League One Tips: Posh weakness against play-off sides will haunt them on Saturday

• Plymouth a great price for Posh trip

• Bolton odds-on but look strong

• Alan Dudman has four bets for Saturday

Posh vulnerable again versus a top eight side

Peterborough United v Plymouth Argyle
Saturday 25th February, kick-off 15:00

I've often been an advocate of Peterborough, even through the lean times, but sometimes a market and prices look plain wrong, and for the life of me I cannot see why the Posh should be Evens and Plymouth 5/2. It's a layer's price if you are taking on the hosts, and the Greens look excellent value.

Posh do have the home form behind them, but I weighed in with the draw for their Bolton match recently and they were thumped 0-5, and it's their record against top eight sides that makes them extremely vulnerable.

There's a gap of 21 points between the two, but that record against the top sides is something manager Darren Ferguson is mindful of. He said this week: "If we don't start beating the top sides we will just stay where we are. It's something that has to change and we have a chance to do that on Saturday, albeit in a very hard game against a big squad full of quality players who have enjoyed an exceptional season."

It's one win in nine against promotion chasing sides for Posh, that is not form that warrants an Evens price.

Peterborough have conceded nine of their 15 home league goals so far this season in their last three games (60% - W1 L2), including five in their last such game against Bolton, losing 5-0 to the Trotters, and that stat is important here as the Greens have only lost three on the road and have scored 25 in away games.

Plymouth have been defeated just once since December 2nd on the road, and that was a 1-0 loss to Sheffield Wednesday.

We can try to be fancy here, but a straightforward away win at around 5/2 is the headline bet, and it's a marvellous price to boost the Bet Builder selections.

Plymouth clinched a Papa John's Final place in midweek and it's back to business for Saturday but Steve Schumacher has immediately switched his attentions to the Posh by saying: "They will always pose a good attacking output so we will have to make sure we do our defending well, and cause them a problem when we have the ball if we can."

The Greens will have to keep quiet Jonson Clarke-Harris, who has 18 goals in 36 appearances this term, but defensively they have been excellent against the big teams this term - conceding one apiece against Ipswich and Sheffield Wednesday, and they kept out Bolton with a 0-0 on the road.

Schumacher usually plays a 3-4-2-1 formation, although they couldn't unlock a five-man defence against Fleetwood recently in a 0-0 and a game of few chances - and only the second time Plymouth failed to win a game in 16 at Home Park.

Ryan Hardie is Plymouth's leading goal-getter this term with 15, and he's a one-in-two man for the Greens. Playing him to score anytime on the Sportsbook in a double with Plymouth to win pays a little over 5/1.

Although I quite like Finn Azaz here, and his seven in 25 this term from midfield is to be considered and with his role behind Hardie, he could have some joy against a defence that can often appear ragged.

KEY OPTA STAT: Plymouth beat Peterborough 2-0 in the reverse fixture in August - they've never beaten Posh home and away in the same Football League campaign, while they last won successive games against them in September 2009.

Bolton have booked Wembley and can make Evatt's day on 150

Bolton Wanderers v Port Vale
Saturday 25th February, kick-off 15:00

Ian Evatt's Bolton are one of the form teams at the moment in League One, so it's not a shock they are 8/13 favourites this weekend on the Sportsbook for the visit of Port Vale, and with some very short prices this weekend, that isn't a bad price.

Certainly one for a few teams in a Bet Builder.

Bolton have kept a clean sheet in each of their previous seven home league games - the last side in the third tier to go eight such games without conceding was Chesterfield in November 2002, and armed with that stat we should be in good shape to play on the Handicap.

The Bolton -1 on the Exchange market at 2.8615/8 looks worth playing for this weekend, and that appeals a little more than the 'No' in the BTTS market.

Evatt will be celebrating his 150th game in charge of the club on Saturday, and he currently has a better win ratio than any post-War Bolton manager, having won 73 of his first 149 games in charge. It will be a good place (and price) to celebrate at home this weekend with another win.

The hosts will welcome back Shola Shoretire, Victor Adeboyejo and Dan Lundulu, as Evatt was stretched a little for their recent Papa John's win that booked their final place against Plymouth.

Bolton have used the loan market superbly this term in raiding their local friends, with Shoretire from Manchester United and James Trafford with Luke Mbete from City.

"It's crazy to think with so many new ones in January, but the way they've all connected together is superb," said Evatt.

Port Vale try to play an expansive game, but they have lost eight on the road this season and have conceded 25 goals away and look far too open at times. They have only won once since mid-January and their style will make them vulnerable against a side that had 11 shots on target recently against the MK Dons at home in a 5-0 win.

Bolton are 1.52 for and 1.17 against on the xG numbers this season at home, and that should see us collect the handicap bet against a Vale team that compare with an xA of 1.33 away.

KEY OPTA STAT: Port Vale manager Darrell Clarke has won only one of his five previous Football League meetings with Bolton (D2 L2), winning 2-1 while in charge of Walsall in December 2020.

Tight game in store at Oakwell for a draw punt or two

Barnsley v Derby County

Saturday February 25th, kick-off 15:00

Plenty of big matches in League One this weekend, and with a big crowd and huge travelling contingent set for London Road and the Green Army, Derby will be going en masse to Oakwell, and it's such a shame none of these matches are ever showcased on Sky.

Barnsley are the bigger of the two here at around 3.052/1 on the Exchange, and it's a good time to face the Rams as their previous superb record six straight wins in all competitions has turned into a mini-wobble with two wins from their last four.

Paul Warne is excellent in the big games, and always was with Rotherham, and the close proximity of the Tykes in terms of a play-off place means this is a match he dare not lose - with Michael Duff's (pictured below) Barnsley just a point behind and a game in hand.

The hosts have an excellent home record in Yorkshire with nine wins and a sound defence too with only 14 shipped, and they are arguably the form side in League One at the moment with five wins from six - scoring in every one.

Derby lost their last away league game against Wycombe, not since March 1985 have the Rams lost successive away league fixtures in the same season outside the top two tier, and considering they have drawn six (compared to five wins on the road), I like the draw outright for this one at the biggest of the trio on offer.

Warne's side have won just two of their prior 11 Football League away matches against Barnsley (D5 L4), with both wins coming in the Championship in December 2013 (2-1) and December 2017 (3-0), and that "for five" column on the draws is another stat that sways me.

"They are in really good form, as are we, they've got really good players, as have we, and they are very well coached, as are we. There's really not a lot to pick between us. We've just got to try and win every game and that's what we'll do," said Warne ahead of the Oakwell trip, and there really isn't much between the pair.

Derby are a totally different side to when Barnsley last faced them, as Duff explained: "It is a typical Paul Warne team. They press and get after you and don't play one way.

"The first time we played Derby, every time they got the ball, they played out from the back no matter what. Warney's teams don't do that and are always known for being fit and they press and get after you. And they have got good players, I think they have lost one game since October, which shows the challenge we have got."

I don't see a lot between the two, and the table reflects that.

Backing the Draw outright and the Under 2.5 Goals on the Bet Builder pays around 7/1 too, and that's a bet I am happy to take which gives us the two correct scores as cover. The Correct Score plays of 0-0 and 1-1 also appeal to trade for this, especially the 1-1 on the Exchange from around 6/1.

James Chester and Max Bird are still ruled out for the Rams.

KEY OPTA STAT: Barnsley have won only three of their last 15 Football League meetings with Derby (D3 L9), including defeats on each of the previous two occasions.