Midweek League One Tips: Back the draw with stalemate specialists Wednesday

Dan can be the man for Shrews again

Shrewsbury Town v Accrington Stanley
Wednesday 29th December, kick-off 19:45

Accrington produced the biggest shock of all on Boxing Day with their 1-0 triumph against the league leaders Rotherham. A painful one for me as we'd gone Under 2.5, and while I didn't tip the Millers at 1.758/11, they still looked good for an acca bet considering they had gone 21 games unbeaten. The result was doubly felt as fellow title hopefuls Sunderland gained a huge win on Sky on Monday.

That victory for Stanley represented a landmark day for boss John Coleman and his trusted lieutenant Jimmy Bell (please pronounce lef-tenant!) with 20 years at the club - a remarkable achievement in these trigger-happy ghosting days.

Their performance was typical of the high-octane game that hasn't always been there, but they have won four of their last five. The re-introduction of Colby Bishop has certainly helped.

However, on their travels they have only won three times and lost six (compared to their home total of seven victories), and the trip to New Meadow won't be easy as Shrewsbury might be down towards the foot of the table, but they are solid at home.

The price for a Town win is fairly tempting here at 2.3611/8 as they have churned out a good winning run of late with maximum points against Cheltenham (3-1) and Charlton (1-0). They also drew with Sunderland 1-1 and beat the MK Dons in October.

Ryan Bowman and Daniel Udoh have formed an excellent partnership and both scored in the Boxing Day 3-0 at Fleetwood. Udoh in particular played a starring role with a "worldie" strike for his ninth of the season, and he's been their best player of the season. That was also their first away win in 12 so they are in good fettle for Wednesday's game.

Backing Udoh to Score First and Shrewsbury to win using the Sportsbook Betbuilder pays a hefty 7/1, and that should be considered.

Pining for a Twine goal again

MK Dons v Cheltenham Town
Wednesday 29th December, kick-off 19:45

Cheltenham haven't fared too badly adjusting to life in League One following their promotion, and they should have enough to stay in the division as they are currently 11 points clear of 17th-placed Gillingham. And Steve Evans can't moan about the size of Cheltenham's budget!

But they concede plenty of goals on the road and haven't won a game since 23rd November. The "goals against" column is looking fairly alarming with 18 given away in their last six in all competitions. That included five against Cambridge and four against Wimbledon.

Facing a player in opposition like Scott Twine must be making the Robins nervous.

Twine was my man for first goalscorer for Dons' match on Boxing Day at Lincoln. However, he was a bit of a villain that day rather than a hero as I had backed the draw and Twine to score first. Lincoln raced into a two-goal lead inside eight minutes, but the attacker grabbed a 90th minute winner to ruin the draw bet, and rue what might have been. Scoring twice and no profit - I was trying to be too clever.

However, it shouldn't take away from the the talent of the 22-year-old, who surely will be looked at by clubs in the Championship. His stats are very impressive with 11 goals in 24 appearances, often long-range and as The Near Post tweeted, against Lincoln he recorded an 81% passing accuracy, five from six shots on target, five crosses and one key pass.

While the Dons were shoddy in the first-half against a Lincoln team that don't keep clean sheets, they should have enough here as they are fairly free-scoring, albeit often coming from behind.

We can be a bit ambitious to boost the home win price of 1.9210/11, and go for a Sportsbook Betbuilder treble with MK Dons to win, Twine to Score Anytime and Over 2.5 Goals. The trio pays 4.8577/20, and I am tempted to play Twine to score first at 9/2 with the form he is in.

Owls can earn a point at Stadium Of Light

Sunderland v Sheffield Wednesday
Thursday 30th December, kick-off 19:45

We've had a fair bit of joy backing the draw with Sheffield Wednesday this season, and there's no reason to deviate from that plan for Thursday's huge fixture. The two giants of League One going head-to-head.

But I do like the 3.55/2 again for the stalemate.

The Owls have been held four times at Hillsborough and six on the road, as I suspect teams have worked out a successful way to play against Darren Moore's mobile team, although they were big winners in the reverse fixture earlier in the campaign 3-0 in Yorkshire. They had just 36% of the ball in that.

The big criticism of the Owls is that they haven't scored enough goals, and in October Moore was told his team were in the bottom half of the xG table, although he didn't pay much notice to it by saying: "If it is a stat that you want to run with then we're going to have to improve on that. It's not one I go with personally."

Sunderland were missing three players through positive Covid-19 tests for Monday's 3-0 win at Doncaster, and that added to the blow of losing forward Nathan Broadhead. The 23-year-old suffered a bad hamstring injury in the Arsenal Carabao Cup defeat and he's likely to miss the rest of the season. He will be a big blow as he netted his eighth of the season against the Gunners.

They are now unbeaten in eight and are a point behind Rotherham, but I fancy going with the draw again in what could be low-scoring game. It's not a surprise the Under 2.5 price was the shortest of the two on Monday at 1.855/6. Wednesday haven't had a game since the 11th December, so they will arguably the fresher of the two.