League Two Tips: Back Cumbrians for three points

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Paul Simpson will hope to earn another three points with Carlisle

Barrow have a strong chance at home against a side unable to win at present, says Ian Lamont, who also backs a Carlisle victory, but Hartlepool to draw...

  • AFC Wimbledon not finding form

  • Carlisle look to build a gap

  • Back a Stockport stalemate


Bluebirds can add to Jackson's woes

Barrow 2.26/5 v AFC Wimbledon 4.216/5; the draw 3.39/4

A long trip to Barrow is not likely to hold much joy in the hearts and minds of AFC Wimbledon's team on the back of a poor run of one point from six games.

Left-back Chris Gunter's absence, having joined Rob Page's Welsh coaching staff for the international break, will not boost their mood as they face a team who have one defeat in five, including three wins.

When you have just lost at home to the team that was only one point better off in the form table (three points, against two) the spiral seems only down.

Manager Johnnie Jackson felt his side should understand the fans' negative reaction during the defeat to Crawley, one in which they failed to trouble the visiting keeper. He said the team "looked off it".

Josh Davison and Ethan Chislett owe their team a goal perhaps, while Ali Al-Hamadi, who netted six in six games before last weekend, still awaits being on the winning side when scoring.

While Barrow have nine home wins and an eye on reaching the top seven, there is one note of hope for their visitors perhaps. The Bluebirds have scored either none or once in each of their last 12 games, netting in exactly half of those.

It is not often that Pete Wild's men have conceded more than once in that time either, losing 2-0 at Northampton then 5-1 at Carlisle, but otherwise letting in one goal five times. Opta point out in their last nine games, Barrow's matches have produced no more than a goal for each side. The last time teams went 10 games like that was Wycombe in 2016.

It is a big advantage that Niall Canavan, Sam McClelland and co have helped keeper Paul Farman keep five clean sheets in their last 12. Even though AFC Wimbledon have a League Two topping seven goalless draws this season, Josh Gordon, Josh Kay or Billy Waters might only need one chance to take all three points for the hosts.

Back Barrow to beat AFC Wimbledon @

2.2

Will Austin power up for another draw?

Swindon 3.711/4 v Stockport 2.35/4; the draw 3.55/2

Stockport are the shorter price - and similar to Barrow to defeat AFC Wimbledon - but recent runs from these sides suggest a more level playing field than the odds indicate.

Swindon have been hit and miss, struggling to keep pace with the play-off contenders by drawing three of their last four, after winning twice in a row.

Jody Morris's men showed such promise in their 4-4 draw at Rochdale, leading early and never being behind.

To be caught in stoppage time must have been galling, especially for striker Charlie Austin who scored all four. Opta say the last time a player did that and wasn't on the winning side was Kerry Dixon in 1982, when Reading lost 7-5 to Doncaster.

Semi-regular scorer Jacob Wakeling has also helped to secure a draw, at Leyton Orient, in recent weeks. Stockport have been less forthcoming in front of goal recently, dampening their chances against the odds they have been dealt. They also have three draws in their past four, two of them goalless, against Doncaster and Gillingham. Boss Dave Challinor might have an eye on even automatic promotion, but the Hatters have scored just twice in five games.

Yes, as Opta point out, they have lost just once in 11, but Stockport would have to return to scoring twice or more, as they did in the preceding five games, to justify their odds. Their opponents, like them, have nine points from the past six games.

Will Collar would love to return to that period, having netted five in five. Paddy Madden has retaken the club's outright bragging rights as top scorer with 10, in the draw against Mansfield, and another level pegging result could ensue here.

Back Swindon and Stockport to draw @

3.5

Battling pools can hold Orient

Hartlepool 5.39/2 v Leyton Orient 1.910/11; the draw 3.613/5

Draw chances abound this weekend, even at Victoria Park. Leyton Orient have not been in quite as great form since Christmas as they were before, but they are still runaway leaders. Richie Wellens' men have drawn four of their last six, including their last three.

That's in an unbeaten run of six, but they have racked up three goalless draws since Boxing Day and failed to score in another three matches. Even a 2-0 lead, earned by George Moncur and Ruel Sotiriou, was not enough to earn victory against an old manager and Colchester last Saturday.

Away form has not been as fruitful as at home - eight wins compared to 13 - but while that is little different to the best teams in the division away, they are facing Hartlepool who are one of League Two's draw specialists - especially lately.

Led by their third manager of the season, John Askey, Pools have earned four draws on the trot, starting with an astonishing clawback to 3-3 with Walsall featuring two strikes after 90 minutes.

Dan Kemp and Connor Jennings, with his first of the season, earned an unlikely point. They even led twice at Bradford last weekend, Callum Cooke netting against his former club. Every point counts in their battle to stay up.

Opta point out they have not drawn four or more in a row since 2011 when they managed six.

Back Hartlepool and Leyton Orient to draw @

3.6

Carlisle have momentum

Gillingham 3.412/5 v Carlisle 2.56/4; the draw 3.211/5

At the odds, it appears I am talking a bit of a chance on Carlisle to win at Gillingham, but I'll live with that. The Cumbrians are top of the six-game form table with four wins and two draws, joint with Northampton whom they leapfrogged into the third automatic promotion place, on Tuesday night.

That was after helping Bradford equal the unwanted record of matching Walsall and AFC Wimbledon with seven goalless draws in League Two this season (Carlisle have six). Paul Simpson, the Carlisle manager, says he wants to make the season finale memorable. They need to open up a gap now to the Cobblers.

The visiting manager hopes to have defender Paul Huntingdon and Jack Ellis back from injuries, but needs Omari Patrick or even 17-goal Kristian Dennis to turn in a chance. It's been eight games since he did so.

Even for a team which has drawn or won their last five away from home, defeating Gillingham will not be straightforward.

Neil Harris's hosts cannot afford to stop looking over their shoulders to the drop zone, even 10 points clear, at this stage of the season. Tom Nichols and Aiden O'Brien - no, not the famous horse trainer - earned full points against Crewe on Tuesday, giving them a fifth win in eight.

They failed to score in the other three, losing twice. In that period they have netted twice per game or not at all. This could be one of those days when they do the latter as their visitors firm up a top three spot.

Back Carlisle to win at Gillingham @

2.5

Recommended bets

Back Barrow to beat AFC Wimbledon @ 2.26/5

Back Swindon and Stockport to draw @ 3.55/2

Back Hartlepool and Leyton Orient to draw @ 3.613/5

Back Carlisle to win at Gillingham @ 2.56/4

P/L 2022-23

-5.44pt

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