although Derby are dangerously close to Peterborough on 73, and Posh are 4/11 this weekend to win.

Warne's side haven't always dealt with pressure well this term, and the 1/2 price looks very risky. They were held 1-1 recenty by the MK Dons, and that's a bet I could be tempted with on the Correct Score.

Playing the Bet Builder multiple with a similar outcome, the Under 2.5 and Draw outright gives us a 5/2 Sportsbook double.

If you are looking for a treble to include in that, two of the league's form strikers are playing in this match. Derby's David McGoldrick has scored in each of his last five league games (6 goals), his longest scoring run in his Football League career and is 7/2 and 7/5 in the First and Anytime Goalscorer markets.

Portsmouth's Colby Bishop is on 19 league goals this season, and could be the first Pompey player to reach 20 in a Football League season since Brett Pitman in 2017-18 (24). However, he's without a goal in his last six league games, his longest run since March 2022 (run of eight).

Bishop is 8/1 and 7/2 in the First and Anytime. If only he had a midfield that created some chances for him.

Derby are too short, and both are not averse to a draw and Derby's xA at home of 1.17 could keep Pompey down to another solitary goal again.

Key Opta Stat: Derby are unbeaten in five league meetings with Portsmouth (W3 D2) since a 3-1 Premier League defeat in January 2008. Benjani scored a hat-trick for Pompey that day.