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Stockport can buck statistical trend
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Goals could reign at the Peninsula
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Take a surprise package to score
Salford City v Stockport County
League Two playoff semi-final first leg
Saturday 13 May, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports
Slow starters Stockport can go up
Stockport were pre-season title favourites last year, based on them winning the National League title. Salford were second favourites (the first time in their four EFL seasons they did not head the betting) based on expectation after climbing the pyramid rapidly following investment by millionaire former Manchester United footballers.
Through most of the 1990s and the first half of the 2000s, the team that finished fourth in the fourth tier went on to go up. Dave Challinor's visitors, I feel, are likely to buck more recent trends and do exactly that, having overcome their slow start to the season (eight points from 10 games) to become the form team over the final 10 (20 points, goal difference of +10). They are unbeaten in 13 matches to boot.
Form sides wide apart in the betting
These two are the form sides across six games and 10 of the four left in the race for promotion - and for me the winner of this match is most likely to end up promoted. Stockport are shortest in the promotion 2022-23 market at 2.77/4 but I wouldn't be writing off Salford, longest of the four teams at 5.14/1, given their ability to score goals away from home - and late in games.
Salford, for all the question marks I and many others have put over their form and consistency, picked up 19 points over the final 10, with a +5 goal difference. They were also fourth over six games, on 12 points, divided on goal difference to Stockport above them.
Opta point out that the Hatters have only won one playoff campaign from five attempts in the Football League, but at least that was in League Two. Meanwhile, this is a first for Salford in the EFL, although they won the National League playoffs to reach the league in the first place.
This should be a lively match, with Stockport looking to build on favouritism at 2.68/5 while the hosts are 3.185/40. The draw is quite short at 3.39/4.
A good number of goals is worth a bet
Both sides join Stevenage as the only three in League Two this season who have three players with 10 goals each or more, say Opta. The hosts have Matt Smith, midfielders Conor McAleny and Callum Hendry. The visitors feature Kyle Wootton (14), Paddy Madden (10) and Will Collar (10).
While a first leg match could be cagey, add to the above statistics that Salford's last 10 matches have featured 31 strikes and Stockport's 22 and a goals bet is not hard to justify: nor is both teams to score.
Frustratingly for Neil Wood, the Ammies have lost three of their past four home games, not scoring in three of them. They appeared to be on course for a draw on Monday until, with the game petering out, revived Gillingham scored to win. Yet just before that they were scoring against all comers and have continued to score in multiples away.
Should we save that goals bet for the second leg? Especially as Hendry and McAleny have a recent habit of scoring late to win away games? I think it is worth a chance here, too.Over 2.5 goals at 2.447/5 looks large.
The hosts have kept their positive goal difference at the Peninsula Stadium, even if their home defeats have slipped to a eight, the highest of the top-seven teams in the division.
On the road, the Hatters have won four of their past six, stress Opta, drawing the other two. They have scored in each of their last 11 games, scoring 17. Strangely, Wootton (now injured), Madden and Collar have only netted five of those. Others have stepped up, including Callum Camps with two in the past two, suggesting strength in depth.
Happy Hatters to be on front foot
Challinor always wants to see a better version of Stockport than appears on the pitch. He won't want his side to sit back. He doesn't like watching cagey playoff matches, having watched one a week or so ago. I feel the visitors will attack.
The visitors have one defeat in 20 and know they should have turned some of the draws into wins. They conceded late, which might be a worry for the second leg, because the Ammies tend to score late and in multiples away.
The trick would be to attack from the off and buck their own trend by scoring in the first quarter. They won 2-0 at the Peninsula back in October, Collar netting in first half injury time. Taking a lead into the second 45 minutes here might propel not only the hosts to attack but more goals, resulting in a 2-1 advantage for the visitors going into the second leg.
The signs are promising: Opta stress that Stockport have won four of their last six away, drawing the other two. While this bet is about 12.011/1 in the correct score market, I will be looking to cash out if the scoreline is reached, because I am slightly tempted by the 30.029/1 on a 3-1 win for the visitors.
Make Lemon while the heat is on
Hendry and McAleny, Salford's two most regular scorers, are easy to back at about 6.05/1 along with Madden of Stockport, whose top scorer Wootton needs knee surgery and is out.
For me, the hosts' Isaac Olaofe doesn't score nearly enough to justify fourth place on the betting list and there is a more interesting option: Conor Lemonheigh-Evans has notched three goals in the past eight games. Mostly used as a substitute (one exception was when he started and scored early in the 1-1 draw with Salford in late March), he makes appeal at 4.57/2 to score at any time (Sportsbook) on what the weather forecasters say will be the hottest day of the year so far.
Salford midfielder Elliot Watt made 15 assists - higher than any other League Two players this season, Opta say. But he clearly isn't one of those players who also scores a lot. None this season so far, justifying his 36.035/1 to score first and 17.016/1 at any time. Opta tell us he created 124 chances which isn't a great conversion rate by his colleagues!
A decent Bet Builder is lined up
A Bet Builder of Stockport to win, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score returns 4.93 on Sportsbook. If you add in Conor Lemonheigh-Evans to score first you can achieved 12.47.