Port Vale (1) v Swindon (2)
League Two Playoff Semi-Final, Second Leg
Thursday May 19 19:45 kick-off
Statistics still pointing to a Swindon match win
Port Vale seemed to be doing so well in the spring. Eight wins from nine. Before a late season wobble, losing to Bristol Rovers and Newport, Darrell Clarke's men had won six and drawn three in an unbeaten nine games at Vale Park, defeating Mansfield and Sutton, while drawing with Exeter, Northampton and Forest Green. Not bad.
Sadly, Opta point to a less than great record at home to Swindon, whom they must beat on the night to progress to Wembley. The Valiants lost 3-1 to the Robins at home in January, one of 14 defeats in their past 20 encounters. The visitors have won six of the last times they have been to this venue.
On the flip side, Port Vale have won all three home games in the playoffs, state the statisticians, stretching back to 1998-1992. I feel certain that the most recent statistic, Swindon winning their past five games is most telling, being that it reflects the past few weeks.
James Wilson, for the hosts, might have had his best season yet with 13 goals (nine in the league), while Ben Garrity and Jamie Proctor have 12 apiece. But Harry McKirdy, the 22-goal scorer (league games and playoffs) for Swindon, has more than each of them since Christmas alone (15).
Thirteen of the wide man's goals have come in away games, demonstrating boss Ben Garner's point that he doesn't set his side out to sit back and defend, even if captain Dion Conroy talked up his defensive partnership with Mathieu Baudry. An open game plays into Swindon's hands. I am not surprised, at the time of writing, that they are joint favourites in the promotion market at 3.02/1. To my mind, they are too long for the 90-minute match odds market at 3.55/2. The hosts are priced because they have to win, at 2.3411/8, while the draw is 3.613/5.
Both teams have a solid scoring track record
I don't think Swindon's attacking style is going to change. Garner promised it wouldn't even if they were leading after the first leg. They could get sucked in to early goals against, like they did at Crawley back in the spring. But the hosts that day had a fantastic three-pronged attack and seemed to catch the Wiltshire side unawares.
I expect McKirdy to be at the heart of their chances again, while I anticipate goals because Port Vale have failed to score just twice in 14 matches and the hosts just twice in 17. Both teams to score? Short enough at 1.84/5.
Both teams have a solid scoring track recordOver 2.5 goals is more enticing at 2.111/10, Swindon scoring 17 in their past seven and conceding six, while the Valiants have netted eight and let in 11 in that time.
McKirdy still the man to look to for a goal
Clarke felt his side were "loose with possession" in the first leg, but was boosted by Wilson's strike which puts them very much in the tie. Harry Charsley and David Worrall need to be at the midfield holding and support best if the hosts are the breach Swindon's defence. They must score first to have a realistic chance of winning. Swindon were League Two's highest scorers with 77 but also conceded the most (54) of the top 10 sides. Gaps will be left.
Sportsbook offer Proctor and Wilson at 5-1 at the top of the first goalscorer market, with Garrity an enticing 15-2. Perhaps he can score at any time at 7-2. But of course, McKirdy cannot be ignored, especially if the Robins are left to counter attack. He is quick and bothersome to any defender, especially when a backline is stretched. He loves to chance his luck at goal.
He'd love to score one more, especially with Opta pointing out that the last Swindon player to score 25 in a season in all competitions was Eoin Doyle, two years ago, on loan from Bradford City. He's been involved in 34 goals this season, with 10 assists. As his side are ahead, it's understandable he is 6-1 to score first, but take the 13-5 to score at any time.
Swindon to win 2-1 again
The fact that Sportsbook prices up both sides as easy-to-back at 6-1 or more to win in extra time, and at least 5-1 on penalties, indicates the tie should be decided in 90 minutes. A draw would suffice for Swindon, but that doesn't seem in their nature. I don't think the score will be as big as 3-1 at 27.026/1 to the visitors (the sides are more closely matched than that over the season) but I don't see Port Vale progressing.
I think 2-1 to the visitors at about 11.010/1 on the exchange is much more likely, possibly with Jack Payne or Josh Davison helping McKirdy with the goals. I am sure I read somewhere that the same side winning both playoff legs is a rarity, but Swindon's attacking strengths point that way.