Lincoln City v Sunderland: Backing the draw makes perfect sense with Sunderland

Lincoln City v Sunderland
Wednesday 19th May, kick-off 18:00
Live on Sky Sports Football and Sky Sports Main Event

Appleton's tactics a triumph

Few expected Lincoln to make the play-offs this season, and fewer expected them to have a chance of automatic promotion. Unfortunately their bid for the latter was somewhat derailed by a catastrophic March in which they only recorded one win.

The end of the of season was all rather tame with the 0-0 against AFC Wimbledon, but the players would have had one eye (or is it both?) towards these two games with the Black Cats.

This will be Lincoln's seventh post-season campaign and they are yet to be successful in gaining in promotion in six attempts. They have gone out of the semi-final stage on three occasions.

Appleton's tactical nous has gone into the players like osmosis, with leaders such as Liam Bridcutt ensuring things move smoothly. Their counter-attacking style with two blocks is the best in the league, with Appleton often not needed to say anything during the game as his men carry out their instructions with a minimum of fuss.

Black Cats slipped up at the end

Here we go again, the play-offs without Sunderland would be like Goodwood without a Panama hat (if racing is your thing). This is their second time in the play-offs in three seasons, although not quite as memorable as the Jack Ross attempts in Sunderland Till I Die. I am hoping Charlie M will be amongst the crowd.

Talking of which, 3,000 fans will be allowed in at Sincil Bank, so the Black Cats have at least that to look forward to when they get them back home.

Lee Johnson made an initial impact when taking the job, but they stuttered on occasions, and in truth, choked a bit at the end by losing four of their last eight matches. They had lost just five in their previous 38.

Match Odds

This is a tricky game to price up as Sunderland often go off shorter simply because of their status, while Lincoln are often unfancied. Everyone seems "all over" the draw at 3.185/40, which is shorter than you would expect with an average price usually around 3.55/2.

The question is do we take odds as such, even though we expect it to be the likeliest outcome?

Lincoln are quite rightly the bigger of the two at 3.185/40 as the well known secret is that they are far superior away from home with their counter-attacking style. But Sunderland at 2.77/4 on the road makes little appeal, and if I was to play Sunderland I would rather go Double Chance with the draw. But it must be remembered they won 4-0 at Sincil Bank in December - a rare off day for the Imps.

The hosts recorded 13 away wins (a club record) this term, so we can wait to back them in the second-leg. I think we can play the draw at 3.1085/40 as the first games tend to be tight as neither wants to cede too much ground and Sunderland drew the most amount on the road with nine.

Wyke's goals the Sunderland force

Lincoln have inexperience with Sunderland holding the experience - but Appleton has unearthed a couple of decent loan players this term in the shape of Brennan Johnson and Morgan Rogers. Johnson has 12 goals and can be profligate, while Rogers is a fine talent (they both are) who should enjoy the big stage.

Jorge Grant was top scorer for the Imps with 13 so he should be considered in the Bet Builder playing with the draw.

Sunderland's Charlie Wyke netted a brace in the 4-0 win earlier in the season and has 30 goals in 52 appearances. Johnson uses Wyke better than Phil Parkinson did, and his tally of 30 was the most since Kevin Phillips in 2000.

Unfortunately there is no value in going with the Under 2.5 Goals bet for this one. It's chalked up at 1.574/7, which is ridiculous. In fact, in these circumstances, I would be prepared to lay as it won't do too much damage at 1/2.