League One Tips: Baink on Jimmy's Brewers once again at the Pirelli

Hasselbaink doing a fine job and a win looks on the cards

Burton Albion v AFC Wimbledon
Saturday 22nd January, kick-off 15:00

I expected some sort of response from Gillingham last weekend under interim manager Steve Lovell, and while the improvement looked on for 45 minutes with a 1-0 lead, Burton fired back with three second-half goals to take the points in typical sort of Albion style as they've been playing reasonably well.

The trio of strikes were poor defensively from the Gills, as the first was a cross from the left that wasn't dealt with. But the final goal was good work for some nice overlapping play. Even my old favourite John Brayford got on the scoresheet on 79 minutes. League One's most stylish dresser. It really was a case of them taking their chances as the Brewers only mustered four shots on target - and three were goals.

Gassan Academe impressed on full debut for Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, and Sam Hughes returned after a long absence and looked strong at the back. "What a personality and what a unit he is!" said the Burton boss, who must have been delighted with him coming through the game.

Albion have won their last three home league matches, scoring 10 goals in these wins. They last won four in a row on home soil in December 2019/January 2020 according to Opta, and are unbeaten against Wimbledon in their last eight matches. That's a good enough stat to make the 2.0621/20 a sound bet for Saturday. Especially with just three defeats at home all season.

Twelve months ago Burton were treading water under Jake Buxton, Hasselbaink has got them back. Although Lucas Akins' departure to Mansfield might have dented his plans slightly.

Wimbledon haven't scored a goal for five matches, and while the recent pair of 0-0's granted the Londoners two points in their quest for survival, their away record is poor with only four victories on the road - and three of those were early in the season. Backing Burton 'Yes' in the Win To Nil market makes a lot of sense, although Burton will need to cut out their slow and cold starts. Using Burton to win and Both Teams To Score 'No' using the Betbuilder with the Sportsbook pays 3.27227/100.

KEY OPTA STAT: AFC Wimbledon have lost their last two away league matches, their fifth such run in the last two seasons. They haven't lost three in a row on the road since losing six in a row in August and September 2019.

Back Salop to continue their renaissance

Shrewsbury Town v Bolton Wanderers
Saturday 22nd January, kick-off 15:00

Steve Cotterill's Shrewsbury have been chugging along in serene fashion in their attempt to drag themselves out of the relegation places, and slowly but surely they are getting there. With just two defeats in League One since late November, Cotterill should be able to see a position of around 14th in sight.

They didn't keep their first home clean sheet until October, but three have followed at the Greenhous and they earned a stalemate on the road against Crewe last weekend. The Alex have been the whipping boys all season, but of late they have improved with one or two shock wins, so it was a thoroughly decent point.

Once again they were roared on by the Salop faithful, with another near 1500 making the trip to Gresty Road to see a decent second-half performance and some good chances created.

With Salop now five unbeaten and four clean sheets, consistency is coming and they've also managed to keep the same starting eleven for their last five games. A settled side in the division is worth its weight in gold. Tyrese Fornah has also signed from Nottingham Forest on loan, and as a shielding midfielder who plays in front of the defence, he could fit in perfectly to Salop's system.

Bolton have lost their last seven away League One matches, their worst away losing run at this level since a run of eight between December 1988 and March 1989 under Phil Neal, and are surprisingly down to 17th. They've also lost nine on their travels, with only Doncaster losing more.

I expect a home win and am happy to go 1pt for the bet, as 2.47/5 under-rates them. You can also back the 1-0 and 2-0 on the Sportsbook at 13/2 and 10/1.

KEY OPTA STAT: Shrewsbury Town have kept a clean sheet in their last four league matches - they haven't kept five in a row at this level since December 1995 under Fred Davies.

Addicks awful value against back-to-form Cod Army

Charlton Athletic v Fleetwood Town
Saturday 22nd January, kick-off 15:00

I'll be in south London to cast my eyes over Charlton again this Saturday, and I always enjoy my trips south of the river. However, I can't say I am too enamoured with the 1.768/11 price on the hosts.

In fact, this is one those games where the prices look just plain wrong. The Addicks are without a win in four and having successfully backed the draw for last week's column at Cheltenham thanks to a very late Chuks Aneke goal in a 1-1, this has the makings for another low-scorer. Johnnie Jackson admitted his team played poorly in the smash and grab point, and making five changes to his side perhaps suggests he could be about to alter formation too?

Having a fit Aneke back at the club is a huge boost as he scored 17 last term, but the Londoners have been below par for a few weeks. Jackson is keen to persist with his 3-5-2, but I cannot fathom why anyone would want to back them at around 4/6.

Stephen Crainey is making a success of the job at Fleetwood since taking over from the sacked Simon Grayson in November, and they are now just one defeat from their last six. They also caused a huge shock last weekend in seeing off Rotherham 1-0 - and the Millers are 1.42/5 this weekend!

New signings Ellis Harrison, Toto Nsiala, and Zak Jules have settled in well but it's defensively where Crainey has sorted out the side with four clean sheets in five. They stuck to their game-plan doggedly on Saturday as Paul Warne the Rotherham boss felt Fleetwood played for the draw with only one team trying to win it.

The visitors are a massive price at 4.47/2, but with Opta stating that three of the four league meetings between Charlton and Fleetwood at the Valley have ended as draws, though the Addicks won 3-2 in the most recent encounter last season, we have enough here to play on the Double Chance. With the visitors excelling defensively at the moment, the 0-0 at around 11.010/1 looks an excellent trading option to lay back your stake, as this looks a potential low-scorer.

KEY OPTA STAT: Charlton Athletic have lost one of their nine Football League matches against Fleetwood Town (W3 D5), a 1-0 defeat back in February 2019.