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Back Posh to maintain promotion charge
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Stockport to bounce back and goals for MK
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Alan Dudman goes for 13/27.50 and 47/148.00 accas
League One Tips and Predictions
Leg 1: Burton Albion v Peterborough, Saturday 15:00
Tip: Back Peterborough
Burton have lost and failed to score in each of their last three home league games. The Brewers last lost four on the bounce at home without scoring in the Football League in September 2022, so the 8/111.73 on Posh away from home makes sense this weekend.
After four straight defeats, Darren Ferguson's side have come back strongly with three victories in three. They tonked Northampton 5-1 last weekend with five goalscorers.
"I still thought we should have scored more goals. At five, we could have got more, but you can't be too disappointed. Goal difference is going to play a part though. It's important we got four goals back on Barnsley and Bolton," said Ferguson post-match.
Posh have won nine away and they can make it 10 this Saturday.
KEY OPTA STAT: After a 4-0 win in the reverse fixture, Peterborough United are looking to complete a league double over Burton Albion for the second time in the Football League after also doing so in the 2018-19 season.
Leg 2: Charlton Athletic v Carlisle United, Saturday 15:00
Tip: Back BTTS
Charlton may have finally found their man and perhaps Nathan Jones has found his club. The Addicks were in desperate need of a proven manager and Jones cannot be faulted for turning around their form with a run of six without defeat that includes three wins.
The price on the home win is a little short for me at 4/91.44, and I am more interested in the BTTS angle as Charlton's last three games have all hit the target. Five of the their last six have been a success for BTTS backers - including a 3-3.
Carlisle have lost nine of their last 10 league matches (W1), although they could win successive league games on the road in the third tier for the first time since April 2013. They are hardly punting material and are in a shocking run, but they have scored in their last three and, as the bottom club, there will be absolutely no point in trying to play for a draw.
KEY OPTA STAT: Charlton Athletic have lost just two of their last 11 Football League games against Carlisle United (W6 D3), scoring in each of those meetings.
Leg 3: Barnsley v Lincoln City, Saturday 15:00
Tip: Back Barnsley
Barnsley are another team that are still in the hunt for automatic promotion and I was a little surprised to see them offered up at 5/61.84 for this weekend at Oakwell.
That tells us more about Lincoln, a side who have enjoyed a good run of things of late and are unbeaten in their last 10.
The Tykes have lost just one of their last seven home league games played on a Saturday (W4 D2), scoring at least one goal in each of those matches.
Lincoln have won each of their last four away games against Barnsley in the Football League without conceding, winning this fixture 1-0 last season thanks to a Daniel Mândroiu goal at Oakwell.
With nine wins at home, Barnsley can edge this, although I do think it could be an under 2.5 goals game.
KEY OPTA STAT: Lincoln City have kept a clean sheet in each of their last four league games; they last did so in five successive Football League matches in February 1985, which is their joint-longest run in the Football League (six other previous occasions).
League Two Tips and Predictions
Leg 1: MK Dons v Salford City, Saturday 15:00
Tip: Back BTTS in First Half
It is the Karl Robinson Derby on Saturday and it features two sides with different motivations. Robinson's Salford have improved greatly since he took over in the north west and, with eight points between them and third from bottom Colchester, they look just about safe.
MK Dons have still got a shot at the title and are five behind the leaders Mansfield, although they have played one more game and their home form has been excellent. In midweek they enjoyed a superb 1-2 success at Mansfield.
The Over 2.5 is short enough, likewise the BTTS, so we can play the BTTS in the first-half as Salford are prone to conceding. Backing that in matches involving Robinson's side would have landed six times since late January - a run that included 5-1, 5-3, and 3-2 scorelines.
A braver play might be to go over Over 4.5 Goals.
KEY OPTA STAT: Salford City have lost just two of their last 11 league games (W4 D5) despite conceding 20 goals and keeping just one clean sheet across that run.
Leg 2: Stockport County v Newport County, Saturday 15:00
Tip: Back Stockport -2
We're going for another price here with the second leg as backing Stockport in the -2 market gives a massive 14/53.80, and they'll surely be on the attack on Saturday given Mansfield's recent run to usurp the Hatters as League Two leaders.
The hosts are without a win in four which seems unthinkable with the way they have played and dominated, and their last two have both finished 0-0. In fact, they are without a goal in three as they were hammered 4-0 at Tranmere too.
They haven't endured a longer winless streak in the EFL since they returned to League Two for the 2022-23 season.
Newport are firmly in mid-table and have conceded 30 on the road.
KEY OPTA STAT: Newport County have won just one of their last six away Football League games against Stockport County (D1 L4), losing each of the last two whilst conceding 4+ goals in the process.
Leg 3: Doncaster Rovers v Crewe, Saturday 15:00
Tip: Back Crewe
Crewe Alexandra have won each of their last two Football League games against Doncaster Rovers and will be looking to win three in succession for the first time since September 1992. Crewe's price does look a little on the large side for this Saturday at 7/42.75.
The Alex are unbeaten across their last six away league games (W4 D2), winning three of their last four such matches 3-1, and have won seven and drawn six on the road this term.
Doncaster Rovers have lost four of their last seven home league games (W3), conceding 3+ goals in three of those matches, and while maddening in their inconsistency (note the 1-5 win away at Grimsby), Crewe have been good this season and won the reverse fixture 3-2.
KEY OPTA STAT: Doncaster Rovers have lost just three of their last 11 home Football League games against Crewe Alexandra (W6 D2), scoring 2+ goals in each of those victories.
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Alan Dudman's P and L 2023-24
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