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Pools still have urgency for points
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Last throw of the dice for Sutton
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Cobblers price is too big
Kemp and Jennings inspiring visitors
Newport 1.9210/11 v Hartlepool 4.84/1; the draw 3.613/5
Newport's form has been OK of late, but nothing special. A chastening 4-0 defeat at Stockport on Monday came after an unbeaten run of six, but with four draws. Nine points from six games.
Form wise, Hartlepool don't seem much better - 10 points from six matches. However, John Askey's charges are on a roll and a mission - to stay up. Newport have little resting on their results.
Could the visitors, unbeaten in eight, actually take a third win in four and, having risen out of the bottom two, potentially extend the gap to Crawley below them? (They host the Sussex side a week on Saturday, which could be explosive.)
Keeper Jakub Stolarczyk and his defence have not kept a clean sheet in 13 games, so potentially they will have to score twice against Graham Coughlan's hosts, who beat Northampton the last time they appeared at Rodney Parade.
A rollocking from their humbling reverse will surely inspire Omar Bogle, Manchester United loanee forward Charlie McNeill and co into looking lively at home. However, Hartlepool have a man in form in Dan Kemp and another in Connor Jennings, who have both netted regularly since arriving in January.
Holding high-flying Stevenage at home last Monday will have given them heart (even if Boro don't have a particularly great away record). This might well end up a draw, but the away team's urgency for points is hard to resist at the price, given their current form.
Low-scoring Tranmere just what Crawley need
Crawley Town 2.77/4 v Tranmere 3.02/1; the draw 3.412/5
The Opta stat that Crawley are unbeaten in their past five home games (winning two) is exactly the sort of thing their supporters will want to hear. To be reminded that their last longer such run, in October 2020, was 14 games will both delight and frustrate them.
During their last home match, a goalless draw against high-flying Bradford, one observer noted that Scott Lindsey's men had six corners in the first 20 minutes, but no shots on target.
Having slipped into the bottom two after a mauling at Barrow - the second game in a row they did not score - their need for points is now urgent. Dom Telford needs to rekindle his magic at Newport last season, when he was the League Two top scorer, very quickly. The bench is no place for him in this particular crisis. Ashley Nadesan is perfectly capable of creating a nuisance to any defenders. Creating chances. Shooting. Running the channels.
Ian Dawes's side could be at just the wrong stage of their formline to give the Red Devils a helping hand. Tranmere, point out Opta, have only one twice in their past 13 games (losing seven) since winning three away on the bounce without conceding in September/October.
In their past 13 games, Tranmere have scored eight goals - two away and not more than one per game. In their past six games they have conceded nine times, getting Micky Mellon the sack in the process.
Forward Harvey Saunders has started to score under Dawes at least, while eight goal top scorers Kane Hemmings and Josh Hawkes are both capable of scoring, they just seem to be doing it infrequently. It is now or never for the hosts in their bid to stay up.
U's have a proud home record
Sutton United 3.185/40 v Leyton Orient 2.6613/8; the draw 3.39/4
Which will happen first? The end of the World Snooker Championships on May 1st or Leyton Orient being crowned champions of League Two? (It's a busy couple of weeks in front of the TV for me!)
Paul Wellens' men seem pretty determined to draw their way to the title and still need seven points to earn promotion - let alone to finish top - if fifth-placed Stevenage win their final six games.
Drawing at home to lowly Harrogate, after a fine 2-0 win over playoff chasing Salford, shows their vulnerability, even with Ruel Sotiriou returning to scoring form with four in four games (and five in eight). The visitors to Gander Green Lane have scored in each of their past 12 games, but five of their six draws in that unbeaten run have come in their last seven games.
Just as you think there is a pattern of them drawing against lower ranked teams, they have beaten Rochdale and Crawley in that time, plus Crewe and AFC Wimbledon; Not exactly teams who are setting the division alight. Wins against Carlisle and the Ammies have shown, perhaps, their true mettle. Opta point out that no teams have lost fewer games away than Orient (three others also have four) but they do have six draws.
However, away attackers Paul Smyth and Sotiriou might have to be at their very best to defeat Sutton on their own turf.- and not just because Matt Gray's men really are in the last chance saloon if they are to reach the top seven (being nine points off with five games left). Sutton have had another strong season at home, a plus eight goal difference built on winning 11, drawing four and only losing five.
By their own standards, three draws and three defeats from their last six overall has been a disappointing return. Before two 1-0 home reverses in that run, they won eight from an unbeaten 10 at home, including holding Stevenage to a goalless draw. If Will Randall can give Omar Bugiel or Lee Angol strong chances, they could well hold the visitors, but sadly for them only take a point which will effectively kill off their playoff place chances.
Injury-hit visitors still prospering
Carlisle 2.35/4 Northampton 3.929/10; the draw 3.39/4
The Cobblers are a big price to win at Carlisle and there are a few good reasons it could be good to take it.
Firstly, Paul Simpson's men have not scored in five of their past six games - and Northampton will not want to get caught in the trap of adding to the Cumbrians' seven goalless draws this season (three of them in the past six games).
It's true that the hosts have had a tough fixture list of late, including Stevenage, Bradford, Leyton Orient and reborn Gillingam. Simpson insists fans should enjoy the ride to the end of the season, but that's tough when the team has flirted with the top three but now sits fourth. The carrot of automatic promotion has been dangled. He wants to silence the doubters.
Kristian Dennis (19 goals) needs to be at the top of his scoring game to ensure the hosts get anything, with Jon Mellish and Owen Moxon way behind him on five goals apiece as next scorer. Cancel him out and perhaps Jon Brady's men have every chance of that big odds win.
Brady hopes to have at least one injured player return, whether or not Harvey Lintott can recover after coming off halfway through the Easter Monday win at Gillingham. The visitors are stretched at the back, midfielder Jack Sowerby having to slot into the defence.
Six of 11 injured are definitely out for the season, meaning that Town will want to make doubly sure they don't slip to fourth again like last season and end up in the playoffs. Even with injuries, they have proven pretty robust, winning four and drawing another from their last six, Louis Appere coming to their rescue with two goals in three games.
He has contributed well alongside Sam Hoskins and Mitch Pinnock. They could well steal an important victory, even if Carlilse have kept a clean sheet in their last four at home, winning three, stress Opta.
Recommended bets
Back Hartlepool to beat Newport @ 4.84/1
Back Crawley Town to beat Tranmere @ 2.77/4