League Two Tips: Harrogate game can produce goals

• Entertainment thrives at Wetherby Road

• Dons can't just rely on Assal

• Newport can see off Rochdale

Sulphurites' games supply goals

Harrogate 2.35/4 v Colchester 3.613/5; the draw 3.55/2

Strange as it may seem given this season's form, Harrogate have lost four of their five games against Colchester since their promotion in 2020, according to Opta. That's their worst record against any team.

Colchester have won just once away (at rock bottom Gillingham) and before that had taken just a point in their previous 11 on their travels, add the stats compilers. That makes it seem likely that Harrogate could win three home games in a row for the first time since August 2021 (Opta again).

However, could Matt Bloomfield's side by Saturday sign a striker to end their low-scoring habits? Midfielder Arthur Read, signed from Stevenage, doesn't seem the most prolific goal getter, while defender Fiacre Kelleher hasn't been signed from Bradford to bust the onion bag either. If only Kwesi Appiah could stay fit, or John Akinde rekindle scoring sprees of old.

Maybe that victory at Gillingham can inspire enough belief to score, however, and contribute to a goals-based bet. Harrogate are reasonably solid at home, with four wins and three draws from 11 games - and 32 goals in those matches.

Recently, the Sulphurites have registered three goals or more on regular occasions, home or away. In their past seven matches, Simon Weaver's men beat Mansfield 3-0 and Grimsby 3-2 at Wetherby Road, and drew 3-3 with Carlisle, plus away from home notched a 3-3 draw at Hartlepool and won 4-1 at Rochdale.

In that period, Luke Armstrong has bagged seven of his season's eight goals and Alex Pattison, George Thomson and Sam Folarin two apiece. With or without Colchester's help, the hosts could well land an over 2.5 goals bet at 2.35/4 all by themselves.
It might even be worth backing over 3.5 goalsin the match at 4.131/10.

Dons to get back on track with draw at Railwaymen

Crewe 3.211/5 v AFC Wimbledon 2.68/5; the draw 3.412/5

Was AFC Wimbledon's defeat at Sutton a blip or the start of a slide, after pulling themselves together with a 10-game unbeaten run?

They are apparently braced for approaches for 20-year-old attacker Ayoub Assal during the transfer window. Their academy graduate has scored 10 times and has five assists. He was missing with illness for the 2-1 defeat at Sutton on New Year's Day. But they need to be able to play without him, whether he is insured or leaves.

Boss Johnnie Jackson was forced to rush Nathan Young-Coombes back into action earlier than he wanted instead. But Kyle Hudlin, having forced a starting place, and Josh Davison should be able to pick up the slack more easily if the Dons are going to be a force. Ethan Chislett has bagged four goals in six games. It's not all about one player.

Whether Assal has recovered or not, just how much redemption will be gained against the Railwaymen is the question. Away form has been pretty impressive since they began that 10-game streak with a 2-1 win at Rochdale: goalless draws at Salford and Swindon were paired with wins at Tranmere and Colchester - both with late goals.

Lee Bell's hosts have been consistently low scorers even before he took the manager's reigns in November: since then they have won three times - all 1-0 - and lost three times, scoring just one goal in those three. Before he swapped roles with assistant Alex Morris, Crewe had netted once per game (seven times) or not at all in their previous 11 matches. Seven-goal Coutney Baker-Richardson has been very much missed, leaving Dan Agyei to plough the most likely furrow (6) to goal.

The visitors could pinch a win. However, bearing in mind the hosts have three clean sheets in six games and the Dons don't tend to strike lots of goals, this match could grind to a draw.

Take a sign that Sutton can pinch a win

Tranmere 2.47/5 v Sutton 3.613/5; the draw 3.211/5

Do Sutton have "the sign" over some teams? They beat AFC Wimbledon last weekend and have won all their EFL games against the Dons. They also have a great record against Tranmere, it seems. Opta say that Sutton's only previous win over Tranmere came in this exact fixture last season. They add that they last won consecutive away games when winning that match, in November 2021. So maybe this "sign" pointer might work for away games against Rovers.

Tranmere, add the stats compilers, haven't won any of their last seven home games (L3 D4). This will give Matt Gray's men every belief that Will Randall and Harry Beautyman can find openings for Omar Bugiel and Donovan Wilson. If Enzio Boldewijn can get forward frequently they have avenues for attack.

Micky Mellon's hosts continue to be strangely hit and miss. Teams with promotion ambitions - as Tranmere have had since they came back into League Two - really need to go on more runs like their five straight wins that ended in mid-October.

Since then, they have won twice in 11 and drawn five. Kane Hemmings (6) and Elliott Nevitt (4) really should have more goals if Tranmere are to be the play-off candidates they want to be.

A great run necessary to climb to the top seven by the season's end doesn't seem likely on form. Maybe the visitors can pinch victory.

Exiles have the form to beat Rochdale

Rochdale 3.412/5 v Newport 2.56/4; the draw 3.412/5

Rochdale, stress Opta, have lost their last three home games and last won four in a row at the Crown Oil Arena in December 2019. I always think the latter parts of such sentences pose the gentle question "so it couldn't possibly happen, right?" Opta also point out that Newport have won just once in six away games, but give the Exiles an "up tick" by pointing out they haven't lost any of their last four (W1, 3D).

The upshot of recent form is that Jim Bentley's hosts have taken only one point from their past six games overall, a period in which Newport have only one defeat (D3). Rochdale appear to be second bottom for a reason.

Bentley rightly says Dale must build on keeping a clean sheet to draw with Barrow. He's already identified key areas for strengthening the team. But registering no shots on target against the Bluebirds was already in ironic contrast to the previous match, in which they scored three against Doncaster but conceded four.

Devante Rodney and Tyrese Sinclair proved they could score. How long veteran striker Ian Henderson, 37, can keep producing goals is another big question.

Newport might only be nine points and five places above Rochdale, but have to be considered in stronger health, even if Robbie Willmott has left to work with his old manager at Walsall. Captain Matt Dolan, a new father, has also returned to his native north east with Hartlepool. So, some of those stalwarts whom Offrande Zanzala says show newcomers battling qualities have now left. Mickey Demetriou, keeper Joe Day and Scot Bennett now have to ensure new faces create their own magic.

Having fought back from 2-0 down to Crawley (who led courtesy of a double from their old striker Chris Telford) I think the side from South Wales can pick off their opponents for the three points.