League One Tips: Millers imperious defence tough to breach for Sunday's Yorkshire derby

Dons and Town to play out a draw?

MK Dons v Ipswich Town
Saturday 12th February, kick-off 15:00

Some fairly seismic fixtures this weekend await in League One, although Roy Keane won't be taking part or have anything to do with the third tier following the news he has turned down the Sunderland job and it has paved the way open for Alex Neil, who appears to have reached an agreement with the club.

One of Keane's former clubs are starting to win games - just as we all thought they would under Paul Cook, and Kieran McKenna goes head-to-head with his Dons counterpart Liam Manning in a game that could be worthy of a play-off fixture. Manning also used to coach at Ipswich before his first full-time manager's job.

Town are in touch with four wins from their last five, and they have kept three clean sheets in that run. McKenna is proving his worth since taking charge at Portman Road with a push of six wins from his eight games. The Tractor Boys are currently 4.03/1 in the Top Six Finish market. MK are in pole position in the same market and sit in third with 56 points and trade at 1.42/5.

This fixture represents a tactical test for McKenna, as his team had the possession in a recent success against Doncaster, who counter-attack. Role reversals will be very much the words here, as not many beat the Dons with the ball in terms of percentages, although they have never beaten Town in the Football League in six previous attempts (D3 L3), only facing Bristol City and Preston North End (10 each) more often without winning.

I like the three draws in that stat from Opta, as the visitors have been involved in several close games lately. And with their knack of keeping clean sheets of late, they face a Dons team that have conceded just 15 goals at home all season.

The draw represents the best bet and trade here from 3.39/4 for the outright bet, and while both teams average well in terms of their total goals for the season (2.81 and 2.74), it could be a bit tighter than those stats suggest. Indeed, the Under 2.5 price is a lot shorter at 1.845/6.

The To Score bets perhaps aren't as appealing in anticipation of a low score game. Bersant Celina, on-loan from QPR, has opened up things in terms of more creativity and he can cross a ball well. While the visitors have Macauley Bonne, who has three goals in two appearances against MK Dons in the Football League, including a brace for the Tractor Boys in a 2-2 draw against the Dons in August. However, Scott Twine always appeals in these markets with his long-range blockbusters.

Twine has 13 this season in 33 games, and scored in the reverse fixture that finished 2-2 earlier in the season in Suffolk.

KEY OPTA STAT: Ipswich have scored exactly once in their three away league matches against MK Dons, winning two games 1-0 and drawing 1-1 in the other.

A Mazuma low-scorer on the cards?

Morecambe v Gillingham
Saturday 12th February, kick-off 15:00

Morecambe have earned seven points from their last four league games at the Mazuma Stadium (W2 D1 L1), as many as they had won in their previous nine league games there (W1 D4 L4), and a win for Steve Robinson's team (currently four points ahead of Gillingham in 21st) will give them an extra cushion over the Kent club in terms of their League One survival.

The Shrimps last won a game on January 22nd, and have since drawn twice and lost twice. Their inconsistencies make them hard to work out, but they have averaged 1.25 points per game at home compared to just 0.60 on the road.

When Morecambe get it right, they look dangerous. Forward Cole Stockton's goals have carried the club with a stellar season of 21 in 35 appearances thus far, and backing him First Goal and Morecambe to win pays 5/1 on the Sportsbook using the Betbuilder.

The pitch in the north west doesn't help, and in poor conditions I can't see this being pretty. Gillingham's new manager Neil Harris oversaw a recent 1-0 win against Cambridge at the Priestfield, but it was an awful game of few chances on a poor surface too. A late goal from a set-piece gave the Gills the crucial three points, and with a few attacking players recently out and a switch to midfield three, the Under 2.5 Goals looks the bet.

Morecambe have beaten Wycombe at home this season, and while they have lost six at the Mazuma, Gillingham are dreadful travellers and don't score many on the road.

KEY OPTA STAT: Gillingham have failed to win any of their last nine league games away from home (D3 L6), the last time they went 10 away games without a win in the Football League was September 2017 (D3 L7).

Can Millers make it six on the spin?

Sheffield Wednesday v Rotherham United
Sunday 13th February, kick-off 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Football and Sky Sports Main Event

Sheffield Wednesday's impressive home defence at Hillsborough came to the fore on Tuesday night with a crucial 1-0 victory against Wigan. I backed the Latics to stymie the Owls, but their defensive record in Yorkshire with a "goals against" column of 10 is the best in the division. Credit to Darren Moore, a lot of credit, as they are missing players and double-figures was mentioned in terms of personnel out for the midweek game.

They are now 3.8514/5 in the Promotion market.

However, this is a different test altogether as the division's best team by a long way lie in wait for potentially the best, if not the most important game of the season. A perfect pick in front of the Sky cameras for Sunday.

The Millers are usually long odds-on, even away from home. I've seen 1.330/100 and 1.42/5 on a regular basis, so the fact we can side with them at 2.3611/8 says a fair bit about Wednesday's influence on the market, but we don't often get the opportunity to bet Paul Warne's side at around 6/4.

Rotherham United have won five of their last eight away league visits to Sheffield Wednesday (D2 L1), winning 2-1 last season in the Championship according to Opta, ad their away record, especially defensively, is imperious with just five goals conceded.

The best home defence and the best away backline means the Under 2.5 Goals is shorter than normal. I would prefer to go with the 0-0 Correct Score if that's a bet you are looking for. The market will be all over the Unders on Sunday.

However, the Millers are churning out wins with five in a row and five clean sheets. The Win to Nil market is an obvious one, but the 2.3611/8 looks too good to turn down for Sunday. The wingers could be a crucial role for Warne's side, as delivery is often key to their performances. They'll need to stretch play as Wednesday are one of the more mobile teams in the division.

Fresh from Joshua Kayode's first-ever goal on Tuesday in beating Wimbledon - a team that was set-up and equipped well to defend and deal with every single set-piece, the Millers have plenty of options and a strong bench. The Dons also attack at pace, but no one breaches the Rotherman defence.

KEY OPTA STAT: Rotherham boss Paul Warne is unbeaten in each of his last two trips to Sheffield Wednesday in the Football League (W1 D1), with his team scoring twice in both games.