League One Saturday Tips: Back Harris for another upset against Sunderland

Stanley to find their form at the Wham again

Accrington Stanley v Cheltenham Town
Saturday 2nd April, kick-off 15:00

The Accrington system is coming into play again for Saturday, and it's the simple one of backing them at home and avoiding them away. We can still get a price of odds-against for Stanley and they have a chance to go above Cheltenham with a game in hand.

The fear is that both are marooned in mid-table with the possibility of a bit of a dead rubber, but I've outlined in a few previews recently that John Coleman's side have collected 11 wins at the Wham this term; which is the most of any team in the lower-half. They've also scored a huge 35 this term, but they concede a few too and games are normally entertaining.

There was perhaps too much entertainment last weekend with the 1-2 loss to Gillingham, a game I had backed Stanley in to prevail.

Defensively they had a shocker as they conceded two goals from set-pieces in a fairly atrocious first 45 minutes of football. "Did we deserve to win on the first-half showing? No. Did we deserve it on the second half? Yes, comfortably, but it doesn't always happen," said Coleman afterwards reflecting on the contrasting halves.

Michael Duff's Cheltenham have lost only one of their last seven Football League games against Accrington (W3 D3), while victory for the Robins will see them do the double over them for the first time since 2011-12. The price of 2/1 doesn't totally excite me, but I can see why the layers aren't giving any gifts with the visitors as they've had a fairly brutal run of fixtures of late against the big-hitters of the division and they gained a very creditable 0-0 at Ipswich in February. They broke up the play very adroitly in that with some dogged defending and good old-fashioned time-wasting.

However, the Robins are far from consistent, and that 0-0 was off the back of a 5-5 against Wycombe. How can you legislate for that? It's why the Under/Over 2.5 Goals prices are so close at 2.1011/10 and 1.9520/21. If pushed, I would lean for goals, but I would rather back a bigger price with the hosts at around 2.35/4, as they'd previously won four on the spin at home.

No player in League One this season has scored more goals away from home than Cheltenham's Alfie May (13), with six of his previous nine league goals coming on the road, and he is 4/1 for the First Goalscorer bet on the Sportsbook and 6/4 Anytime Scorer.

KEY OPTA STAT: Accrington Stanley have lost each of their last two league games, only once this season have they lost three consecutive league fixtures, that being in November when they conceded 11 goals across a three-game spell.

McKenna's run bordering on hypnotic

Ipswich Town v Cambridge United
Saturday 2nd April, kick-off 15:00

Kieran McKenna's appointment to replace Paul Cook earlier in the season as manager of Ipswich is turning out to be the best move of the century. Town looked dead and buried, but the former Manchester United coach has conjured up a superb run to give themselves a fighting chance of the play-offs. A target that seemed most unlikely under Cook. McKenna also has a new Head Of Recruitment following the news that Sam Williams has joined having previously worked at Old Trafford too as an analyst for Ole Gunnar Solksjaer.

Saturday's 1-0 win against Plymouth laid down a huge marker, and rather frustratingly I had gone for the Draw outright and 1-1 in last weekend's column. Sam Morsy's 37th goal proved to be the winner, and not for the first time under McKenna, they kept a clean sheet. Morsy was a favourite of Cook's previously, but he's now playing in the right position and more advanced up the pitch.

Obviously the hosts are prohibitive odds this weekend at 1.454/9, but they have kept 12 clean sheets since December 29th and that should be a good guide to chiselling out a bet. Nine of those shutouts would have landed the Win To Nil bet, and we can back that on the Exchange at 2.1211/10.

Cambridge gained a crucial 1-0 win at Wimbledon last weekend, but that was in stark contrast to some of their previous performances as they'd been hammered for six at Sheffield Wednesday, and conceded seven in two games against Wycombe and Oxford. The Wombles win ended a run of seven away league games without three points, the U's haven't won consecutive away league fixtures in the third tier of English football since February 2001. That's a good indication to stick strongly with the hosts.

Having conceded just six in the 17 games McKenna has been in charge, it could also be worth eyeing up a couple of Correct Score bets. I'll play the 2-0 and 3-0 at 6.611/2 and 10.519/2. An early goal will give us a trade back for the first bet, so the lay can hopefully take care of the second bet.

KEY OPTA STAT: Ipswich have now kept a clean sheet in each of their last six home games in the league for the first time since September 1980 as a top-flight side, the club have never gone seven such games without conceding before.

Can Harris get more out of his plucky Gills?

Sunderland v Gillingham
Saturday 2nd April, kick-off 15:00

Gillingham boss Neil Harris is hoping their tough run-in can inspire to bring out the best in his side as his men prepare for Saturday's trip to the north-east.

Remarkably, they are now up to 19th following a run of just two defeats in seven and a Saturday win at Accrington, a performance that centred on a very organised first-half against a team that were more carefree than what Sunderland will be on Saturday.

"We don't have free hits at the moment because the league table doesn't lie but on the back of Accrington (winning 2-1) it gives us real momentum to go and play and see what the game brings," said Harris.

Alex Pritchard and Nathan Broadhead are both closing in on a return to action, and the key duo have been very influential for Neil who has overseen an unbeaten run of six, and according to Opta, no side in League One this season has won more home games than the Mackems (13 - level with Sheffield Wednesday, Rotherham and Plymouth) - the Black Cats last won more home league games in a single campaign in 2006-07 as a Championship side (15). But backing them at 1.511/2 makes little sense.

Since Harris' first league game in charge of Gillingham, they have amassed 18 points (P12 W5 D3 L4), as many points as in the Gills' previous 27 league games (W3 D9 L15), and that gives us a fighting chance at a massive 7.87/1.

The Black Cats won't have Jermaine Defoe anymore, as the 39-year-old striker recently announced his retirement. That puts a but of pressure on Broadhead to provide the support for Ross Stewart - and he usually is on penalties and scored twice from the spot recently in the huge 0-3 win at Wigan, but I am going to have a go at the Double Chance here as the Kent club not only played well last weekend, but they've produced some good performances against Charlton and Sheffield Wednesday.

KEY OPTA STAT: Sunderland are unbeaten at home against Gillingham in the Football League (W3 D3), although have only won one of the last four (D3).