League One Betting: Evans can get the right result in Plymouth

Alex outstanding value at Fratton

Portsmouth v Crewe

It was pleasing to see Portsmouth get off to a good start last weekend at Fleetwood as one of the ante-post selections for promotion and it was a typical sort of Danny Cowley performance; a win that was more grinding than anything flashy, and Pompey fans might just have to accept that for a while. Although as Neil Allen pointed out in the local press, there is a bit of a whiff of the Kenny Jackett style.

Pompey will always be short odds at home, but they look awful value for Saturday at 1.9310/11, that just isn't a price I can entertain at all. Even with my promotion hat on.

Price wise, Crewe are a cracking bit of value here at 4.3100/30, and the Alex are often overpriced, for reasons that still remain a mystery.

It was no surprise they dominated possession against Cheltenham last weekend - although they were held 1-1, a frustrating result against a team they were expected to beat.

But that's often my approach with Crewe, it's wiser to back them when they are completely unfancied at large odds, which obviously brings in the Draw No Bet angle. They have also won four of their last six away.

I expect the visitors to dominate the ball and it has the makings of a low scoring affair with an Under 2.5 possibility.

KEY OPTA STAT: Portsmouth haven't lost their opening home league game in any of the last seven seasons (W5 D2) since losing 4-1 to Oxford in 2013-14.

Dons the value call again

MK Dons v Sunderland

The MK Dons have been anything but dull this season; with a 5-0 loss to Bournemouth in the Cup, followed by the League One curtain raiser 3-3 with Bolton. We backed the Dons for the column and was undone by a 95th minute goal. They never seem to go for you when you need one. Plenty go against.

However, bar the two points lost, Dean Lewington's team were excellent and very lively in attack. Scott Twine scored on his debut and he's a player with a penchant for a long range strike and he'll net plenty this season in League One. Mo Eisa also done well and there seems to be a decent spirit under Lewington - even if he denies that he wants the job on a full-time basis.

Again we are dealing with price here and the 3.55/2 offer on the hosts is too good to turn down, especially given their options in attack and how menacing they looked going forward at Bolton.

Sunderland's Callum Doyle (on loan from Manchester City) earned high praise indeed from his manager Lee Johnson at the weekend with an accomplished display at the back in dealing with Wigan's Charlie Wyke - a real handful. Doyle was called the best passer in the division - which is some statement on one game.

They handled Wigan well in an entertaining game, but 2.26/5 is a little thin on the ground in terms of a price.

KEY OPTA STAT: In all competitions, MK Dons have never beaten Sunderland at home in four attempts (D1 L3), drawing 2-2 in the most encounter at Stadium MK.

Good Evans again with Gills

Plymouth Argyle v Gillingham

For those backing Plymouth this weekend, you have the Opta stats with you; Argyle have won their last three home league matches against Gillingham, winning 1-0 last season at Home Park, although they are not favourites here and are the outsiders of the two at 2.767/4.

They suffered a 2-0 loss away at Rotherham on Saturday but swiftly showed their skills on a marvellous 4-0 rout of Peterborough in the EFL Cup, although that competition does throw up some strange results - usually involving teams that have their priorities elsewhere.

Manager Ryan Lowe has been talking about the possibility of switching form his favoured 3-1-4-2 to a 3-4-3 for Gillingham, or in the future.

Steve Evans was "at it again" as the Gillingham boss took a swipe at Lincoln and their size of their playing staff on Saturday by saying they had more players not stripped than his entire playing squad. Evans seems to live in a perpetual state of jealousy of other clubs and their budgets.

That was a good point against last season's play-off finalists and the Gills have been punching above their weight for some time. They bossed parts of the Lincoln match and their uncompromising style is in complete contrast to how Plymouth like to play, but it's a way that could work this weekend.

KEY OPTA STAT: Plymouth have lost their last three home league games by an aggregate score of 12-1. This is more defeats and goals conceded than they'd suffered in their previous nine home league games combined (2 defeats, 11 goals conceded).