League One Tips: Six bets for Christmas with Bolton set to frustrate Rams

• Two Boxing Day matches previewed

• Rams travel to Bolton for top TV clash

• Alan Dudman has six bets for the upcoming festive League One matches

Wednesday's lack of goals becoming a problem in title push

Fleetwood Town v Sheffield Wednesday
Monday 26th December, kick-off 15:00

This is just the third league meeting between Fleetwood and Sheffield Wednesday, with the Owls completing the league double over the Cod Army last season, but Scott Brown's side are in far better shape it appears now and are currently in a run of just one defeat in seven League One matches.

Sheffield Wednesday were nominated for last weekend's column to win by exactly one goal on the Sportsbook against Oxford United, and while their excellent defence stood firm again with another clean sheet, they failed to fire at the other end for a 0-0. That was their seventh draw of the campaign.

The draws and lack of goals needs to be remedied soon for a real shot at the title, but they are unbeaten in 10, although Josh Murphy missed a penalty in the last minute at Hillsborough.

Karl Robinson said of his U's: "We looked a cut above against a top team."

Fleetwood don't score many, and don't concede either, and Cod Army boss Scott Brown has added a lot of protection to the backline when he faces good teams this season, and with a record of F9 A8 at home, it's a game the Under 2.5 Goals backers will be licking their lips in anticipation with the 1.824/5 price on offer.

Maybe away from Yorkshire the shackles will be released, but in the Owls last six games, all have hit the Under 2.5 mark, with two 0-0s and a pair of 1-1s and they have scored more than once in just one game in seven.

I think we can back the Under 2.5 Goals with confidence here, and as I fancy the draw, there's no reason why we cannot include the Bet Builder with the pair at nearly 3/1 on the Sportsbook.

I certainly think Fleetwood are overpriced at 5.49/2 as Darren Moore's team are currently in a sticky patch, that's evident, and Wednesday away from home at 1.774/5 is far too short.

Two of Wednesday's last three have been 0-0, so the trade to half-time would be the most appealing to play on the Correct Score</a market and we can start with a back of 10.519/2 and lay off your stake before the break hopefully.

Both are similar in terms of their xA. Town are 1.39 against and Wednesday 1.41.

KEY OPTA STAT: Fleetwood have failed to score in three of their five home Boxing Day games in the Football League, but they have won both times they've found the net (D1 L2).

Still no manager in at the MK Dons

MK Dons v Forest Green Rovers
Monday 26th December, kick-off 15:00

MK Dons are winless in their last nine home league games (D2 L7), their longest such run since a run of 15 between March and November 2016, and it's hardly an ideal starting point if you want to back them at 1.875/6 for a victory against Forest Green on Boxing Day.

However, to even out that particular Venn diagram, according to Opta; of all teams to have played at least 10 Boxing Day games in Football League history, MK Dons have the highest win rate (59% - won 10/17). So at least they like the 26th, it's just the price that isn't particularly likeable.

I haven't been a huge fan of Rovers this term, and they looked dreadful when I watched them on Sky earlier in the season. I am somewhat surprised Ian Burchnall still has the job considering his predecessor Rob Edwards was sacked at Watford, and that could have been a perfect time to draw and lure Edwards back.

Forest Green have won two of their last three but were thumped 4-0 at Derby last weekend and completely lost their shape and discipline in terms of tactics and game management.

They opened up the game, which was a silly thing to do against Paul Warne's Rams, who showed abundant quality with a masterclass from David McGoldrick and it looked exactly what it was - a Championship team against a previous League Two team.

MK Dons are still without a manager since Liam Manning's sacking. That's three games now and the news from Buckinghamshire has gone quiet.

Bradley Johnson (pictured below) is currently in the caretaker role with Dean Lewington and David Martin (and I always have visions of the brown overcoat) and the trio had no chance against Leicester in Wednesday's 0-3 drubbing in the Carabao Cup defeat on Wednesday. The chasm was laid bare as Johnson said "Leicester didn't give the ball away once."

Down to the nuts and bolts of price, considering MK's 0-2 success last week (and a successful tip at a decent price for the column) was their first win in two months, they shouldn't be 1.875/6, it's awful value.

Even if the stat that all teams to have played at least 10 Boxing Day games in Football League history, MK Dons have the highest win rate (59% - won 10/17) is a good one. But not good enough for a 4/6 bet.

I prefer the Both Team To Score angle on the Exchange at around 2.01/1 as I think it's a game both teams will be happy to take a point from, and they've failed to score in four of their home games this term.

Rovers have conceded 25 on the road, which is the joint-worst away defence in the division, but the Dons are fairly easy to play against and I prefer the draw for the outright as the visitors on the road are W1 D5 L5.

KEY OPTA STAT: Forest Green Rovers are unbeaten in all three of their Boxing Day games in the Football League (W1 D2), with each of their previous three also coming away from home.

Bolton and Derby to split the points for TV clash

Bolton Wanderers v Derby County
Tuesday 27th December, kick-off 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

A closely matched Tuesday offering on Sky with just a point between fifth-placed Bolton and sixth-placed Derby, although the hosts have to reverse some poor stats as Bolton have won just one of their last five home league games against Derby (D2 L2), though it was the last such meeting in September 2018 (1-0).

At first glance, Derby look a big price here at 3.02/1 and it's not often the Rams are seen at that price be it home or away, but Wanderers have a superb home record this season at W7 D2 L2, and most impressive is the 'goals against' column at just eight - second only to Peterborough (six).

Ian Evatt's team were 2-0 winners last weekend against Exeter although they didn't have too many shots on target. Evatt played a new back three and the first-half was far better than the second period where they looked tired. Their game is aggressive and fast-paced and like to be on the front foot, but while the energy levels dipped, they limited the Grecians to very few chances.

Derby haven't lost a game since the 21st October and that was a 1-0 defeat at Ipswich, since then Warne's team have collected three draws from four with a pair of 1-1s, and that's a possibility for this, as they struggled to break down Burton in a 1-1 at the Pirelli earlier this month.

That was in the face of the Burton long ball, and Warne adapted his team for the long throw-ins and set-pieces, but the lack of a second goal to kill the game off was evident.

Under 2.5 Goals is the 8/11 favourite against Evens on Over 2.5, and I do think in these tight games with evenly matched teams, it's a case of neither wanting to give away too much ground on the either.

David McGoldrick produced a quality display in midweek in the Carabao Cup with a stunning hat-trick, and he's a 9/4 Anytime Goalscorer price on the Sportsbook. Bolton's Dion Charles has 10 in 24 this term and has four in his last three matches and the 5/1 first goalscorer price could be the punt.

But ultimately, I like the draw as Bolton have lost just one of their last 17 home league games on a Tuesday (W10 D6), going down 2-0 against Wycombe in January this year.

KEY OPTA STAT: Derby have won just one of their last 12 league games played on Tuesday (D6 L5), beating Hull 3-1 in February this year.