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Dons have strong recent run to defend
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Barrow have a strong home record
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Salford can overcome Colchester's resistance
Hosts look to add to Jackson's five clean sheets
AFC Wimbledon 3.39/4 v Stevenage 2.68/5; the draw 3.39/4
Steve Evans is not going to thank me for suggesting that Stevenage might pick up only a point at AFC Wimbledon - yet another recent draw for his side.
They are in fact due a win, on the basis of a WDWDWD recent run. However, a combination of the Dons' being unbeaten in eight games and Stevenage not quite performing at their best on their travels draws my attention to this game finishing even stevens.
Even at home last weekend, Boro managed just one shot on target, after Nigel Clough set out to nullify League Two's second placed team with a back three, knowing Stevenage had stuck five past Barrow a week before. Whether Dons boss Johnnie Jackson can devise such a plan for Luke Norris, Jamie Reid and Jordan Roberts is another matter.
The hosts have secured five clean sheets in a row. The last team not to concede in six in League Two? Stevenage, Opta tell us. In March 2021.
AFC Wimbledon's run of clean sheets started with a transformational 2-0 win over League Two leaders Leyton Orient that seems to have really kick started confidence. Those were the first clean sheets since August. Jack Currie, Ryley Towler and Chris Gunter, the most regular defenders in front of keeper Nicola Tzanev, must be delighted with such progress. Whether they can become only the fourth team this season to stop Stevenage scoring is the big question.
Can Ayoub Assal or Ethan Chislett break often stubborn resilience at the other end? Taye Ashby-Hammond has been beaten 11 times on Stevenage's travels, the joint eighth least in the division. Stevenage, Evans has complained, have not always been in top gear away from home. A short trip might change that - maybe a scoring draw might be the option. Opta point out they have not been beaten in five away, last doing better (six) in April 2021.
Bluebirds on song at home
Barrow 2.447/5 v Swindon 3.211/5; the draw 3.613/5
Proper value - sides to win above evens - seem to be at a premium and Barrow might just offer a great choice at 2.447/5. Swindon seem to have gone off the boil and have been pegged out by layers after succumbing to a draw when they were a short price for a home win last weekend against a form team.
Scott Lindsey was not impressed with a refereeing decision that denied them a penalty, but offered that the Robins did not do enough to win. Maybe Jonny Williams will feel fully refreshed and in goalscoring form in his second game back from the World Cup with Wales. Jacob Wakeling and Luke Jephcott need to find a route to goal.
Barrow will still be feeling bashful after their 5-0 whooping by Stevenage, but had a weekend off to lick their wounds. They have won their last four at home, Opta stress, while Swindon have failed to score in their last three.
For the hosts, Josh Gordon (10) has more goals than two thirds of the opposition's strike force, while Billy Waters (7) has found a great run of form. He seems to have had a stop start career, so I hope for his sake the scoring run extends this time.
The Bluebirds are very rarely beaten at Holker Street, with eight wins. Draws? Nah! Goals? Plenty. At both ends. Boss Pete Wild must inspire his side to take their chance to pin back Swindon and keep them out of the play-off picture, while trying to hang on to the coat tails of the top three. With four wins and two defeats in the last six, they have a better chance than Swindon, who must start to turn draws into wins - eventually, but not here.
Cobblers should see off Cumbrians
Northampton Town 2.6813/8 v Carlisle 3.02/1; the draw 3.46123/50
Northampton offer another chance of a successful bet on a weekend of slim pickings.
Chairman Kelvin Thomas says they will be making only two or three additions in January. They have already signed free agent Josh Harrop, once of Manchester United and who was released by Preston in August.
Josh McPake, 21 - an apparent target from Rangers but who is already on loan at Queens Park - has already - has had two loan spells in this division before. Could he be the final piece in the jigsaw to get the Cobblers over the promotion line?
Key players Sam Hoskins and club captain Jon Guthrie have been tied to long-term contracts. Boss Jon Brady says he is happy with the players at his disposal, after a busy summer's recruitment. Danny Hylton would love to make a firm contribution, but it has been the goals of Hoskins (13) who have led them to this point. Kieron Bowie (4) and Mitch Pinnock (3) lag well behind.
The hosts have only lost twice at Sixfields. But a note of caution. Unbeaten in seven, they have drawn four of those and taken four clean sheets. Also, Carlisle are quite capable of taking a point. Unbeaten in five themselves, three of those were drawn. Kristian Dennis had a fantastic start to the season and had four of his 11 goals in the past five matches. The visitors have scored twice or more in their past three away games.
Opta dig out some interesting facts: The Cobblers' 39 points is their second best start to a season from 20 games this century, only bettered in 2015-16 when they won the title. They face a Carlisle side who, since Paul Simpson took charge in February, have picked up 58 points. Only three League Two teams an better that: leaders Leyton Orient (73), their opponents here Northampton (63) and Mansfield (61).
In contrast to the relaxed sentiments expressed about January's transfer window by Northampton, Simpson says he has not been told how much the club will support business next month. He hopes the board will not miss the opportunity to build on the season's start. That's almost a begging message. Northampton seem in better shape.
Salford sting opponents away from home
Colchester United 2.942/1 v Salford City 2.77/4; the draw 3.55/2
If Salford are serious about mounting a promotion push this season - and they appear to be - then they need to win these matches against bottom third sides. And those above them, too. Six wins away suggests they can take victory, but their form is irregular.
A comprehensive victory over Gillingham was preceded by three defeats from four and the Ammies not even scoring in three of them. In fact, they have failed to score in five of their past eight League Two matches. Neil Wood would be forgiven for having a Graham Taylor moment: Do I not like that!
Theo Vassell, Ryan Watson and Callum Hendry all scored to see off the Gills last week but they don't score regularly enough to give opponents nightmares. Watson is top scorer with four.
Colchester are better at home than they are away (just one point from 11 games) and Matt Bloomfield talks positively about them at home. They won their last home game, 3-0 against Doncaster. Alex Newby has developed a fondness for free kicks but the U's cannot afford to rely on the "former Premier League experience" label on Frank Nouble and Freddie Sears.
They are in the bottom two for a reason. However, they are unbeaten in four at home including holding Stevenage in late October. Dare I say it, but Salford are better away than Stevenage!
Opta stress that Salford have won five of their last seven away, with only Leyton Orient (23) and Northampton (21) in the division winning more points than Salford's 19 on their travels.
Recommended bets
Back AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage to draw @ 3.39/4
Back Barrow to beat Swindon @ 2.447/5