League Two Tips: Adams family can deliver on Boxing Day

15:00 kick-offs unless stated

Manager's exit really puts Spokes in Grimsby's work

Morecambe 2.0421/20 v Grimsby 4.216/5; the draw 3.814/5

Goals could also be in evidence as Morecambe beat Grimsby. The poor Mariners just didn't seem to be doing boss Ian Holloway's distinguished career CV any good. A headache surrounding a takeover - seemingly imminent now - has been the tipping point for the former Crystal Palace boss to quit this week.

Midfielder Luke Spokes impressed in defeat to Bradford in midweek - according to many including the manager. But that's not enough. Five or six need to do so.

It's true that Bradford appear revived after the all too inevitable exit of boss Stuart McCall. Holloway felt there were many positives: that his side had another goal in them after getting one back; that the attitude after falling behind was positive; but admitted they couldn't break down the Bantams for the equaliser; the balance of when to go forward and when to move was better; there were positive signs. (The initial price on the Morecambe win has dropped a bit from 2.1411/10 after Tuesday's defeat).

Grimsby were waiting on clearance to sign former Norwich striker Pierre Fonteu before the manager left. Elliott Hewitt proved his versatility by slotting in at centre back, but playing out of position never helps cohesion past the short-term, if then. Keeper James Keown was pretty much a bystander in a rare win for the 20th-placed team against Scunthorpe on Saturday, but could do little about Bradford's two strikes.

The fact Grimsby shipped 18 goals in the seven league games (one win) before that - and scored seven - increases thoughts of goals in this game, especially when Morecambe have netted in 13 consecutive divisional matches. They have also conceded 10 in their past nine games.

It is rare for Morecambe to score more than twice, however. But whereas Grimsby have several players top scoring with two goals, the hosts have Aaron Wildig on four plus Carlos Mendes-Gomes and Adam Phillips on five apiece (three of them penalties). The Shrimps have scored two goals in each of their past two games, including when inflicting a first home defeat this season on Colchester, last weekend.

Four wins in five games (one defeat) indicates they are on one of their purple patches which are keeping them far higher than I initially expected in the table, in fifth. No wonder boss Derek Adams has made it public that he doesn't want to see any festive slip-ups. This, however, might represent the best chance of a festive win ahead of trips to Bolton and Bradford before Chelsea beckon in the FA Cup. A couple of days before Christmas is really the worst time to be finding a temporary staff member to manage the team for the game.

Surprisingly, over 2.5 goals is 2.26/5 rather than under evens, while on Sportsbook combining the Morecambe win with over 2.5 goals is 23-10, which has to be the main play.

Expect goals when tired Exiles visit Crawley

Crawley 3.02/1 v Newport 2.56/4; the draw 3.711/4

League Two followers have been treated to goals in the past few rounds of matches (31 in 11 games last weekend), so it seems right to seek them out. This match should provide them, possibly in draw form.

Why? Crawley have scored in the past six (12 times, conceding 10), losing once and now unbeaten in five. Confidence abounds whether Tom Nichols and Max Watters start up front, or whether Ashley Nadeson does. Has manager John Yems been rotating a young squad well or deliberately saving the best line-up for the big games because he wants to take points from the likes of Newport?

The dressing room teased Watters before Saturday's winner that he was on a "goal drought" because he hadn't scored in two games! He has 13 goals in 11 starts and three substitute appearances - and only signed in October, a month into the season.

The Exiles have scored in every game this season, and nine times in the past six games, conceding nine. That includes four in defeat to free-scoring Oldham. Boss Michael Flynn said all those goals were avoidable. He was also furious that Padraig Amond, however reliable he might normally be, was handed the ball for a penalty by captain Josh Sheehan, against pre-match instructions. Substitute Amond's spot kick was saved. It sounds like the Exiles are a little tired.

Discipline and following instructions (or not) was a theme from losing managers last weekend in particular. At the heart of Flynn's infuriation, no doubt, was the real issue that the Welsh team had led twice and were undone, 4-2.

The fact Flynn can spare Amond to the bench, partially to develop Swindon's loanee Scott Twine and Tristan Abrahams, shows the strength in depth. So, equally, will he bring that big gun out to start? Both teams have big FA Cup games looming at home, Crawley v Leeds and Newport v Brighton.

Newport are mid-table in the six-game form statistics, a few places below Crawley, and are average, results wise, on the road. This gives Crawley every chance. The hosts, surely, will be wiser for the 3-0 defeat to Carlisle at home a few weeks ago that undid their long unbeaten run at the Broadfield. We now find out how good midfielder Jake Hessenthaler, much praised after last Saturday, and Crawley's reshaped defence with Tom Dallison in the middle really are, against the top side, as the Reds sniff the play-off places.

Interestingly, Crawley have three 1-1 draws in their past eight, Newport three in seven, both of them with two of those away from home.

If it is to be a draw, it will be a scoring one and I am going in any case for over 3.5 goals at 3.412/5.

13:00 kick-off

Players queuing up to give Shrimpers a free shot in the arm

Southend 3.02/1 v Colchester 2.6413/8; the draw 3.613/5

Here's one for the Boxing Day upsets box. Except, would it be so surprising if Southend actually won? The teams at the bottom usually start winning not in the New Year but just before Christmas as is easily perceived.

That goalless draw at fellow bottom two club Stevenage seems to have given the Shrimpers a platform for some belief. Boss Mark Molesley said there was a noticeable difference in the dressing room after only drawing at Mansfield - the players were devastated not to have actually won. (For context, Nigel Clough said his Stags didn't start playing until half-time and is frustrated at the players reverting to type after the initial bounce in results after his arrival.)

Arsenal loanee James Olayinka, 20, has found his feet now, with two goals in three after none in his first nine appearances. Greg Halford's experience is no doubt helping. Nile Ranger, a troubled soul in the past, is apparently following Halford's lead by being willing to train and potentially play for free. Who would have thought out of work players would ever have been so desperate as to target the lowest ranked Football League team in such a way?

The hosts are now unbeaten in four. However, they would have to score twice to win I suspect, because Colchester have scored in every League Two game since the opening day's goalless draw at Bradford.

Southend scored twice - in fact three times - in their last home match, against Scunthorpe and are unbeaten in four games.

Steve Ball's visitors draw a lot on the road, five times so far, and have only won once on their travels. Hence their slipping to 10th place. They lost at home for the first time on Saturday, to Morecambe, after a bombardment of 10 shots on target and eight off against them. They also lost at fast falling Cambridge, and drew at the form-muddled Port Vale.

Ball said his side lost their shape, concentration and focus against Morecambe. He knows that Ben Stevenson, Michael Folivi and Luke Norris can put away chances on a better day. Or more to the point Callum Harriot and Jevani Brown. But do they believe it, especially away, at present? Particularly with that 6-1 mauling at Exeter still fairly fresh in the memory, from November 24th. They have scored and conceded in equal measure - 27 - in their 19 games.

And do they believe they can win and want this result as badly as Southend, to kick start a far better 2021 than 2020? A price of 3.02/1 - or 2-1 - on the hosts might even herald a correct score prediction. But I'm going to stick with the idea of an "outsider's chance" home win. It's more fun and profitable than the Sportsbook offer of 10-11 on Southend 'draw no bet'. And so is over 2.5 goals @ 2.26/5.