League Two Tips on Boxing Day: Colchester's big chance to win away

• No festive joy for Neil Harris

• Dons still on a roll

• Northampton a big price

U's to boost Bloomfield

Gillingham 2.56/4 v Colchester 3.412/5; the draw 3.613/5

I'm going for a little Christmas bonus with a bet on Colchester - at sizeable odds - to win at bottom club Gillingham.

It seems astonishing that Neil Harris's hosts reached the Fourth Round of the EFL Cup and are still in the FA Cup, but have won just twice in League Two this season. They have scored just six league goals, the worst return in the top four tiers - behind Wolves, who ended their EFL Cup run on Tuesday.

Harris describes his team as "chalk and cheese". Against Colchester, he surely won't be conservative enough to use a fifth defender, as he did against the Premier League strugglers. Michael Mandron or Scott Kashket simply have to find a way to score because holding opponents to goalless draws - as they did at Crawley - simply won't suffice if they are to extend their 72-year stay in the Football League.

Victory for either side will likely open up a big gap at the bottom for the other, which only serious squad surgery in January will rectify.

A tip on the visitors is bold enough, considering they have picked up just a point away. However, Matt Bloomfield seems confident that their performances on their travels have deserved more.

They have six goals away, at least, even if they need to get the most out of Freddie Sears and Frank Nouble, once of the Premier League and left out of the squad entirely for the 2-1 defeat at Sutton. Striker Kwesi Appiah's full fitness as he returns from injury cannot come soon enough.

Luke Hannant is due one of his rare goals, while he and Noah Chilvers should be providing plenty of chances to open up the hosts. The visitors, say Opta, have won five of their past six away on Boxing Day.

Strikers need to prove worthy of playoffs

AFC Wimbledon 2.68/5 v Newport 3.412/5; the draw 3.39/4

The Dons might be glad not to have played second placed Stevenage last weekend, particularly because they have an even better chance here of keeping their eight-game unbeaten run in tact.

Five clean sheets in a row and three straight wins at Plough Lane will give them confidence of not just being able to hold Newport, but beating them. As will winning two and drawing one of their three home games with Newport, Opta point out.

Boss Johnnie Jackson has been very complimentary about 20-year-old full back Ryley Towler, on loan from Bristol City. Towler has started the past 11 games and the manager seems certain the defender will complete the intended season's loan.

If he does, could he help put AFC Wimbledon in the promotion shake-up? For that, Ayoub Assal, Ben Chislett or Josh Davison need to reach 10 goals for the season pretty quickly - then push on for near 20.

A goalscorer in double figures breeds confidence for the rest of the team that chances will be finished.

Newport have won two and drawn two from their past six, winning the last away - at Crewe - while drawing the previous two on their travels, at high-flying Mansfield and Northampton. If Graham Coughlan's men lose at all, it is rarely by more than the odd goal.

While Coughlan says the team which lost in a "horror show" against Doncaster have "credit in the bank" to be given another chances, plenty of others wait in the wings for their chance. These include club captain Matty Dolan and stalwarts Aaron Wildig plus Robbie Willmott. A stubborn defence led by the likes of Scott Bennett and marshalled by Mickey Demetriou will not be easy to break down. But whether Omar Bogle can add to his seven goals is the question. The hosts should have the edge.

Derby atmosphere to inspire Red Devils

Crawley 3.39/4 v Sutton 2.68/5; the draw 3.55/2

Counter-intuitively I am going for over 2.5 goals at the Broadfield, which is not as big a price as I had hoped at 2.35/4. It should be bigger perhaps, given that the sides have played out 1-0 and 3-0 games in their two fixtures - last season. They were both won by Sutton, as Opta stress.

Sutton have not lived up to last season's play-off push, with Matt Gray's men only mustering one win away. That was at AFC Wimbledon, so maybe another big crowd in a local derby will inspire Will Randall or Omar Bugiel to add to their tally for the season.

More likely it could be former Crawley players Rob Milsom, Enzio Boldewijn or Louis John who might have extra incentive to score against their former side. The fifth lowest scorers away (7) are the joint fourth biggest conceders (16) meaning that their away matches average 2.3 goals. Meanwhile Crawley, at home, have scored 14 and let in 15 in 11 games. There is a strong chance of goals, I fancy.

One wonders if Matthew Etherington will recall Kwesi Appiah from his loan at Colchester in January, especially if the U's are interested in striker Tom Nichols. He was left out of the Reds squad recently because of speculation linking him with a move.

Crawley already have Ashley Nadesan and last season's League Two top scorer Dom Telford (back from injury) in place and it was always hard to see how all three would play.

Making Crawley the longer match price does seem a bit odd seeing as the Reds suffered one defeat in seven under temporary boss Lewis Young. However, the hosts are still finding their feet under their new manager. The adventurous might want to combine a home win with the goals tip in a Bet Builder.

Underestimated Cobblers can draw

Mansfield Town 2.35/4 v Northampton 3.613/5; the draw 3.711/4

Mansfield are not unbeatable at Field Mill. Far From it, having drawn three and lost two. Victory over Colchester was preceded by defeats to Bradford and Swindon, and a draw with Newport.

Nigel Clough's men also have three defeats in their past six overall. The manager seems relaxed about January transfers, saying two or three might come and go but if everyone is fit he is happy with his squad. Tying George Lapslie down to a longer contract seems the priority, but with Rhys Oates and Will Swan up front there seems little reason not to let Walsall complete a deal for their 15-goal loanee Danny Johnson.

The Stags need to win to have any chance of keeping pace with the top three who have already built a seven-point gap above fourth place. The odds, however, do not seem to reflect third-placed Northampton's current form. They have 12 points from six games (to Mansfield's six).

A fine win on Tuesday put Carlisle firmly in their playoff place. Sam Sherring and Louis Appere struck rare goals but the Cobblers are unbeaten in eight, with four clean sheets. A draw at least seems to be what they merit.