Newport County v Forest Green: Defence key to Exiles win

Newport v Forest Green

Tuesday May 18, 20:15
Sky Sports

After several years of exciting FA Cup exploits, Newport County find themselves in the play-off semi-finals again. This time not having sneaked in at the last moment as they did two years ago, going on to lose to Tranmere in the final. They don't do simple, however. Rodney Parade will be dug up this summer, meaning the Exiles have conceded the second leg home advantage. So they must make the most of this game at home, and their excellent recent defensive record, to maximise their chances of reaching the final.

Forest Green looked like heading safely for a play-off place most of the season, even when sacking Mark Cooper after five years in charge with just six games of the season to go after a poor run. Jimmy Ball oversaw three wins and two draws in the final six to ensure a top seven finish, on the same points (73) as Newport but with an inferior goal difference. Rovers, like Newport, have had just one previous play-off campaign, say Opta. In the same year, in fact, when they lost in the semi-finals to Tranmere.

Expect a low-scoring affair

Quirky statistics sometimes make you sit up and go "is that a fact?" Did you know - because Opta did - that in seven previous League Two meetings between these sides there has never been a home win (three drawn)? Will that give Forest Green fans confidence to back their side at 3.412/5? Or fall back on the draw at 3.211/5?

Current form gave Rovers 11 points (one defeat) from a possible last 18, eight goals for and five against. Very similarly, Micky Flynn's hosts earned 11 points (one defeat), scoring eight times but conceding just twice. Keeper Nick Townsend has, in fact, kept six clean sheets in his past eight games with a varied defensive line-up in front of him. This makes the home win at 2.56/4 more attractive than those previous head-to-head results suggest, as does the fact they have won their last three at Rodney Parade - and to nil.

The worry with County has always been that their top scorers have only a handful of goals. Of the players still in the squad, Padraig Amond and Matty Dolan have six each. Meanwhile Scott Twine's loan ended after Boxing Day but he still ended the season with more shots (68) than any other Newport player, say Opta. Mickey Demetriou, a towering presence at both ends and a threat for headed goals, has come through to help the attackers with three goals in his last three appearances. Influential Joss Ladabie's possible absence with injury won't help their attacking credentials.

Forest Green won at Newport in February. After a mixed away record since, they did at least win the final game of the season at Oldham, 3-0.

While Phil Brown, whose Southend side drew with Newport on the final day, believes the hosts can step up a gear or two for the play-offs, only the three teams who went up automatically have a better away wins record than Forest Green. I don't feel the visitors have been in the best away form, however, plus Newport really have to make the most of their home tie having swapped the fixture to play at home first. A first home win over Forest Green is overdue.

Teams short of an obvious scorer

Jamille Matt's injury means we can avoid the trap of the Forest Green striker scoring against his old club. Both teams are short of abundant goalscorers this season. Newport's Lewis Collins scored a first league goal a couple of weeks ago aged 20, but it's his older brother Aaron - of Forest Green - who is the leading goal getter among the two squads this season, in Matt's absence.

Opta point out that Aaron Collins' 131 shots this season was only bettered in League Two by Cambridge striker Paul Mullin (169). Collins might not have had the best conversion rate, netting 10 times, but he has scored in his past two matches - both penalties. He last scored in three in a row in 2019 (for Morecambe) - with the third in that run coming against Newport.

Collins is near the top of the "first goalscorer" market at [6-1] on Sportsbook. Leading the list is Newport's Nicky Maynard at 3-1 and Amond at [9-2] - and he's a conundrum. He has often been used as a substitute but will surely start for this big game. Demetriou is a surprising [13-1]. If you would prefer to leave him for "anytime scorer" at [13-2] then also consider the [7-1] on Kevin Ellison, League Two's second oldest outfield player at 42, a frequent substitute and creator who still adds the odd goal or two. Amond is the obvious one, but Demetriou's recent trio of goals are hard to ignore.

Newport to win with a clean sheet

Newport to win to nil at 4.03/1 attracts my attention. The Exiles have won three games in a row at home to nil.

I'm not expecting a high-scoring game, given the two sides' records are littered with clean sheets. Under 2.5 goals as short as 1.68/13. It's no surprise to find 1-1 is the shortest correct score price at 7.06/1 and you can get the same price on Draw/Newport in the half-time/full-time list on Sportsbook.

Despite Newport having the lowest number of home goals in the top seven, plus the fewest conceded at home, I do think they can find a couple of openings on a difficult pitch that they know best. So Newport to win 2-0 appeals at 14.013/1.

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Betfair has joined forces with the Not The Top 20 Podcast ahead of the playoffs and their preview of all of the semi-finals, and suggested 20/1 acca is here.