League Two Tips: Crawley can take a draw at Bolton

Careless whispers from Trotters camp could inspire opponents

Bolton 2.6613/8 v Crawley Town 2.915/8; the draw 3.613/5

We all like a bit of luxury don't we? Well, Nathan Delfouneso, the Bolton striker, might just have handed the advantage to Crawley Town if they read the interview he gave in the absence of Wanderers' game against Morecambe, postponed because of Covid-19 troubles suffered by the Shrimps.

Delfouneso said that Ian Evatt's side had to stop letting the "luxury hotel" feel of the University of Bolton Stadium inspire opponents. His rallying cry to the team was this: once opponents take to the pitch, we must stop making them feel as welcome as they have done off it, in what used to be Premier League surroundings not so long ago.

Will that backfire? Opponents will now know - if they didn't before - that the facilities at Bolton are probably the best in the league. Now they will feel inspired before they get there, not just when they arrive.

Bolton, at least, might feel fresher for not having that midweek match compared to their opponents, who are making a long trip from Sussex. Their home record is not the best, winning three and drawing two from 11. But their games at home recently haven't been short of goals. They beat Southend 3-0 at the end of November, lost 6-3 at home to Port Vale and then 3-0 at home to Tranmere. That last match was the only League Two game in their past 10 in which they failed to score.

The 6-3 game feels like an anomaly - a throwback to the 1960s - because they have kept four clean sheets in those past 10 games. And yet at Carlisle on Boxing Day they found themselves 3-0 down for a second game running (after the Tranmere game), but fought back for a 3-3 draw.

Delfouneso, with five goals, and Eoin Doyle, top scorer with eight, demonstrate they have abilities in front of goal. Evatt knows his team's ills and - strangely for a football manager - is happy to highlight them in public. Having conceded 17 goals from set pieces this season, he remarked that "something's wrong, and it's between the ears" on the dead ball situations, defensively. Just what the players want the public to know, eh? Man for man marking appears to be the issue.

All this information - from both sources - will surely be music to the ears of John Yems and his Red Devils, especially after being on a high following their win at Forest Green, who could have gone top with a win. Crawley's results away from home are little better than Bolton's at home: The Sussex side have three wins and four draws from 11 and, just like their hosts, a negative goal difference.

However, they have won their last two away, and drawn the previous two, in an unbeaten seven game run (four draws) which has taken them to ninth. Opta emphasise they have not won three in a row away since October 2011, the season in which they joined the Football League and went straight up to League One. Now, they are equal on points with seventh place. In their past eight games they have both scored and conceded. In fact, if you want to look for a chink, they have conceded in 12 straight league games.

On the positive side, they have a variety of scorers and creators. Tom Nichols, who netted both at Forest Green, has seven, Max Watters has six in the past six games and 13 this season. And he joined a month into the season. Ashley Nadeson finds plenty of spaces to create opportunities and has scored a couple, too. George Francombe at the back is fit again to add experience. Also in their favour, they have won in the FA Cup twice, away, at higher level AFC Wimbledon and in their own goal-crazy game, a 6-5 win at National League leaders Torquay.

Yems is fed up hearing about "tough away trips", he says. If Crawley can hold off the distraction of hosting Leeds in the FA Cup a week hence and be as up for this game as they were at the New Lawn, they could win.
A draw, on balance, appeals. Bolton, say Opta, have not lost three on the bounce at home since April 2019 when they were in the Championship. Crawley, with that decent away string, will be feeling the effects of travelling to Forest Green, the euphoria of winning and now another even longer trip in quick succession. But whatever the result, I feel there will be goals. Look for over 3.5 goals at about 3.412/5.

Stick with Salford's upward curve, as they are fresh

Leyton Orient 2.8415/8 v Salford 2.89/5; the draw 3.412/5

Salford were denied the opportunity to prove whether their recent climb will turn into an automatic promotion run, through snow at Mansfield on Tuesday. Therefore, as they have had an enforced rest, I'm going to transfer the thesis that they could have won that match to their game at Leyton Orient.

Orient had lost three games in a row before overcoming in-form Southend. To my mind, that makes them as vulnerable as the winless-at-home Stags. In the case of Ross Embleton's team, they had lost to Morecambe, Crawley and Cambridge, but sprung the surprise of beating Newport, at Brisbane Road, in oddly hit-and-miss form. Only twice this season have their won consecutive league matches (two in a row back in October, three in a row at the end of November). That makes them hard to read, especially knowing that Danny Johnson could pop up to add to his 13 goals at any moment. So to comment on one of their games is risky!

Conor Wilkinson also has seven goals. That two-pronged attack, and the supply lines, will have to be managed by ex-Swindon boss Richie Wellens in the opposite dug out. It might not be a huge problem. In Salford's last six games (five unbeaten, three wins) they have conceded just three goals, keeping two of four clean sheets away from home.

They won't want to let the O's score, because the Ammies have only scored six in that spell, James Wilson netting two of them. He and midfielder Ashley Hunter (one goal in the past six games) have six each this season, with experienced Ian Henderson netting five. They have won their last two games away, both 1-0, at Harrogate and Barrow. Quite probably Orient will prove stiffer opposition.

However, as Salford have not drawn away this season, winning four and losing four, I'm taking an equal risk (to commenting on an Orient game) in predicting they will win away. I'm clinging to my argument that if the Greater Manchester club want to be taken seriously as automatic promotion contenders they should be winning games like these.

Opta state that winning three games away in a row would set a new milestone for Salford in the Football League. It's a challenge they should be looking to achieve in only their second season if promotion is the aim.

Rovers must prove quality in defence against free scorers

Forest Green 1.910/11 v Oldham 4.67/2; the draw 3.814/5

Forest Green boss Mark Cooper credited people with removing snow to Tuesday's game with Crawley could go ahead - then swiftly added he wished they hadn't bothered.

Too many players weren't on their game as their eight-match unbeaten run came to an end. Sometimes, a defeat to end an unbeaten run can be a blessing in disguise. It's a chance to say, we lost, but so what? We know we can win because we've done it regularly. I'm treating their loss as an "against the form" midweek result that I've noted happens over the years. What's more, thanks to a range of scorers such as Jamille Matt (nine), Aaron Collins and Jake Young (five each) Rovers have scored in most matches this season, including a run now of 14 in a row. Only once this season, though, have they scored more than twice, in a 4-1 win at Scunthorpe in October.

Rarely, either, do they concede more than once. Five times in 21 games they have conceded twice. Keeper Luke McGhee and defender Udoka Godwin-Malife have been every presents as they have kept eight clean sheets. Their games are tight. They sit second in League Two, for which they must have plenty of quality. They were fifth at the turn of the year 12 months ago.

Now for some negatives. From January 1 last year, they won once in the remaining 11 games, falling away badly. They seem a lot more confident now, but Odin Bailey's loan from Birmingham is up. He has played every game since signing in October, but the Blues want to test him in League One. Out of contract players, Cooper emphasises, are hard to keep. Especially if they are on loan, I would argue. Also unsettling is that there have been offers for defender Liam Kitchling which don't match the club's valuation. In any case, he hasn't been training because of a groin issue.

These are issues to resolve. But are they negative enough to assume that Oldham can inflict another unwanted result on them? The Latics have started to find their feet under Harry Kewell, after just one win in their first eight games of the season. They have seven victories and one draw (from 13 matches) since. That goalless draw at Grimsby on Tuesday was something of a surprise when their games seem to feature goals. It was their first clean sheet this season and they have netted 12 times in their previous five games.

The big question is, can Forest Green keep a lid on their opponents' scoring spree? For example Conor McAleny's nine goals in total include three in those last six games. Defender Carl Piergianni and midfielder Davis Keillor-Dunn have two apiece in that time, perhaps indicating the joy and freedom with which Oldham are playing. Oldham have six away wins, and an unbeaten run of four wins and a draw on the road, state Opta, who had that is their best spell on their travels since 10 unbeaten up from April to October 2018.

Forest Green, Opta add, haven't lost back to back home games since what proved the tail end of last season (February). Their odds-on price of 1.910/11 presents a problem, that could be solved with backing under 2.5 goals at 2.26/5. To confirm their quality, Forest Green must find a way to shut out a side with free-scoring tendencies.