Tranmere climbing fast up the Hill
Leyton Orient 3.02/1 v Tranmere 2.6613/8; the draw 3.412/5
Tranmere have been sweeping almost all before them recently. So it is not surprising that their win price has contracted, after initially being about the same as their hosts Leyton Orient, who have picked up just three points in six matches.
Home boss Ross Embleton would argue that the O's are strong at Brisbane Road, winning seven and drawing four with a goal difference of +9. His side have shown resilience - or is that pure stubbornness? - stopper Lawrence Vigouroux keeping five clean sheets in their last nine matches. However, the attack has scored once in six games, through West Ham loanee Dan Kemp.
They don't concede in great numbers - five times in six games and never more than the twice at once (at Bolton) in that run.
At any time, top scorer Danny Johnson could recapture the form that has brought him 14 League Two goals this season. However, Tranmere have a real sense of purpose and confidence under Keith Hill and now have eyes on a top three place.
In a run of 10 games featuring six wins and just one defeat, Tranmere have netted two goals or more on six occasions, scoring 18 goals but conceding 11. Kaiyne Woolery has forced his way into the starting XI since Hill's arrival, scoring five times in six league games and another as Rovers have reached the EFL Trophy final. James Vaughan, pretty prolific with 0.30 goals per game in his career, has also netted eight times in eight games - 18 times in League Two this campaign.
Having won at fellow high flyers Morecambe and (on Tuesday) late on at Carlisle, who have the best home record in the division, tackling Orient on their own patch will hold no fears. That is, even if they will have to work hard to break down a stubborn defence. They were twice behind at Carlisle, too. Opta point out they have won six of their past eight games, failing to find the next just once in that run.
High scoring Bantams flying into promotion picture
Walsall 3.02/1 v Bradford 2.68/5; the draw 3.55/2
Bradford are another side in form - having broken Leyton Orient's resistance on Tuesday to give Mark Trueman and Conor Sellars another victory and their first official one as permanent managers.
Under their stewardship, they have lost once in 12, at Exeter who should be flying higher. Tuesday's win, courtesy of Callum Cooke holding his nerve from the penalty spot late in the game, further reduced the points gap to the play-off positions. Fans who worried in December about relegation are now wondering if promotion is possible.
If there were questions before Christmas about where goals were coming from (Lee Novak netted six before suffering an injury at the end of January), they have been answered by winter window signings Danny Rowe, Charles Vernam and Andy Cook. In netting 12 goals in their past six games, they have scored 37.5% of this season's total 32 goals in that 21% cross-section of the season. Clean sheets in their past two matches gives them a great platform to kick on.
Before Wednesday's 1-0 defeat to Newport, Walsall had drawn four of their past six games 1-1 but gave new boss Brian Dutton a first point at Stevenage last Saturday.
Improvement at Walsall seems gradual. Keeper Liam Roberts is looking for consistency in his performances. He says he knows he has "let the team down" on some occasions. And Dutton said after the Stevenage match (one of those 1-1 draws) that he saw the player the coaches all know and love from training. Someone who had really come into his own.
At the other Caolan Lavery will be looking to add to his strikes in two consecutive games, but star men Elijah Adebayo and Zak Jones, who left in January, were always going to be hard to replace. Liam Kinsella will also be missed, through suspension for this one. That "naivity" of game management, compared to Newport which Dutton blamed for their last defeat, could cost them here too.
Opta sum up the size of Walsall's task to actually win: Bradford have lost just one away game in seven, their only defeat coming when they conceded more than once.
'Little' Morecambe have upward momentum
Mansfield 2.3611/8 v Morecambe 3.211/5; the draw 3.613/5
Morecambe recently set out their dream to be a competitive League One club by 2024. Manager Derek Adams has previously spoken of his desire to banish the "little old Morecambe" banner. Since their Football League arrival in 2007, they have built a new stadium and flirted near the top seven on occasions but really spent most seasons fighting relegation.
Establishing themselves in League One is a big ask. It isn't easy being a football club in one of England's outpost towns, geographically. One strategy is better cohesion with the community - starting with associated groups. Another will have to be promotion - and the Shrimps are making inroads on that ambition.
They made a statement with an opening day win at Cheltenham and have made recent ones, too, at Exeter in particular, among seven away wins. Tuesday's win over Salford, at home, made another statement as they pushed up to fourth.
They rarely score more than two per game - just three times this season - which makes the fact they are joint four top scorers in League Two with 41 slightly surprising. It reminds me of the story of the hare and the tortoise, in that slow and steady brings results.
While Adams has been asked questions about having a main front man, he says he isn't bothered about a focal point in attack because they have had 14 scorers. Led by striker Carlos Mendes Gomes (9) and Adam Phillips (8) from midfield, Adams knows he can rely on Aaron Wildig (6) to create as well as score. Meanwhile Cole Stockton (4) would surely love to be known as more than the blooded strike hero with the bandaged head who netted twice to help win a round of the FA Cup.
Can they fully capitalise on Mansfield's downward trend of results since winning five in a row? February has reaped two draws from five games for the Stags, with no goals in their past two games.
Manager Nigel Clough labelled the defending which enabled Harrogate to beat them on Tuesday as "criminal". The goal was conceded just 10 seconds into the second half - so, virtually from the kick-off.
Previously, he felt it harsh that the Stags only gained one point from three matches, especially having led 2-0 at home to Bolton. Ollie Clarke has been showing Jordan Bowery how to score recently and one still wonders whether allowing the experienced supplier Nicky Maynard to leave was the right thing to do. Summer surgery will be needed.
Five of Morecambe's last seven games have been away. Two wins, two draws and a defeat to Bradford. It's a toss up between a draw and a win, but I'm in the mood to take the chance on the visitors.
Grecians must make most of Crawley's malaise
13:00 kick-off
Crawley 3.55/2 v Exeter 2.35/4; the draw 3.613/5
Opta's stats are telling here: Exeter are four games unbeaten, finding the net in each, while Crawley have won once in six league games. They might have won their last game at the Broadfield, but that was against free falling Colchester, who sacked their manager three days later after a 13-game winless run.
Meanwhile, John Yems' men continued a bad stretch by losing at struggling Grimsby. A few months ago the Reds manager said they feared nobody on the road, even if their strength was a long unbeaten home record. The January exit of Max Watters appears to have destroyed their momentum, leaving the manager to talk of avoiding relegation and the success being staying up - from the safety of mid-table.
Four goals scored in six games is hardly balanced by two clean sheets and new boy James Tilley scoring. They need to reset. Exeter must take advantage, to pursue long-held ambitions of promotion.
Their overall away record of four wins and eight draws gives a great platform, with the worrying tendency to finish level. The victory margin at Colchester "should have been more" than 2-1 said manager Matt Tyalor, who praised academy graduates for Josh Key and Ben Seymour. In fact, five academy graduates played a huge role.
Robbie Willmott, signed from Newport, has already proved his worth with a goal. There have been a few false dawns for the Grecians. They must not let things slip this season and finish the job of promotion, starting with taking their chance here.
Recommended bets
Back Tranmere to win at Leyton Orient @ 2.6613/8
Back Bradford to win at Walsall @ 2.68/5
Back Morecambe to win at Mansfield @ 3.211/5
Back Exeter to win at Crawley @ 2.35/4
P/L 2020-21
League Two -21.85pt
FA Cup +13.86pt