Saturday League One Tips: Back the Gills for a result and go green with Argyle

An entertaining first 45 in store at the Wham?

Accrington Stanley v Lincoln City
Saturday 23rd April, kick-off 15:00

Lincoln have been one of the big disappointments of the season, and on 45 points they are 13 ahead of third-from-bottom Wimbledon - just about doing enough to preserve their League One status. Crewe are already relegated, conceding a whopping 80 goals this term. City have let in 60 which gives you an idea of their travails.

Morgan Whittaker bagged a couple in last weekend's 3-0 success against Cheltenham, and they were back to their fast-paced best. Whittaker - on loan from Swansea, scored a hat-trick earlier in the EFL Cup back in August, the first Swans player to net a treble in 10 years. The 21-year-old has good attributes and Russell Martin was playing him in a different role at that stage and he's certainly gained experience this term.

City played into their hands by allowing too much space out wide, that in turn allowed the Imps to switch play quickly. I doubt if Accrington will be so narrow for the weekend. The question is, can Lincoln back-up a performance described as outstanding by Michael Appleton?

My "Accrington system" of backing them at home and opposing them away has worked okay, as they've been wretched on the road. And as usual for a match at the Wham, they are priced at around 2.26/5 and are usually good for a Both Teams To Score bet, but that price it seems, has already been marked by the layers with 1.674/6 offered up on Friday morning. Even the Over 3.5 Goals is shorter than normally expected at 2.942/1 - which has landed four times in their last 10.

I'm going to have a dart at goals early for Over 1.5 Goals In The First Half at a similar sort price at 2.77/4. I'd like to think there will be two goals in the opening 45. Accrington drew 0-0 with Burton in their last home league game; they haven't failed to score in consecutive home league games since February 2021 against Northampton and Plymouth (D1 L1) according top Opta, and aren't known as a 0-0 side.

Anthony Scully has 15 for the season, and with midfielder Lewis Fiorini playing superbly in terms of assists, Scully can be used on the Sportsbook for a 4.01301/100 Bet Builder by doubling up with the Both Teams To Score 'Yes' bet.

There's a fair bit of firepower if you look at Colby Bishop for the hosts and John Marquis for City, but neither are in particularly good form. Bishop has endured an odd season, and he's without a goal in five and just one in 13, while Marquis hasn't started a game in four and hasn't found the back of the net in nine.

KEY OPTA STAT: Lincoln boss Michael Appleton is looking for his first league win over Accrington Stanley since October 2015 (while in charge of Oxford), having failed to win any of his last five against them (D2 L3).

Scrapping Gills can still keep their hopes of staying up alive

Portsmouth v Gillingham
Saturday 23rd April, kick-off 15:00

Portsmouth were always likely to be pretty short when the early prices and liquidity was forming late in the week and Danny Cowley's side have certainly found a bit of form since February with just two losses in 15. Their golden spell of six victories from seven in the winter hasn't been matched and they've been drawing too many games of late to make a last-ditch push for the play-offs.

Michael Jacobs has scored in each of his two previous league appearances against Gillingham for Pompey (2 goals), having not scored in nine league matches against them for Northampton, Wolves and Wigan prior according to Opta, although the 30-year-old has been struggling for fitness all season. When he's played, he looks good, and has six league goals in a truncated campaign. Not bad for a winger, but he hasn't stayed fit and is one of 12 players out of contract this summer. Only three players in League One have a better minutes-per-goal average (minimum four goals scored), a stat flagged up by Hampshire Live this week.

Ronan Curtis, so often such a classy operator with goals and assists has had a poor season by his standards, but he's played everywhere apart from at the back. He's best out left for me, but the Ireland international by his own admission has lacked his usual sparkle during a mixed campaign. He at least has a further year left on his deal at Fratton Park.

Pompey have scored 40 at home this term and just 21 away. Twelve wins at Fratton and six away lays bare the problems, and Cowley will no doubt have another rebuild over the summer.

At Gillingham, the club are no doubt ruing not making a move for Neil Harris earlier, as since he replaced Steve Evans, the Gills have been a lot harder to beat, and indeed score against. Seven clean sheets since conceding the seven against Oxford has been an impressive run for a side short on numbers and struggling with injuries and they collected a 0-0 on Easter Monday against Fleetwood.

And remember; they nearly pulled off the same result at Sunderland had it not been for a 96th minute winner from Alex Neil's side. That was a painful one for me having gone in with the Gillingham Double Chance at 4/1.

A similar sort of bet looks the play for Saturday as Gillingham have once again been completely written off, so hopefully we can get around 3.02/1 on the Double Chance for an away win and draw as they are unbeaten in their last four trips to Portsmouth in the Football League (W2 D2).The Gills are still 1.558/15 in the Relegation Market and are just four points ahead of third-from-bottom Wimbledon. They've still got something to play for and at least have shown some fight and pluck.

If you are looking for a trade in and out, this could be the sort of game for a Correct Score 0-0 and 1-1 from 10.09/1 and 8.07/1 respectively.

KEY OPTA STAT: Neil Harris is unbeaten against sides managed by Danny Cowley in the Football League (W1 D1), winning 3-0 last time out as Cardiff boss against Huddersfield in the Championship in February 2020.

Will Wigan wobble again?

Wigan Athletic v Plymouth Argyle
Saturday 23rd April, kick-off 15:00

No side in the top three appears to want to win the League One title. With Rotherham's shaky run of form, Wigan are doing their best to spurn the chance for the title. A run of three without a win is unheard of (although nothing compared to the Millers' wobble).

The Latics have been excellent this term, in particular at home. But they couldn't score at Burton earlier in April and were inferior to the Brewers in that, while the 1-2 home loss to Cambridge live on Sky was one of the big shocks of the season. Wigan were 1.330/100 for that, and were blown away in the first-half by Mark Bonner's team.

They are bigger here at 1.865/6 and still trade long odds-on at 1.111/9 for the League One Winner Market. MK Dons looked worthy contenders too, but they've choked and haven't won for three either. They are now a massive 160.0159/1!

Plymouth have been excellent under Steven Schumacher, and away from home they have 33 points from 22 away league games with a record of nine wins, six draws and seven defeats. Schumacher has called them "brilliant" on the road and insists they are fighting all the way to the play-offs.

Panutche Camara looks doubtful, as he is unlikely to be risked for Saturday's trip to the DW Stadium. Ryan Broom and Adam Randell are likely to come in, while skipper Joe Edwards missed the Sunderland game with a sprained ankle, but they have only scored once in their last five and all but one match of Plymouth's last 14 have hit the Under 2.5 Goals bet.

If we can get 1.84/5, that looks pretty good. Plymouth might be missing a couple of key players, but I am going to play the draw outright at 3.5551/20 considering Wigan's recent form - at the wrong stage. Backing the draw and Under 2.5 Goals using the Sportsbook's Bet Builder plays a whopping 13.85257/20.

KEY OPTA STAT: Plymouth have failed to score in their last three away league games (D1 L2) - not since February 2011 have they gone four away Football League fixtures without scoring (L4).