League Two Tips: Back Oldham to topple Carlisle

Latics to edge out Simpson's side

Oldham 2.486/4 v Carlisle 3.211/5; the draw 3.412/5

Carlisle might have won for the first time for returning boss Paul Simpson, but reality will now have set in for the Cumbrians. Another fine performance against Rochdale in midweek will have furthered the sense of relief near the foot of the table. And they might be thinking that having risen above Oldham with last weekend's victory at a poorly performing Leyton Orient they might have a strong chance against the Latics.

Not so. John Sheridan, another manager returning to a former club, has revived the hosts, who are unbeaten in six under him. Three wins, two of them at home, and scoring in their past five games (albeit drawing via an own goal at Colchester) has shown their spirit and their desire. No doubt this has been down to their experienced leader.

Davis Keillor-Dunn netted four times in three games going into last weekend, since when they have had a week to recuperate and thoroughly absorb Sheridan's tactical changes.

Hallam Hope owes his new boss a goal, while Dylan Bahamboula will have been disappointed to have missed out on continuing the unbeaten run, having been sent off in the 3-3 draw at Newport.

Oldham's home record of four wins and three draws matches Carlisle's away. The Latics have a goal difference of only -6 compared to the Cumbrians' -13 away. Their revived form line is more established.

Carlisle have to be respected of course, especially if Jon Mellish can be persuaded to rekindle his knack of scoring from last season. Winger Omari Patrick now has four goals in six games.

With Carlisle riding so high in the six-game form table (top six) they have to be given enough respect to land a home win at a decent price. Oldham haven't won three in a row at Boundary Park since October 2017 say Opta.

Salford have no reason to relent

Salford City 3.4461/25 v Forest Green 2.447/5; the draw 3.4461/25

Salford have won two games in a row for only the second time in League Two this season - the away win at Swindon being only their first pair of successive victories away from home. Forest Green have lost twice in a row for the first time this season. If football balances itself out over a season, then perhaps various facts will flatten themselves out into a draw at the Peninsula Stadium.

The Ammies are unbeaten in four games - and have 13 points from the past six, putting them second in a table over that game frame. This matches their best unbeaten run of the season, when they hit a purple patch of two wins and two draws in November. Opta say they have not won three games in a row since April 2021.

Winning at Swindon shows Gary Bowyer's men finally have belief, perhaps. Liam Shephard and Ryan Watson netted in a comeback victor. Both have two goals in four game. The perennial pre-season favourites still have a long way to go to bridge a five point gap to the play-off positions though.

Few in pre-season predicted Forest Green would be top, certainly not by so many points. They never really got going in the first half at Crawley last weekend, suffering a first away defeat of the season. Left-back Dom Bernard netted after 80 minutes to give them a sniff of a draw, but the Reds had done the hard work on them, keeping possession early on, packing the midfield and not allowing the visitors to play their game. Matt Stevens and Jamille Matt had few openings.

I'm not expecting a Devon Loch story, where they drop dramatically with the line in sight. They should have enough resolve to find a way to earn another draw after the battle to earn a point at Newport in midweek. Afterall, as Opta point out, they are unbeaten in their two EFL trips to Salford, drawing one and winning one. Salford seem a stiff enough prospect at present to share the spoils.

U's need to win to stay in contention

Sutton 2.47/5 v Rochdale 3.55/2; the draw 3.6466/25

Matt Gray is still loving life in League Two heading up Sutton United's first season - and the layers continue to underestimate his side. While teams who can't buy a win continue to be close to odds on (Leyton Orient are 2.111/10 or close to it) the U's continue to be a generous price by comparison.

It's true that Sutton's form looks like it has dipped, with seven draws in their past 13 games (and four from the last six). Opta point out that they have not won consecutive games since New Year's Day. But they have only been beaten once in that 13-match stretch. Furthermore, the teams they have drawn with recently are ones either at the top of the table or who were in form at the time: Forest Green, Bristol Rovers, Northampton, Salford.

Their latest triumph was a 4-1 win over Scunthorpe, with defender Joe Kizzi finding his rare scoring touch for the second game running. That should give them enough confidence to beat a side who have won just once in nine away games, as Opta point out.

Gray would prefer that David Ajiboye, Richie Bennett and Isaac Olaafe finished off the chances, but won't care who scores as long as they register another win to add to the 10 they have at Gander Green Lane already. I love it when managers who come from non-league talk of having reached the 50 point mark to stay up as early as February. And the fans would love it if they could continue to ride high in that top five space they have occupied for much of the season.

By comparison, opponents Rochdale must be feeling a little shell-shocked having lost at lowly Carlisle, whose new manager continues to galvanise them. Having not scored in three games, Robbie Stockdale's side netted in six in a row to be on a run of one defeat in eight, but with only two wins. Northampton felt they suffered an off day when losing at Spotland a fortnight ago.

Rochdale, who beat Sutton in the reverse fixture in October, at least have found Tahvon Campbell in goalscoring mood since his arrival after top scorer Jake Beesley left for Blackpool. Jimmy Ball has also contributed two in recent weeks.

The visitors have suffered five defeats in their last nine away games, however. It would take a big effort and a form upset to topple Sutton at home. The hosts could even sneak back into the top three with a victory (or could slip out of the top seven with anything less), which is incentive enough to earn one.

Valiants have enough to overcome Colchester draws

Colchester 3.185/40 v Port Vale 2.68/5; the draw 3.4461/25

With five from seven midweek games ending level, surely a slight drop in draws can be expected at the weekend? Newport v Bristol Rovers might be another for anyone wanting to add to the Salford match, but I prefer to think that Colchester and Port Vale will not end level.

Both do have several draws of late. Colchester are winless in six, have three draws. Port Vale are unbeaten in nine games, six of them drawn including a 1-1 draw at Harrogate on Tuesday, courtesy of Ryan Edmonson finding an equaliser in a much-improved second half performance.

Assistant manager Andy Crosby denies that a play-off spot is slipping away after the Valiants dropped to 10th. They are, afterall, still only three points off the top seven. But if they want to earn that play-off position, they really have to put a winning - not just drawing - run together.

Sensibly, Jamie Proctor, a focal point up front, was left out of the squad - rested was the word - as he returns from a long stretch injured. However, they really need their top scorer, who has seven goals from 11 starts and six substitute appearances, for the run-in. He should be back on Saturday, for the trip to Essex where the hosts look vulnerable to one of Port Vale's better away days. (Three have three draws and a win from their last four on their travels.)

Wayne Brown's side haven't improved much, ultimately, after sacking Hayden Mullins in mid-January. An initial bounce of two wins and two draws has been replaced by a familiar pattern of struggle. In their last six games, they have lost three and drawn three - all at home, to Leyton Orient, Oldham and Carlisle. There is a hint of resilience there, then, and they will look to Alan Judge and Freddie Sears to continue their run of eight home draws.

Opta say they haven't won in eight at home, last suffering a worse run (11) in March 2016. And I think the visitors should have the quality, experience and desire to earn all three points and take their first consecutive wins at Colchester since 1964, add Opta.