League One Saturday Tips: Warne and Manning to cancel each other out

Back a share of the spoils in big game of the day

Rotherham United v MK Dons
Saturday 5th March, kick-off 15:00

The big ticket in town is once again involving Rotherham, and Saturday afternoon's match-up against third-placed MK Dons is the fixture of the weekend by a country mile. The Millers have been a great punting proposition of late, such is their supremacy in keeping clean sheets, and the column landed another win and clean sheet bet last weekend with a 0-1 success at Plymouth.

They were in action on Tuesday night too at Shrewsbury, and while they kept another shutout, they were held 0-0 by a side often under-rated in the betting at home. Steve Cotterill was fulsome in his praise of Rotherham, their players and staff, and likewise, with Paul Warne feeling relieved to come away with a point as they were under intense pressure in the second-half with Town pinning them back. And not many do that.

Not for the first time recently, Josh Vickers made some crucial saves, but as Warne admitted, sides are now hunting them down. Shrewsbury's press and intensity in the second period was exceptional. The MK Dons however are a different sort of team.

According to Opta, the visitors are enjoying their joint-longest unbeaten league run since Liam Manning's appointment (8 games - W6 D2), while they last went on a longer such run in November 2018 as a League Two side (run of 10). The market has them at a huge 4.47/2 and that is the biggest they have been for a while. In that sequence they have kept four clean sheets and arrive in great shape into Saturday with back-to-back 2-0 successes against Bolton and Charlton.

Manning has got the philosophy, and he has some pretty strong firepower at his disposal as not many teams at this level could have brought in Connor Wickham, although it's been hard for him to displace the craft and speed of Troy Parrott and Mo Eisa.

As always with MK, Scott Twine in the Anytime Scorer market should be looked at. He's 5/2 and hit his 14th of the season on Saturday from midfield against Bolton, and he's a player I have been backing and tipping here a few times recently to end his cold spell. So I was rather frustrated I left him and MK Dons out last weekend.

I was surprised the Under 2.5 was initially in at 1.910/11, as I would have priced it at around 1.748/11. Plus we've had some luck with Correct Score bets lately, and the 0-0 and 1-1 are well worth playing. Remember, the 0-0 price starts to crash from around 10.09/1 to 3.211/5 around the 45 minute mark, so if you are looking to back-to-lay there should be an opportunity to green up with a tight, goalless first-half.

KEY OPTA STAT: Rotherham are unbeaten in each of their last 13 league games at the AESSEAL New York Stadium (W10 D3), the Millers were last on a longer such home run in the Football League between October 2000 and April 2001 (18 games - W15 D3).

Moore starting to see change and Imps look there for the taking

Lincoln City v Sheffield Wednesday
Saturday 5th March, kick-off 15:00

Sheffield Wednesday's progress into a challenging position has gained a huge amount of momentum of late and are just a point behind fourth-placed Oxford. They've won seven of their last eight and the sole defeat came at the hands of Rotherham last month. The recent success against Charlton at Hillsborough put them into the play-off places for the first time since November.

The run of seven wins in eight is their best run since 2012.

They hit five on Tuesday, and hammered Burton 5-2. Barry Bannan scored a pearler, prompting one Wednesday fan to tweet that he really shouldn't be in this division. Hopefully the tweeter meant he should be playing higher and not lower! Bannan had a good game in a quality midfield tridente that involves Massimo Luongo and George Byers. The midfield is now perfectly balanced as they all complement the other, although the match wasn't without its scares and the scoreline somewhat masked one or two hairy moments.

Moore has strived to change the mentality of the club, and the feeling was that the Burton game and "iffy" period in the match could have seen them fold in previous seasons.

I've been opposing Lincoln of late and flagged up their shocking price at 1.768/11 recently when losing at home 0-2 to struggling Gillingham. A run of three straight defeats has placed them just four points off the relegation zone and boss Michael Appleton accused his players of shirking responsibilities against Neil Harris' side.

Nervousness is creeping in, and Appleton is under pressure considering they have been a play-off side in the past. Their home record is poor with just four wins and 10 defeats at Sincil Bank - the most in the league. With depressing regularity, their fragile back-line has been exposed time-and-time again. At times they can play well without the result, but Wednesday have some firepower to worry a team that has conceded 24 at home. Lincoln have a wretched record too, and have won in only one of their last 11 Football League games against Sheffield Wednesday (D5 L5), with that victory coming in March 1978. When the Bay City Rollers were probably number one.

KEY OPTA STAT: Sheffield Wednesday have won consecutive away league games under Darren Moore for the first time - the Owls haven't won three on the bounce on the road since April 2017 under Carlos Carvalhal.

Harris to continue to grind out points

Gillingham v Bolton
Saturday 5th March, kick-off 15:00

Gillingham's survival chances looked rather bleak under Steve Evans, and the decision to part ways with the fiery Scot looks a good decision now as Neil Harris has given the Kent club a fighting chance of staying up.

Since the Evans exit and the embarrassing 2-7 loss to Oxford, the former Millwall man has made them harder to beat, much harder. With two defeats in seven, the points have been most welcome with a pair of 0-1 victories against Crewe and Cambridge.

Indeed, the feature of the recent clashes at Priestfield have been the low-scoring nature. Every home match (four) since the Oxford debacle has hit the Under 2.5, with three hitting Under 1.5. Full credit to Harris for organising a defence to keep three clean sheets out of four at home, and that's the way this match could be going.

I am surprised again at an Under 2.5 price of 1.910/11 and that looks a sensible play. Bolton have lost just two of their last 11 league games (W8 D1), however both defeats have come on their travels, against Burton (1-3) and MK Dons (0-2) and while they look about right at 2.26/5, the hosts have a new-found resilience and could be hard to beat.

KEY OPTA STAT: Bolton have failed to win their last two Football League games against Gillingham (D1 L1), having gone unbeaten in their last six games against them prior (W4 D2).

*Click here for Ian Lamont's League Two tips