Harrogate boss to Weave more magic
Barrow 2.89/5 v Harrogate 2.915/8; the draw 3.412/5
Simon Weaver must be tearing his hair out and delighted at the same time. Frustrated, overall, that his Harrogate side are back in the scoring groove but not always winning matches.
Has Tuesday night's victory at Bradford - a third game in a row where they have scored three times - finally laid ghosts to rest? Twice in the previous two matches they were 3-1 up and failed to win, drawing once and amazingly losing at Exeter.
It must be frustrating for Sunderland loanee Jack Diamond, Alex Pattison and Luke Armstrong to be putting away those chances only for the defence to find themselves undone late in games. A spell of four games in five in which they did not score was punctured by another match in which they netted three, Jack Muldoon obliging with a treble.
Having flown high for the first few months of the season, the Sulphurites find themselves in mid-table instead of still thinking about the play-offs. However, they seem to have found a second wind.
Will it be enough to overcome Barrow's barriers? The Bluebirds - with their manager Mark Cooper now starting his eight-game ban - have drawn their past two at home, against the varied strengths of Tranmere and Stevenage.
Just 10 goals in their past 16 games does not indicate they could keep up with their visitors' scoring spree. They rarely net twice in a game. They have conceded 19 in that time. Opta stress they have won just twice in nine since the turn of the year.
Barrow have not won at home in six attempts, drawing three, two of them goalless. Loanees John Rooney and Aaron Holloway at least have their first goals for the club, but the away side should be able to gain another win which puts them in touching distance of the play-offs once more.
Oldham showing bigger upcurve on unbeaten run
Colchester 2.35/4 v Oldham 3.55/2; the draw 3.412/5
As much as Colchester have made some improvements under Wayne Brown since he stepped up into Hayden Mullins' shoes, Oldham seem like the team of the moment.
Boss John Sheridan must be fed up hearing it is his sixth spell in charge of the Latics - temporary or otherwise - but clearly an experienced voice in the heads of players who might have seen a succession of managers in their short time has done some good. Maybe Mike Fondop-Talom and winger Temi Obadeyi, signed late in January after Sheridan's arrival, have also played their part.
Following up that vital win at fellow strugglers Scunthorpe, Davis Keillor-Dunn managed to net in the first minute against Bristol Rovers on the way towards gaining a decent scalp. That was the first of four goals in three games.
Oldham even coped without suspended Dylan Bahamboula for last Saturday's win against Bradford. A midweek without a league game seemed like just reward.
The hosts are a very short price, which might be because they have drawn their past three at home. However, overall they have won just once in six, scoring six times but conceding nine.
Freddie Sears, who has 10 goals this season, and other recent scorers such as Alan Judge must finish any chances that come along, because they are being given away less frequently by the Oldham defence, who might be able to hold out for victory. Opta stress they are unbeaten in their past five games, winning three - their longest run of avoiding defeat since February 2020, when they were unbeaten in six.
Simpson has the passion to earn victory
Leyton Orient 1.865/6 v Carlisle 4.94/1; the draw 3.814/5
Leyton Orient are bottom of the 10-game form table, having picked up two points and scored twice, conceding 13 times and are odds-on to win at home. Did anyone else spot the insanity in that statement?
Yes, even before sacking their manager Kenny Jackett on Tuesday and putting Matt Harrold in interim charge, the O's were priced at 1.865/6. Even if you consider their opponents Carlisle have picked up nine points over that period, with admittedly only one of them coming in their most recent six games. And they don't score much, either, eight goals in 10 and 16 conceded, 15 of them in the past six games.
Ironically it might have been better to keep Jackett for this fixture, if Opta stats could have persuaded the board. Jackett, with various clubs, was unbeaten in five previous home games against Carlisle, winning four. They add that Orient had won just once in eight against their opponents on Saturday, drawing four.
The hosts have a new voice in their ears, but Carlisle have also sacked their manager this week. Paul Simpson, replacing Keith Millen, not only became the third non-caretaker leader in the dugout this season but, at 55, has far greater experience in management compared to Harrold and an emotional tie with his hometown club, whom he led to promotion in 2005 and 2006.
Paul Gerrard has been brought in as goalkeeping coach, but it would be very harsh if the experienced Mark Howard was to take the blame for all of Carlisle's defensive failings. Afterall, the Cumbrians did take five clean sheets out of six over the turn of the year. It's getting the ball to the likes of Omar Patrick, who signed in January, and midfielder Jordan Gibson, who was prolific for Sligo Rovers last summer, which will be key to ensuring the visitors survive in the division.
Leyton Orient had a very good start to the season at Brisbane Road. They still have one of the division's best defensive records, conceding just 11 but have failed to score in their last four at home.
Strikers such as Aaron Drinan (10 goals) and Harry Smith (11) would appear to make them capable of racking up victories such as they did against Sutton, Oldham or Swindon, in which they scored four, or even Hartlepool when they scored five.
But they seem to be low on confidence, direction and even motivation. A change of manager will alter that, but a passionate voice in the opposition changing room could be more relevant here, with the visitors finding a way to land a win at attractive odds.
Simpson has the passion to earn victory
Bradford 2.77/4 v Mansfield 2.915/8; the draw 3.55/2
With draws still running at about 30% and having chosen not to tip one at Leyton Orient, there are a multitude of options elsewhere. As it is new manager week, however, I am going to plumb for Bradford to hold out against Mansfield.
The Stags have been in excellent form on a climb into the top seven after a shaky start to the League Two season. However, that has tailed off a little with three draws in six, extending their unbeaten run to 12 games which included eight straight wins. Only two of those wins came away though, at Crawley and Barrow, before draws at Harrogate and Bristol Rovers.
Nigel Clough's side's away form has not been nearly as good as that at Field Mill. They have just three wins on their travels and five draws. Only Scunthorpe, Stevenage and Leyton Orient have notched fewer away wins (one apiece). They have the worst away points tally in the top half of the table.
The visitors are depleted once more - which caused them problems earlier in the season - with John-Joe O'Toole's suspension and injuries to Rhys Oates and Jamie Murphy putting much pressure at the back on Farrend Rawson's experience and James Perch being physically and mentally ready to return from a fractured skull.
At least George Lapslie should return. Clough might have to rely much on the wide options of Jordan Bowery and Stephen McLaughlin. Lukas Akins could be asked to play as a lone striker.
Bradford have taken the jaw-dropping plunge by appointing Mark Hughes as manager. The former Manchester United striker last managed Southampton, to December 2018, and is used to a much higher level.
The former Wales manager will be "interested to see how my skill set transfers" and so will we. Could he be the right fit to pull a big-name club up by their bootstraps?
He'll certainly demand higher standards. There's already talk of "giving the play-offs a real go" but first he has to stop Bradford conceding (just two clean sheets in 13 games) and start them scoring regularly (12 goals in the same period).
A few quiet words of wisdom in the ears of Andy Cook and Tom Elliott, entrusted as "in form" up front in Tuesday's defeat to Harrogate, wouldn't go amiss. He'll have louder words with the defence, having surely noted the Opta stat that four of their last six goals conceded at home have come from set pieces. That's compared to two in the previous 15 at home.
Recommended bets
Back Harrogate to win at Barrow @ 2.915/8
Back Oldham to win at Colchester @ 3.55/2
Back Carlisle to win at Leyton Orient @ 4.94/1
Back Bradford and Mansfield to draw @ 3.55/2
P/L 2021-22
League Two +5.4pt
FA Cup +18.8pt
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